Preseason is fun, but we’re ready for the good stuff. Another week or so of fantasy drafts, and then we’ll be watching NFL games that count.

As we enter the home stretch of fantasy draft season, FantasyPros analysts Derek Brown, Andrew Erickson and Pat Fitzmaurice continue a series of preseason roundtables by discussing players in whom they’ve gained or lost confidence over the last month, how to handle the Buccaneers’ top fantasy performers, favorite late-round targets and more.

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Which player have you gained the most confidence in based on the preseason? Who do you feel much more comfortable drafting now than you did a month ago?

Pat Fitzmaurice: Dameon Pierce. I’ve been a fan of his for a while, but it was hard to tell what Houston’s signing of Devin Singletary would mean for Pierce, particularly after Pierce seemed to run out of gas during the second half of his rookie season. Pierce has taken nearly all the snaps with the Texans’ starters in the preseason, making Singletary look like a pure backup rather than a platoon partner. The limitations of the Houston offense might prevent Pierce from being a top-12 RB, but the possibility that he’ll be used as a workhorse makes me feel good about drafting Pierce as a low-end RB2. (I have him ranked RB18.)

Derek Brown: My conviction has never wavered regarding Roschon Johnson. My bet all along has been that Johnson will eventually take over the Chicago backfield. Looking at his preseason production and usage, I remain steadfast in my belief. Johnson has been electric as a ballcarrier, ranking 12th in elusive rating and 13th in yards after contact per attempt (per PFF) while flashing a three-down skill set. Johnson’s ability as a blocker can allow him to carve out a workhorse role in his rookie season. He ranked 14th in pass-blocking grade with the most preseason pass protection reps on the team (per PFF). Johnson will be the lead back in 2023, and it won’t take as long for him to establish himself as many might believe if his exemplary preseason bleeds over into real action with the regular-season lights on.

Andrew Erickson: I was more than ready to adjust my priors on the Travis Etienne/Tank Bigsby situation in the Jacksonville backfield should the preseason usage have called for it, but it simply didn’t. When we finally saw substantial reps from the first-team offense in preseason Week 3, Etienne led with a 65% snap share. He played 100% of snaps on third and fourth down and saw both touches in two short-yardage situations. Bigsby lost a fumble from outside the 5-yard line. On the next drive, Etienne scored from inside the 3-yard line. Coaches are going to give the ball to the one they TRUST in the red zone … and that dude is Travis Etienne. Etienne is a young, explosive running back looking at a 65% snap share in a high-powered offense with a massive TD upside, and you can draft him in Round 4. League. Winner.

Which player have you lost the most confidence in based on the preseason? Who do you feel much less comfortable drafting now than you did a month ago?

Pat Fitzmaurice: I see the Jacksonville backfield situation differently than Erickson does, and I can’t help but be less enthusiastic about Travis Etienne than I was earlier this summer. The Jaguars spent a third-round draft pick on Auburn RB Tank Bigsby. They gave Bigsby a significant number of snaps with the starters during the preseason, and Bigsby looked good (aside from that lost fumble). There’s a chance the Jaguars make Bigsby their primary goal-line back and give him some early-down work, and the Jags also seem inclined to use JaMycal Hasty on obvious passing downs. If Etienne isn’t getting goal-line work and isn’t catching many passes, it’s going to be hard for him to return a profit on a Round 3 or Round 4 investment.

Derek Brown: There hasn’t been one poor report regarding his injury recovery, but I have to be realistic about Breece Hall‘s outlook with Dalvin Cook in town. Hall won’t have to be rushed back or leaned on heavily early with Cook on the roster. This isn’t to say I’ve lost all hope on Hall, as I have him ranked as a midrange RB2, but that’s a far cry from my low-end RB1/high-end RB2 ranking of earlier this offseason. Cook might not be at the peak of his powers anymore, but he still ranked 14th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 12th in yards after contact per attempt last season (per Fantasy Points Data). Cook will eat into Hall’s ceiling.

Andrew Erickson: The low-hanging fruit is RB Najee Harris. Even though I think he’s a solid value pick when he falls into Round 4, I can’t help but feel gross taking him with a split imminent alongside Jaylen Warren. Harris has out-snapped Warren just 16-12 (57% vs. 43%) on 28 snaps from the first-team offense during the Steelers’ three exhibition contests. It doesn’t help that the Steelers will play the 49ers’ stout run defense in Week 1. But the guy I want to bring up is rookie WR Quentin Johnston. Despite his Round 1 accolades, Johnston is viewed as the WR4 on the depth chart. His preseason and training camp have been very boom-or-bust, which aligns with my scouting profile of him. I think he’s a firm tier behind the three other first-round WRs, and managers need to practice patience should they invest a draft pick in QJ.

Who’s your favorite late-round target?

Derek Brown: The player who will crush as a late-round darling in 2023 is Puka Nacua. The Rams’ rookie WR has a clear path to playing time and the skill to take advantage of it. Across his final two collegiate seasons, Nacua ranked second and sixth in yards per route run (per PFF, minimum 50 targets). Nacua has highlight-reel body control and strong mitts. Last year, he ranked 17th in contested catch rate (per PFF, minimum 10 contested catches). Nacua could also get some Robert Woods-esque handoffs this year after amassing 357 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns at BYU. Don’t leave drafts without Nacua.

Andrew Erickson: Marvin Mims. Jerry Jeudy is injured. Courtland Sutton is past his prime. Denver traded up for Mims in the draft as the first pick of the Sean Payton era. Top-24 WR in 2023. Book it.

Pat Fitzmaurice: We all have rookie fever, apparently. My choice is Luke Musgrave. He got rave reviews in training camp and played with the starters throughout the preseason. Get yourself an exciting rookie TE without paying Dalton Kincaid prices.

Let’s drill down on the fantasy prospects for some of the Buccaneers. How willing are you to draft Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rachaad White now that it will be Baker Mayfield quarterbacking the Bucs instead of Tom Brady?

Andrew Erickson: I’ve been drafting Chris Godwin and Rachaad White ad nauseam all offseason. Godwin is so clearly the only reliable receiving option from the slot, and we saw Baker Mayfield pepper him with targets in the final preseason game. Godwin earned four targets (66% target share) on six Mayfield pass attempts. The Bucs’ slot WR was targeted on all but one of his routes. I have Godwin ranked inside my top 20 when he routinely is drafted outside the top 30 WRs. As for White, the dude is one of the cheapest three-down workhorses available in fantasy football. White played 100% of the snaps with the team’s starting offense, and he was the RB1 for the team last year after he took Leonard Fournette‘s job. In his one spot start without Fournette in the lineup last season (Week 12 versus Cleveland), White went 14 for 64 rushing and 9 for 45 (on 9 targets) receiving. He totaled a 90% snap share. The list of rookie RBs to earn a 90% snap share in a game in 2022: Rachaad White. But because I have been higher on consensus on those two, naturally, I am out on Mike Evans. Mayfield can only do so much, and Evans’ age has me hands-off after Evans’ down year with Tom Brady. Evans is also dealing with an injury.

Pat Fitzmaurice: Simple math is the reason I’m out on Godwin and Evans. Tom Brady led all NFL quarterbacks in pass attempts in two of his three seasons with the Bucs, and in one of those years, he finished second. In 2019, Jameis Winston led all QBs in pass attempts. So, for the last four years, the Buccaneers’ starting quarterback has ranked either first or second in pass attempts. I’m confident that Baker Mayfield won’t be anywhere close to the league lead in pass attempts this year. The target spigot is being shut off. Evans and Godwin are fine players, but the reduction in pass volume is going to damage their fantasy value. I’m more enthusiastic about White, who had 50 catches as a rookie and has a three-down skill set. That pass-catching ability should help keep White somewhat immune to negative game scripts if the Bucs’ season turns into a dumpster fire.

Derek Brown: I’m avoiding the Bucs’ offense like the plague. Baker Mayfield winning the starting quarterback job broke the final straw of hope I had for this offense. Mayfield’s play has been putrid recently. If I had any remaining belief that this offense could surpass expectations, it was tied to the theory that Kyle Trask could be better than we think. With Trask losing out to Mayfield, that snuffed out the final candle. Godwin and Evans are low-end WR3s at best. Where they go in drafts, I can name a laundry list of players I would rather invest in. Rachaad White is a poster boy for dead-zone running backs. The dead-zone siren song is the allure of opportunity. We should be investing in talented players over seemingly juicy volume theories. White is a replacement-level talent, ranking 34th in explosive run rate and 40th in missed tackles forced per attempt among 42 qualifying running backs last year (per Fantasy Points Data).

Here’s a chance to offer some final words to fantasy managers who have drafts this week. Which one player do you most want to urge them to draft, and why? Which one player do you most want to urge them NOT to draft, and why?

Andrew Erickson: Just draft Nick Chubb. The Browns have no idea what the RB2 situation is behind him. Jerome Ford was supposed to be the guy, but he’s been hurt all preseason. I’m guessing that’s why they traded for Pierre Strong — after he failed to separate in Patriots training camp. The answer to the Browns backfield is to just draft Nick Chubb.

You can’t draft Jerry Jeudy right now … and this is coming from somebody who has been extremely high on Jeudy throughout the process. But this hamstring injury has barely moved his ADP. In two recent drafts I was in, Jeudy was drafted as the WR28 and WR32. You need way more of a discount than that for a guy with a severe hamstring injury. I will not consider Jeudy until his price matches that of at least a fantasy WR4.

Derek Brown: In the second round of every draft, select Tony Pollard and thank me at the end of the year. Pollard is the easiest second-round pick in recent memory. He has been mispriced all offseason. Pollard is Austin Ekeler 2.0. Don’t miss out on a league-winning second-round pick.

Don’t look now, but Jaylen Warren has been a big-play machine for Pittsburgh anytime he has touched the ball. Najee Harris might open as the team’s workhorse, but I doubt he will keep that role all season long. Warren’s talent is too great to deny. He’s too explosive to keep off the field, especially on passing downs, where he’s already proven to be the better receiver. Harris is a must-avoid in all drafts.

Pat Fitzmaurice: As a rookie, Drake London had a 29.4% target share and was targeted on 32.4% of his pass routes. He averaged 2.07 yards per route run — 14th-best among receivers with at least 30 catches. Yes, the Falcons will be run-heavy, and QB Desmond Ridder is a mystery box. I don’t care. London is a 6-4, 219-pound velociraptor who had a wildly impressive rookie year as a 21-year-old despite iffy QB play. Don’t overthink it.

I can’t understand why people are drafting Jerick McKinnon in the middle rounds of managed (non-best-ball) leagues. McKinnon averaged 4.2 carries and 7.5 touches a game last season. It’s nice that he’s involved in the passing game, but while McKinnon had 56 catches for 512 yards last season, there were only five games in which he had more than three receptions. And McKinnon’s TD production in 2022 was downright fluky. He scored 10 TDs on 128 touches last year. That’s not happening again. If you draft McKinnon in a managed league, good luck figuring out when to start him because touchdowns are wildly unpredictable, and McKinnon simply doesn’t get enough touches for you to ever feel entirely comfortable plugging him into your lineup.

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