Matt Barbato | Wed, Aug 16th 2023, 7:14am EDT

Fantasy Football Running Back Strategy, Tiers, Targets & Fades (2023)

If I could use one word to describe the state of the running back position entering the 2023 season, it would be doubt.

There is more trepidation about the position — particularly at the top — than perhaps we’ve ever seen before. It certainly doesn’t help that NFL teams apparently don’t value the position much, as studs like Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, and Josh Jacobs have all failed to earn long-term contract extensions.

Currently, only five running backs are going inside the first round of 12-team, standard league drafts, per FantasyPros Average Draft Position. Our Expert Consensus Rankings have the same sentiment, with just five tailbacks ranked inside the top 12. Heck, Justin Jefferson is the top-ranked player as of right now in standard formats.

Despite all of this uncertainty, running back remains the most scarce position in fantasy football. And while the Zero RB strategy sounds good in theory, I’ve always felt it’s harder to execute in reality.

The question is whether the market is overreacting or providing a glimpse at the future of fantasy football.

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Matt Barbato’s Running Back Strategy for 2023 Fantasy Football

The uncertainty and negativity at running back offer a buying opportunity, especially early on. While I love Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and the other elite wide receivers, I still prefer to go running back off the bat, especially if I’m picking early in Round 1.

Obviously, injury risk is much higher for running backs than for wide receivers. But running back is still the more scarce position with much wider gaps between tiers. Jefferson is a stud, but I’m comfortable getting 80% of Jefferson with a receiver like CeeDee Lamb, who offers close to as much weekly upside anyways.

I’m most likely taking Christian McCaffrey, Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler, and Saquon Barkley ahead of Jefferson if I’m picking in the top 5. As of right now, I’m also buying Taylor and Jacobs as first-round picks unless their situations worsen.

Should You Take the Shot on Bijan Robinson?

You’re on the clock in Round 1, and Bijan Robinson is on the board. Do you take the chance to hitch your fantasy wagons to a rookie?

Past precedent offers mixed results. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was a borderline first-round pick and completely let you down. However, Robinson has drawn more comparisons to Barkley as a prospect, and we know how incredible Barkley was in his rookie season.

I’ll take the shot on Robinson if I’m picking in the back end of the first round. But I’m not going out of my way to pick him over more established options like McCaffrey, Chubb, Ekeler, Barkley, Derrick Henry, or Jacobs and Taylor if they are back with their teams by Week 1.

The best-case scenario for Robinson is a season we’ve already seen the aforementioned backs produce. For that reason, I prefer to take the known commodities over the unknown ones.

If I miss out, so be it. But remember this: you can’t win your draft in Round 1, but you can certainly lose it. Keep that in mind when assessing the risk-reward proposition of taking Robinson in your draft.

How to Handle the 2023 “RB Dead Zone”

The Running Back Dead Zone is generally referred to as rounds 3-6, which, historically speaking, has been an area in drafts where running backs have performed poorly compared to wide receivers drafted in a similar range. This year’s dead zone feels a bit more hopeful than in previous seasons. Here are some players I’m targeting in this range.

Cam Akers (RB – LAR) (ADP 36) finished 2022 on a high note after emerging from Sean McVay’s doghouse. He’s two years removed from an Achilles injury, has little competition on the depth chart, and should benefit from a healthy Matthew Stafford and offensive line.
David Montgomery (RB – DET) (ADP 39)left Chicago to potentially assume the early-down work and potential red zone role in what should be a prolific Lions offense. Montgomery isn’t a dazzling talent, but he’s a solid, workmanlike back who walks into a role that made Jamaal Williams a fantasy darling.
Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI) (ADP 53) could inherit the starting gig left behind by Montgomery in Chicago. Herbert has balled out when given a chance to start. He averaged 117 rushing yards in two starts in relief of Montgomery last season. The talent is obvious; it’s up to Chicago’s coaching staff to see it.
Honorable mentions: Isiah Pacheco could see a greater work share in his second season, and his situation gives him a decent weekly upside. James Conner seems forgotten about because of the negative sentiment surrounding Arizona, but he’s a lock for touches if he’s healthy. Speaking of touches, Miles Sanders should be a lock for a significant work share even though he leaves Philadelphia for Carolina. And speaking of Philadelphia, both D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny intrigue me as high-upside RB3s. My preference is Swift, who feels like the ultimate post-hype sleeper this season.

Late-Round RB Strategy

By Rounds 9 and 10, I aim to have the bulk of my receiving depth, as well as a starting quarterback, already in place. This allows me to take flyers on running backs with talent and/or situational upside. With such a high rate of injury for tailbacks, I go into every season essentially assuming I’ll lose a starting RB to injury for at least a couple of games. That’s why building depth at tailback is critical to help fill the gaps.

Here are some names I’m targeting toward the tail end of my drafts:

I find it curious that Jeff Wilson is being drafted after rookies De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. Wilson was the more effective runner once he was traded to Miami, averaging 4.7 yards per carry and scoring three touchdowns. While Miami could definitely leverage a committee approach, I could also see the Dolphins running the ball more to reduce Tua Tagovailoa‘s exposure to hits. Wilson is better than Mostert and younger than Achane, yet he’s the cheapest of the three.
Tank Bigsb y feels destined to serve as the goal-line vulture in Jacksonville alongside Travis Etienne. While Etienne could get the bulk of the work between the 20s, Bigsby could see his fair share of early-down and red zone work as a rookie.
Jaylen Warren intrigues me as well and could end up going awfully late in drafts. I get the hunch Najee Harris‘ job as Pittsburgh’s lead back isn’t quite as secure as we might think. And there were stretches where Warren outperformed Harris last year.
Keep an eye on Zonovan Knight as the preseason continues. There’s a chance Breece Hall isn’t healthy for Week 1. And while Michael Carter is listed as Hall’s primary backup, Knight may be the more effective back between the tackles. He and rookie Israel Abanikanda could be last-round flyers if Hall doesn’t return to practice and the Jets don’t end up signing Dalvin Cook.

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