Identifying “the next” type of player can be critical to winning your fantasy football league.

Finding the next type of player is sometimes a positive outcome for fantasy managers. For example, anyone who drafted Amon-Ra St. Brown last year based on what Cooper Kupp did in 2021 likely made the playoffs.

However, sometimes finding the next type of player is someone fantasy players want to avoid drafting. For example, fantasy players want to avoid drafting the one-year wonder running back.

Today we’re going to look at this year’s Russell Wilson.

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Finding This Year’s Russell Wilson (2023 Fantasy Football)

Russell Wilson’s 2022 Season

Wilson was a fantasy star before last season. The veteran was a top-10 quarterback every year of his career except his rookie season until 2021. His best year came in 2020. That year Wilson had 40 passing touchdowns and averaged 22.5 fantasy points per game, both career highs. More importantly, he averaged 20.5 or more fantasy points in all but one season from 2017 through 2020.

While he was the QB16 in 2021, averaging 17.3 fantasy points per game, the veteran quarterback was much better before suffering a finger injury to his throwing hand. Wilson averaged 2.3 passing touchdowns and 22.4 fantasy points per game before getting hurt in the Week 5 matchup against the Los Angeles Rams.

While the injury only cost him three games, Wilson wasn’t healthy again until the end of the season. The veteran averaged three passing touchdowns and 22.8 fantasy points per game over the final three contests in 2021, scoring 24 or more fantasy points twice.

Everyone had high hopes for Wilson last year. Some even called him an MVP candidate. Unfortunately, everything went wrong. The veteran quarterback had the worst year of his career in 2022. He had only 16 passing touchdowns in 15 games. By comparison, Wilson had 16 passing touchdowns over the first four games of the 2020 season.

Hopefully, the veteran quarterback can bounce back this year. He averaged two passing touchdowns and 20.1 fantasy points per game over his final four contests last season. More importantly, Wilson had 505 passing yards and six total touchdowns in the two games without Nathaniel Hackett on the sidelines, averaging 23.4 fantasy points per contest.

Reportedly the veteran has looked slimmer and more athletic this offseason. With Sean Payton taking over on the sidelines, fantasy players should feel confident drafting Wilson as the 18th quarterback off the board.

However, that doesn’t help fantasy players who drafted the veteran last year. So, which quarterback with a top-12 ADP will bust in 2023?

This Year’s Russell Wilson Is…

Fantasy players should avoid drafting Tua Tagovailoa this season, as he is this year’s Russell Wilson. According to FantasyPros ADP, the fourth-year quarterback is the QB11 off the board, behind Dak Prescott and ahead of Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins and Daniel Jones.

Last year the former Alabama star was the QB15, averaging 17.8 fantasy points per game. While Tagovailoa was the QB10 on a points-per-game basis in 2022, he was inconsistent for fantasy players. Last year the former first-round pick had 60% of his passing touchdowns and over half of his fantasy points for the season in four games against poor defenses.

Furthermore, Tagovailoa had 24% of passing touchdowns and 16.8% of his fantasy production in the Week 2 shootout against the Baltimore Ravens.

By comparison, he averaged only 1.7 passing touchdowns and 12.8 fantasy points per game outside of those four matchups against poor defenses. Tagovailoa would have been the QB25 on a points-per-game basis with that average among quarterbacks that played nine or more games last year. Furthermore, the former Alabama star scored under 16 fantasy points in all but one of those contests.

Hopefully, he will become more consistent in his second year in Mike McDaniel’s offense. However, that’s not the only issue with Tagovailoa.

One of the top stories last year was the quarterback’s health. He dealt with multiple concussions in 2022, including one that cost Tagovailoa the final two games of the regular season and the playoff matchup against the Buffalo Bills. Furthermore, he had the scary hit and concussion in the Week 4 Thursday night matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals that cost him the next two games.

Hopefully, the young quarterback can stay healthy this season. However, I’m not betting on it. While it wasn’t to the same degree as Tagovailoa, Wilson missed time in 2021 and again in 2022 with injuries.

The other thing that concerns me with the Miami quarterback is his receiving unit. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are arguably the top 1-2 punch at wide receiver in the NFL. However, the rest of the receiving core is underwhelming at best. Hill has missed only 5.3% of the games in his career, while Waddle has missed one contest in his two years in the NFL. However, injuries can pop up at any time. Tagovailoa’s fantasy production likely falls off a cliff if either star wide receiver misses significant time.

Last year the wide receiver duo accounted for 194 receptions on 287 targets for 3,066 receiving yards and 15 receiving touchdowns. By comparison, no other player had more than 32 receptions, 52 targets, 417 receiving yards, and five touchdowns last season. However, those guys were Mike Gesicki and Trent Sherfield, who are no longer with the team.

More importantly, Hill and Waddle accounted for 52.7% of the Dolphins’ receptions, 49.1% of the targets, 64.3% of the receiving yards, and 50% of the receiving touchdowns last season.

While Denver’s passing attack isn’t built around two players like in Miami, Wilson didn’t have a full set of weapons last year, hurting his fantasy production. Tim Patrick missed the year with a torn ACL. Javonte Williams only played in four games because of a knee injury. Meanwhile, Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton missed two games each, while Greg Dulcich missed seven contests in his rookie year.

Despite all the red flags, Tagovailoa is higher in my fantasy rankings than Wilson. However, I’d rather draft Wilson at his ADP (144.3 | QB18) over Tagovailoa (94.7 | QB11) at his. Furthermore, fantasy players should draft Anthony Richardson (ADP 122.3 | QB16) and one of Geno Smith (ADP 118.7 | QB15), Jared Goff (ADP 127.7 | QB17), or Wilson in 1QB leagues over Tagovailoa.

More ‘Finding This Year’s’ Series

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• Finding This Year’s Christian Kirk
• Finding This Year’s Josh Jacobs
• Finding This Year’s Dameon Pierce
• Finding This Year’s Dalton Schultz
• Finding This Year’s Jamaal Williams

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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.