Discover a diverse range of fantasy football sleepers, from under-the-radar gems with substantial upside to late-round steals who can outperform their average draft positions. This comprehensive list of players, spanning from Round 8 to the double-digit rounds, aims to provide potential league-winning options while offering tremendous value. I selected the start of Round 8 (picks 85 and beyond in a traditional 12-team league) as my cut-off for sleepers because I’ve often found that’s the range in the draft when we start to see breakout RBs emerge.
The main goal is that one or several of them beat their average draft positions (ADP) by a significant margin, akin to performances from Rhamondre Stevenson, Tyler Allgeier, Dameon Pierce, Jerick McKinnon, Isiah Pacheco, D’Onta Foreman, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk, Garrett Wilson, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones and Tyler Conklin last season.
Discover a diverse range of fantasy football sleepers, from under-the-radar gems with substantial upside to late-round steals who can outperform their average draft positions. This comprehensive list of players, spanning from Round 8 to the double-digit rounds, aims to provide potential league-winning options while offering tremendous value. I selected the start of Round 8 (picks 85 and beyond in a traditional 12-team league) as my cut-off for sleepers because I’ve often found that’s the range in the draft when we start to see breakout RBs emerge.
The main goal is that one or several of them beat their average draft positions (ADP) by a significant margin, akin to performances from Rhamondre Stevenson, Tyler Allgeier, Dameon Pierce, Jerick McKinnon, Isiah Pacheco, D’Onta Foreman, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk, Garrett Wilson, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones and Tyler Conklin last season.
Be prepared to find hidden talents across all teams, including those in unexpected situations like the Arizona Cardinals. My only requirement is that these players possess ADPs outside the top-84 players (in some capacity because this can vary by draft platform). It’s too soon for me to be attacked by “he’s not a sleeper in MY league” social emedia trolls.
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For the avid fantasy football enthusiasts, we’ve even included some deep sleepers who are perfect for 20-round-plus best ball leagues and deep 40-man dynasty rosters. Get ready to make strategic moves and uncover the next breakout stars!
For my favorite non-sleeper picks, be sure to check out the following articles:
- 15 Players to Draft: Erickson’s Top Draft Targets (2023 Fantasy Football)
- Andrew Erickson’s Perfect 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy, Advice & Targets
- Andrew Erickson’s Fantasy Football Rankings, Advice & Cheat Sheet (2023)
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Fantasy Football Sleepers
Arizona Cardinals
TE Trey McBride
Rooke tight end Trey McBride was the TE11 from Weeks 14-18 as his role expanded due to injuries on the Cardinals roster. His major highlight came against the Falcons in Week 17, where he caught 7 balls for 78 yards and 1 TD on ten targets with Marquise Brown active in the lineup. That earned him a top-3 weekly fantasy finish, making him one of just 23 unique tight ends to do so. Obviously, there are a lot of question marks about the potential QB play in Arizona this season. Veteran Zach Ertz also remains on the roster, but he is coming off a November 13th torn ACL. But we are just looking for any opportunity when it comes to sleeper tight ends. Ertz is on the PUP list and will be 33 by November. McBride should be able to assert himself as the Cardinals TE1 to start the season and hold the job if/when Ertz returns. His decorated college profile – 1,125 receiving yards and 30% target rate per route run in 2021 – suggests he can post points with a starting role. It’s not crazy to think he could be the No. 2 pass-catcher on this offense in 2023.
Deep Sleepers:
WR Michael Wilson, QB Clayton Tune, WR Greg Dortch
At 6-foot-2 and 213 pounds, 3rd-rounder Michael Wilson easily stands out amongst the “Micky Mouse Club House” array of Arizona WRs. Since the team has moved from DeAndre Hopkins, Wilson is slated for starting duties on the outside, while his smaller teammates duke it out for slot usage. If healthy, I expect Wilson to be a diamond in the rough for the Cardinals. The redshirt senior came back for a fifth collegiate season due to the COVID-19 pandemic to boost his draft stock after more missed games due to lower-body/foot injuries. He posted a 20% dominator rating in just six games with only a 10% target share. But if you pro-rate his dominator rating removing his games missed, his dominator rating jumps to 34%. He made the most of every target, finishing top-8 in broken missed tackles and yards created after the catch among his classmates per Sports Info Solutions. His 2022 season was easily his most productive since his sophomore year when he first broke out. In 2019 at 19 years old, he caught 56 balls for 672 receiving yards and 5 receiving touchdowns.
Wilson is already running with the 1s at Cardinals training camp and has been a frequent target of non-Kyler Murray quarterbacks. As a rookie drafted by the current regime, he should see plenty of playing time.
Arizona drafted Houston’s quarterback Clayton Tune in Round 5, as a potential stop-gap option while Murray rehabs from his torn ACL. Tune was super accurate last season, posting Sports Info Solutions’ highest on-target percentage (78%) among the 2023 QB Draft Class. He also led the class in passing yards per game (313) and touchdowns per game (3.5). Wouldn’t surprise me at all if the 6-foot-3 and 220-pound quarterback starts games in 2023 as the Cardinals look to lock up next year’s No. 1 overall pick. The veteran QBs on the roster will all be free agents at the end of the season.
Greg Dortch has shown the ability to increase his production or command targets at a high rate when there are injuries to teammates around them. In the six games Dortch played at least 70% of the snaps, he averaged seven receptions, nine targets and 69 receiving yards per game. Considering the long injury track record of fellow slot WR, Rondale Moore, Dortch could easily emerge as the team’s starting slot WR. Moore has played in just 8 games over the last two seasons with at least a 70% snap share.
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Atlanta Falcons
Desmond Ridder stands out to me as a sleeper. With Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts and Drake London at his disposal, one would think Ridder can facilitate an offense that can win games in 2023. And there’s some fantasy sleeper appeal with his game considering he offers mobility. Ridder rushed for over 2,700 yards during his four-year college career (58 per game). That combined with elite weaponry, suggests he can make some noise as a late-round fantasy quarterback in 2023. Recall that Marcus Mariota was a top-20 fantasy quarterback last season in points per game. And who can forget how well Ryan Tannehill played for fantasy under Arthur Smith’s coaching in Tennessee? It’s an offense that relies heavily on play action and Ridder was PFF’s 3rd-highest graded QB when using play action during his final season at Cincinnati. No. 1, you ask, in last year’s class? Brock Purdy. Mic drop.
Ridder should also benefit from facing the league’s second-easiest schedule, based on forecasted win totals.
Deep Sleepers:
RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson
With the addition of Bijan Robinson, it’s hard to envision Cordarelle Patterson taking too many carries in the backfield. But based on his dynamic playmaking ability, he could be used more like a traditional WR. That doesn’t necessarily make him that much better of an option than most WRs in superior situations, but getting a WR with RB-slot eligibility has its perks. During Patterson’s 2021 breakout campaign with the Falcons, he finished tenth in yards per route among all RBs and WRs.
WR Mack Hollins
Based on his salary, Mack Hollins will likely fill in as the Falcons’ No. 2 WR. He’s been turning heads at Atlanta’s training camp, juking out defenders with his hair flowing freely behind him. He played a full-time role in the Raiders’ offense last season, finishing 10th in routes run per dropback (93%) with a total of 1,153 air yards as the clear-cut No. 2 wide receiver in Las Vegas. He might be doing more “wind sprints” with alphas like Drake London and Kyle Pitts active in the lineup, but a potential full-time role shouldn’t be scoffed at in deeper formats. He was one of just 12 WRs last season to log 1,000-plus snaps on offense.
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Baltimore Ravens
WR Zay Flowers
Zay Flowers spent four seasons at Boston College simply dominating as the team’s best wide receiver. He posted a career 33% dominator rating — highest in the draft class. His senior year was truly special as the 5-foot-9, 182-pound wideout racked up 78 receptions for 1,077 yards and 12 receiving TDs. Per Sports Info Solution, Flowers finished 3rd in the class in unique routes run, 6th in target share (30%) and third in deep route percentage (49%). With first-round draft capital and projected inside/slot usage that will work well with QB Lamar Jackson…don’t count out Flowers emerging as Baltimore’s WR1. The best ability is availability… which has not been the case for either Odell Beckham Jr. or Rashod Bateman. Targeting highly drafted rookie WRs tends to be a +EV strategy anyway. 26% of 1st round WRs drafted since 2013 have finished as top-24 options. 32% inside the top-36. Rookie WRs ADPs often do not fully capture the upside they possess. Draft them all day every day.
Deep Sleepers:
RB Gus Edwards, TE Isaiah Likely
Gus Edwards is a full go for the off-season minicamp. He was efficient last season, averaging 4.8 yards per carry and 3.48 yards after contact per attempt (7th-best in the NFL). The Gus Bus is a solid high-end handcuff option for J.K. Dobbins, who has started camp on the PUP list. Dobbins’ ongoing drama due to a contract dispute is potentially ruffling feathers between the two sides, which may not end well for the RB slated to hit free agency in 2023. Dobbins is missing critical reps learning a new offense, which could put him behind the eight ball. New Ravens RB, Melvin Gordon, recently revealed that Dobbins is just “sitting out” because he wants a new deal.
Isaiah Likely played two games without Mark Andrews last season: Averaged nearly 14 PPR points per and 9 targets per game. His 3 top-12 finishes were the same as Kyle Pitts last season. Likely has great upside if Andrews gets hurt and could provide standalone value if Baltimore decides to deploy heavy 12 personnel. Or if their new WR corps fails to stay healthy.
So far through training camp, Likely has stood out despite all the new WR additions. Per the Athletic’s Jeff Zrebiec, the Ravens want him more involved in Year 2.
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Buffalo Bills
RB James Cook
As it stands right now, James Cook qualifies as a “sleeper” based on his RB30 ADP. The team has said all the right things about their second-year back, with reports surfacing that they want him to handle a three-down workload. Usually puff hype pieces like this make ADPs skyrocket, but Cook remains at a very draftable price. Especially considering the injury to Nyheim Hines, which locks in Cook for pass-catching duties.
Now before you get too carried away with Cook as the next Christian McCaffrey…note that GM Brandon Beane says that Cook and newcomer Damien Harris will be the Ying and the yang in the backfield. But even if Cook doesn’t earn every snap a 60/40 split in a high-powered offense is a bet worth making for a pass-catching explosive running back.
James Cook was used in a limited fashion during his rookie season, topping out at just a 56% snap share in Week 18 versus the Patriots. However, it should be noted that Cook forced a 60-40 split from Week 13 onward with veteran Devin Singletary. The first-year rusher averaged a 40% snap share over the team’s final seven games, matching Singletary point-for-point (RB25 in points per game). Cook was also the superior rusher in the season’s totality capping off his year by averaging 5.3 yards per carry (5th). He earned PFF’s No. 1 ranking in breakaway run rate (44%). The spurts of explosiveness and receiving ability have worked in Cook’s favor as he enters Year 2 as Buffalo’s Day 1 starter with Harris and Latavius Murray as his main competition.
In 2022, Singletary finished third among all running backs in route participation (57%). Considering Cook’s 27% target rate per route run – equal or better than Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2022, 5th among all RBs with at least 30 targets – I fully expect him to take on a much larger role as a receiver in a Bills passing attack that is shrouded with question marks behind Stefon Diggs.
Damien Harris had a lackluster 2022 campaign with the New England Patriots, playing in just 11 games due to injuries and averaging only 8.8 fantasy points and 49 rushing yards per game when he was on the field. However, he has found a new home with the Buffalo Bills, who signed him to a one-year contract to add more size to their backfield. With the Bills prioritizing a more balanced run-pass offense this offseason and improvements made to their offensive line, Harris could be in for a bounce-back season. While Rhamondre Stevenson was the primary RB for the Patriots last season, Harris could carve out a role as the Bills’ featured red-zone back. In 2022, former Bills RB Devin Singletary totaled just four rushing TDs inside the 10-yard on 16 carries. Harris scored just as many times from inside the ten-yard line as Stevenson (three times) despite being out-carried in that area of the field 19 to six. However, it’s worth noting that QB Josh Allen is often used as a goal-line rusher, which could limit Harris’ touchdown upside. But we have seen quarterbacks run less at the goal line as they get older, so there’s still a chance that Harris flirts with double-digit scores should his arrival mean the team leans on him more as their preferred rusher near the pylon to protect their franchise quarterback in the long term. Harris has landed in a situation that could provide him with plenty of scoring opportunities in 2023.
Deep Sleepers:
Rookie Dalton Kincaid is an intriguing option after the Buffalo Bills selected him in the first round of this year’s draft. Kincaid projects as a hybrid slot receiver in the Bills’ offense. Dawson Knox led all tight ends last season in passer rating generated (137.5) from the slot last season.
The rookie tight end spent his first two college seasons at San Diego playing a limited role. But he made the most of every touch he got, averaging nearly 19 yards per reception. His 21.0 yards per reception in 2019 ranked second among all TEs in both the FCS and FBS. After the impressive showing, Kincaid transferred to Utah in 2020 but missed the majority of the season due to COVID implications. It wasn’t until 2021 that Kincaid truly got his shot, and he absolutely dominated. Kincaid posted a 25% dominator rating as the 11th-highest-graded tight end in the nation per PFF. Kincaid followed up his impressive 2021 campaign nicely in 2022 with another eight-touchdown season. His dominator rating jumped to 26% as he led the nation in PFF receiving grade and finished 3rd in yards per route run. Kincaid led Utah with 70 receptions (5.8 receptions per game, 22% target share), the most by any tight end in the nation. At 246 pounds, Kincaid is on the smaller side of the tight end spectrum, making him perfect for the slot in the NFL. He ran 55% of his routes from the slot in 2022.
WR Deonte Harty
A sneaky addition by the Bills this offseason was adding former Saints Pro Bowler Deonte Harty. He was hurt all last season after an impressive 2021 campaign. Worcester, Massachusetts’ finest saw an extremely high target rate per route run in 2021 at 27% and finished sixth in yards per route run (2.69). That was enough to earn him a 2-year deal worth $9.5 million ($4.75 million guaranteed) with 5.5 million coming in 2023. It’s more than double the contract the team gave Isaiah McKenzie (2 years, $4.4 million) last season. The signing also makes Harty the second-highest-paid WR on Buffalo, with Gabe Davis still on his rookie deal. I’m confident that Harty can deliver fantasy goodness if a starting opportunity opens in the Bills’ offense. The best part is he’s free in all fantasy formats. Buffalo is currently trotting out former 5th-rounder Khalil Shakir and/or veteran journeyman Trent Sherfield as their WR3, after drafting only rookie WR Justin Shorter in Round 5 during this year’s draft.
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Carolina Panthers
Jonathan Mingo, the Carolina Panthers’ second-round pick from Ole Miss, is a compelling choice to lead all rookies in receiving yards in 2023, offering enticing +1400 odds, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Mingo possesses an impressive size/speed combination, standing at 6-foot-2, 220 pounds, and boasting 4.46 speed. This physical profile, coupled with his ability to adjust to balls downfield and break tackles, makes him an appealing option for big receiving totals. Mingo’s downfield prowess should mesh well with his rookie quarterback, Bryce Young. In 2022, a notable 31% of his targets came on throws of 20-plus yards downfield, trailing only Marvin Mims in the class (38%). Remarkably, Mingo earned a superb 99.9 PFF grade when targeted downfield, equivalent to his draft classmates Jalin Hyatt and Jordan Addison. Furthermore, he excelled in generating yardage after the catch, ranking 10th in the FBS among wide receivers with at least 80 targets in yards after the catch per reception (7.5). Although Mingo had a breakout season at Ole Miss, amassing 51 catches for 861 receiving yards and five touchdowns, his trajectory was impacted by an injury in 2021. Nonetheless, he showcased his potential by averaging over 100 receiving yards per game in the first three games of the season before being sidelined. The Panthers receiving corps features two veterans in Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark Jr., but Mingo has a strong chance to emerge as the team’s primary wide receiver in his rookie year. With his draft capital, an immediate opportunity for playing time, and ability to generate significant yardage both after the catch and downfield, Mingo presents a savvy bet to lead all rookies in receiving yards. It’s worth noting that Panthers General Manager Scott Fitterer previously drafted a wide receiver from Ole Miss in the second round, DK Metcalf, back in 2019. In his first year, Metcalf finished third among rookies in receiving yards, while leading in targets and routes run. This precedent adds further credibility to Mingo’s potential impact.
Chuba Hubbard finished the 2022 season as PFF’s 21st-highest-graded rusher averaging 4.9 yards per carry. He also flashed efficiency in the receiving game ending the year tied for 6th in yards per route run (1.55) with Austin Ekeler. Only Derrick Henry bested him in yards per route run over expectation among RBs (+0.67).
After the team traded Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers, Hubbard’s role increased from Week 7 onward as he was able to carve out a 1B role in the backfield alongside D’Onta Foreman. With a three-down skillset, Hubbard has massive fantasy football appeal as a handcuff to Miles Sanders in 2023. Hubbard also has a chance to capture the main RB receiving role in the Panthers backfield.
Deep Sleepers:
WR D.J. Chark Jr.
D.J. Chark Jr. did exactly what he was required to do in the 2022 Lions’ offense: operate as the team’s primary deep/perimeter wide receiver threat while rookie Jameson Williams slowly rehabbed from a torn ACL. Chark led the team in air yards share (30%) when healthy and in total deep targets (15). And when he came back to a full-time role from his early-season injury, Chark ended on an extremely high note. From Weeks 13-17, the former Jaguar averaged 10.5 fantasy points and 61 receiving yards per game. He went over 90 receiving yards in half of his last six games played. At just 26 years old, Chark has the exact archetype to be Bryce Young‘s favorite vertical threat. He is also a dark horse to be the Panthers’ No. 1 WR, with the entire pass-catching corps revamped from a season ago.
WR Terrace Marshall Jr.
From Week 7 onward last season, Terrace Marshall Jr. ranked 1st in yards per reception, 9th in YAC/reception and 13th in aDOT. Jaylen Waddle, Christian Watson and A.J. Brown only other three WRs to rank to have a 13.0-plus ADOT and top-10 YAC/rec mark. Marshall’s yards per route run ranked 36th (1.59), over that span. He also finished 7th in yards per route run above expectation (+0.28).
With what looks like a wide-open WR depth chart, Marshall has a chance for a career year in his third season.
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Chicago Bears
Meet Roschon Johnson, the Bears’ fourth-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Despite sitting behind Bijan Robinson at Texas, the 8th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Johnson managed to post an impressive 49% missed tackle rate and finished fourth in yards after contact per attempt among the 2023 draft class. With bell-cow size at 6 feet and 219 pounds and tenacity to match, Johnson has the potential to become a major player in the Bears’ backfield. Johnson only started five games in his 47 total games played as a Longhorn, but his size and athleticism caught the attention of the Bears, who drafted him with the hope that he can compete with veterans D’Onta Foreman and Khalil Herbert for snaps. Despite being a mid-round pick, Johnson has a good chance to rise the depth chart and make an impact early on, especially since he won’t have to compete with the likes of an elite stud like Robinson for playing time.
In fact, don’t be surprised if Johnson beats out Foreman by the time training camp concludes. His reliable work on special teams and pass protection — 4th-highest graded pass-blocker in the 2023 RB class per PFF in 2022 — should earn him early playing time, and if he can continue to display his impressive ability to make defenders miss, he could end up being a steal for fantasy football managers. Keep an eye on Johnson as a potential sleeper pick who could pay big dividends down the road. Chicago has the fifth-easiest schedule overall and they also boast a juicy playoff schedule (CLE, ARI, ATL) that could benefit whichever Bears RB emerges late into the season.
Darnell Mooney ranked 12th in air yards share (37%) and 15th in target share (27%) in his 11 healthy games played in 2022. If he can return to 100% off a late November broken ankle, the fourth-year wide receiver can play an integral role in Fields’ growth as a passer in 2023. Specifically, the two should be able to connect on Fields’ long ball, providing Mooney with spiked fantasy weeks. I’d also bet on Mooney emerging as the team’s primary slot receiver, with D.J. Moore and Chase Claypool operating from the outside in 3 WR sets.
From the start of 2021 until Mooney’s injury in Week 12 of 2022, he ranks 5th among ALL WRs in team target share at 27.1%.
Deep Sleepers:
D’Onta Foreman‘s performance in 2022 with the Panthers was enough to convince the Bears to sign him to a one-year contract worth $3 million. He joins a crowded backfield with Khalil Herbert, Travis Homer, and 2023 fourth-round pick Roschon Johnson. While Foreman’s late-season breakout was impressive, his inconsistency raises questions about his potential usage in 2023. From Week 7 on, Foreman was the RB21 in fantasy scoring and RB22 in fantasy points per game. He ranked fourth in the NFL in rushing yards (852) over that span. But his production wasn’t consistent week-to-week, as he rushed for more than 110 yards in half of his last 10 games while finishing with fewer than 40 rushing yards in four of the others. His weekly half-point PPR fantasy finishes over those last 10 games were RB13, RB5, RB42, RB9, RB48, RB27, RB27, RB70, RB3, and RB53. Additionally, Foreman was not involved in the passing game, recording only five receptions as the team’s starter. Despite his potential, Foreman will have to compete with Herbert, Homer, and Johnson for snaps in the Bears’ backfield. While Herbert has shown the most promise on limited opportunities to the current staff, it’s hard to predict how the workload will be divided among the trio of veteran backs, especially with a fourth option added in the form of Johnson. Fantasy managers should keep an eye on Foreman’s usage during training camp and preseason to gauge his potential value for the upcoming season. He could easily be cut or emerge as the Bears RB1 given the wide range of outcomes regarding Chicago’s backfield.
As of this writing, Foreman has been splitting first-team reps with Herbert. Johnson missed a recent practice with an undisclosed injury.
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Cincinnati Bengals
Irv Smith Jr. has still yet to turn 25, but injuries have plagued him over the last two seasons. His impressive sophomore campaign seems like a distant memory, more than an actual way to project him moving forward. At least Smith was able to return from the high-ankle sprain that placed him on IR in 2022, and he will get the chance to be fully healthy during off-season activities. Before his injury in Week 8, ISJ was the TE23 in points per game (5.7) and caught at least two passes in all but one game. The former second-round pick still has talent and could easily rebound on a high-powered Bengals offense that features tight ends plenty in the passing game. His 20% target rate per route run ranked 12th among all tight ends with at least 30 targets in 2022.
Deep Sleepers:
RB Chris Evans
The former Michigan Wolverine finished as PFF’s fifth-highest graded receiver and 10th-best pass-blocker at the running back position in 2021. His 2.11 yards per route run ranked fourth-best among all RBs, suggesting he has a legitimate shot to take over third-down duties in the Bengals’ backfield vacated by Samaje Perine. But there’s a case to be made that he would also thrive if an injury should occur to Mixon with an equally excellent rushing skill set. Evans’ elusive rating ranked No. 1, and his yards after contact per attempt (4.05) ranked fourth. Fantasy gamers got a glimpse of Evans’ potential in a feature role in Week 18, 2021 when the Bengals rested their starters with their playoff spot secured. Evans played 56% of the snaps in the regular-season finale, compiling 13.9 fantasy points – seven carries for 35 yards and four catches for 24 yards on five targets.
Helps Evans’ sleeper appeal that fellow Bengals RB suffered a mild ankle sprain, making it less likely he earns the No. 2 job.
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Cleveland Browns
WR Elijah Moore
Elijah Moore is in a brand-new situation with the Cleveland Browns and could easily emerge as the No. 2 WR on the offense. Because the talent is THERE. Moore was the WR2 overall during his last stretch of six games during his rookie season, despite catching passes from Mike White, Zach Wilson, and Josh Johnson. I am buying Moore with the hopes that he recaptures that same fantasy ceiling with an upgraded quarterback and a new situation in 2023. There’s a path where he is easily second on the team in targets, and I wouldn’t completely rule out him out-targeting Cooper after we saw Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones (a free agent at the end of the season) post similar production at times in 2022. He should project as the team’s locked-and-loaded starting slot WR, with rookie third-rounder Cedric Tillman pushing DPJ for snaps on the perimeter.
Cooper’s status as a “fake alpha” always seems to improve the efficiency of the No. 2 WRs he plays alongside, which further bolsters the case for Moore to hit value in 2023. Names like Michael Crabtree, Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, and Donovan Peoples-Jones all thrived with Cooper. I expect Moore to be the latest name to benefit, as Deshaun Watson‘s new favorite vertical target from the slot. Watson posted the league’s second-highest passer rating targeting the slot in his final year in Houston (112.4).
TE David Njoku
Only Travis Kelce saw more red-zone targets among tight ends than David Njoku last season, but he scored just three times. If Deshaun Watson‘s TD rate positively regresses closer to his career rate (5.8%) another year back into football, Njoku will be a top fantasy tight end in 2023.
The soon-to-be 27-year-old could explode, considering his 2022 usage as a full-time player with top-10 route participation. The athletic pass-catcher finished last season sixth in PFF receiving grade and inside the top 10 in several other efficiency metrics, including yards after the catch and yards per route run. It was easily his best professional season since 2018.
Deep Sleepers:
WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR Cedric Tillman
Cedric Tillman operated as Tennessee’s No. 1 WR as a junior in 2021, posting a 32 percent dominator rating. The 21-year-old took over the WR1 chair formerly owned by future Chargers wide receiver Joshua Palmer and narrowly outproduced another future NFL player, Velus Jones Jr. Tillman totaled 1,081 receiving yards, caught 12 TDs and generated the nation’s highest passer rating when targeted (155.8) but elected to forego the NFL and return to school in 2022. He was limited to six games after suffering an ankle injury and was out-shined greatly by his teammate and 2023 draft prospect Jalin Hyatt who took home the Fred Biletnikoff Award. However, in the five games that Tillman played healthy, he outproduced Hyatt with more targets (56, 30% target share vs. 40, 21% target share), catches (35 vs. 30), and yards (401 vs. 367). Tillman also yielded a higher aDOT (14.3 vs. 11.2). Tillman’s lack of early-career production and age entering the league (23) definitely raise eyebrows about what kind of ceiling he can offer. But his size at 6-foot-3 and 213 pounds helps him literally stand out as a prototypical “X” receiver in a class that is severely lacking big-bodied receivers. Jonathan Mingo and Bryce Ford-Wheaton were the only other rookie WRs at the Combine to measure at least 6-foot-3 while also running a sub 4.54 40-yard dash. That profile is worth gravitating toward at the cost of a third-round rookie pick. After all, Tillman was selected in the 3rd round of the 2023 NFL Draft (74th overall) by the Cleveland Browns. He can emerge as a big-bodied perimeter target for Deshaun Watson for the foreseeable future with Donovan Peoples-Jones hitting the open market in 2024.
Peoples-Jones shocked the world last season during his career year. He finished the year as the WR40, finishing with highs in receiving yards (839), receptions (61) and targets (95). DPJ was surprisingly consistent, finishing as a top-36 rate in the same amount of games (56%) as teammate Amari Cooper. However, the big spike weeks never came to fruition, as he never posted a week inside the top-12. With Watson potentially returning to form in 2023, we could see Peoples-Jones take another step forward if he can maintain the WR2 job on the Browns. Last season, his role was excellent as he ran a route on 92% of dropbacks (14th, 36th in routes run per game).
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