NFL training camps are open, and fantasy football draft season is upon us. FantasyPros analysts Derek Brown, Andrew Erickson, Pat Fitzmaurice and Mike Maher kick off a series of preseason roundtables by discussing the most interesting training camp battles, players coming back from major injuries, players who changed teams and more.
- More Fantasy Football Advice
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
Which training-camp battle do you find most compelling? Pick a team and a position group. What are the stakes for fantasy, and what are you hoping to see?
Kansas City Wide Receivers
Mike Maher: The Kansas City receivers are a must-watch group for me this preseason because there could be a league winner in there somewhere. Will someone replicate Tyreek Hill‘s 159 targets, 111 receptions, 1,239 yards and nine touchdowns from 2021? I’ll go out on a limb and say that’s unlikely. But JuJu Smith-Schuster saw 101 targets last year in the first post-Hill season for Mahomes and the Chiefs, and he’s in New England now. Kadarius Toney is in Kansas City for a full season, but he’s already banged up and isn’t even a lock to start the season. Travis Kelce is the favorite to lead the team in targets, but he’ll turn 34 this season after setting career highs in targets (152), receptions (110) and touchdowns (12) last year. The point? There should be targets to go around in one of the best offenses in football, and Skyy Moore (ADP 143, WR57) and Rashee Rice (171 ADP, WR66) are the receivers to watch.
Pat Fitzmaurice: I have to piggyback on Maher’s selection of the Kansas City receivers. Until recently, my favorite target from this group had been Kadarius Toney, but his cleanup knee surgery last week has convinced me that Toney is another Percy Harvin — a supremely talented player whose body can’t withstand the NFL. It’s possible one of the other KC receivers could become a valuable fantasy asset. But beware: The Chiefs’ offense can be a Venus flytrap for fantasy managers. We’re drawn in by the prolific offense, but then it often turns out that QB Patrick Mahomes and TE Travis Kelce are the team’s only valuable fantasy investments. I’d like to see one of the Chiefs’ young receivers — Skyy Moore, Rashee Rice or even Justyn Ross — get a steady stream of positive buzz throughout camp and become someone I’m excited to draft a month from now.
Philadelphia Eagles Backfield
Andrew Erickson: Very much looking forward to seeing how the Eagles’ backfield shakes out because it’s hard to imagine Philly’s starting RB not delivering fantasy goodness and playing in one of the best offensive situations in the NFL. It further complicates things that the Eagles have collected a dynamic cast of RBs in D’Andre Swift, Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Gainwell. It’s a great spot to be in for any of the three real-life-talented RBs. I’m just hoping one can emerge above the rest, as opposed to a dreaded committee. My money’s on a healthy Penny winning the job.
Chicago Bears Backfield
Derek Brown: The Chicago Bears’ backfield is a must-see this preseason. This group of skilled players shows the Chicago front office’s laser-sharp analytical focus. The Bears’ love for yards after contact per attempt is illustrated loudly by their RB collection. Last year, Khalil Herbert ranked second in yards after contact per attempt, and D’Onta Foreman was 11th (per FantasyPoints Data; minimum 100 attempts). Roschon Johnson might have seen limited volume in college wedged behind Bijan Robinson, but Johnson also checks this box emphatically, ranking 11th, 21st and 14th in yards after contact per attempt over his last three collegiate seasons (per PFF). This is a long-winded way to state that this backfield is loaded with talent, and whoever emerges (if anyone) as the clear lead back will absorb a ton of rushing volume. That’s why we should target this ambiguous backfield in hopes of mining a future RB2 in fantasy. Chicago was second in rushing attempts last season and seventh in rushing touchdowns. The additions of Foreman, Johnson and rookie offensive tackle Darnell Wright scream that this team will become more gap-heavy in their run game design. With Foreman working on a one-year deal and Herbert out of town after 2024, I’d love for Johnson to establish himself early this season as the present and future workhorse.
There are a number of players coming back from major injuries. Which of these players are you most optimistic about? Which of these players are you most pessimistic about?
Breece Hall | Javonte Williams
Pat Fitzmaurice: The Jets’ possible signing of Dalvin Cook will scare people away from Breece Hall. I tend to think the Jets still view Hall as their lead back after his ACL tear last season, but the team is clearly all in for 2023, and I think the Jets just want to make sure they’re adequately covered at a position with high injury rates. It’s fair to be concerned about what Cook would mean to Hall’s workload, but I don’t think it reflects concern about Hall’s recovery. Hall should be fine for the start of the season and at least 90%-95% of his awesome self early in the season.
I’m far more concerned about a running back who wasn’t placed on PUP to start training camp. I want no part of Javonte Williams coming off a multi-ligament knee tear. Williams tore his ACL and LCL — the same devastating injury J.K. Dobbins has been trying to overcome. I’m fading all injury optimism on Williams.
Breece Hall | Rashod Bateman
Andrew Erickson: Even if Breece Hall starts the season slowly, coming off his ACL injury, I expect him to be a league-winner when it matters most during the second half and fantasy football championships. I’ll continue to believe this even if the Jets sign Dalvin Cook.
Rashod Bateman has dealt with injuries through two full seasons, and his past numbers are dramatically boosted by a few big plays. If the Ravens were confident Bateman could be their long-term No. 1, they wouldn’t have drafted Zay Flowers.
Darren Waller | Javonte Williams
Derek Brown: For weeks, I’ve been screaming Darren Waller‘s name into the offseason ether. Waller has been unguardable and a target hog so far in camp. While Waller might not be attempting to bounce back from an ACL or other devastating injury, his problematic hamstrings and joints have hindered his availability over the last two seasons. If Waller can maintain his health, he can contend for the overall TE1 crown in 2023.
While all the early camp reports regarding Javonte Williams have been positive, consider me a cautious pessimist. Williams’ knee injury was horrendous, and we have seen this feature film too many times to know the probable outcome. Whether we’re worried about Williams eventually missing time, starting slowly out the gate, or having a lingering dip in effectiveness for 2023, the positive camp reports can only do so much to assuage fear and rekindle hope.
Lamar Jackson | Brock Purdy
Mike Maher: I’m optimistic about a Lamar Jackson bounceback for a number of reasons. For starters, the change at offensive coordinator should be a good thing for the offense as a whole and for Jackson’s passing numbers. And secondly, call me a cynic, but I question just how hurt Jackson was at the end of last year. Is that fair? Maybe not. But that’s where I am.
As for Brock Purdy, I’m pessimistic because, to be completely honest, I just don’t think he’s as good as a lot of people seem to think. Did he play well in a QB-friendly offense against a bunch of bad defenses down the stretch last year? Sure. Is he a good story and a fun player to watch? Yes. But (see the cynic note above), I’m just not convinced he’s the next Tom Brady because he hit a few wide-open receivers and got the ball to playmakers in space in an offense that set him up for success. The early reports from training camp are positive (if you’re reading this, Kyle Shanahan would love for you to trade for Trey Lance), but his brutal injury in last year’s NFC Championship game only gives me more questions about Purdy.
Is there a team whose offense you’re expecting to take a major step forward and become particularly fantasy-friendly this year? Is there a team whose players you’re avoiding in anticipation of a lifeless offense?
Pittsburgh Steelers | New England Patriots
Derek Brown: The Steelers have all the necessary ingredients for fantasy goodness this season. An emerging second-year quarterback (Kenny Pickett)? Check. A highlight-reel deep threat (George Pickens)? Yep. A route-running savant (Diontae Johnson)? Oh, yeah. A talented target-earning tight end (Pat Freiermuth)? You better believe it. This offense will be improved in 2023. The question is how much. I’m willing to invest heavily to find out.
The Patriots are a rolling dumpster fire. Outside of my belief in Rhamondre Stevenson‘s ability and my hopes of him emerging as one of the best all-around talents in the NFL in 2023, you can count me out on this offense. Juju Smith-Schuster is mid at this point of his career. Belief in DeVante Parker is a worrisome drug that people should have kicked long ago. Tyquan Thornton‘s hype is head-scratching, to say the least. Outside of Stevenson, I’m avoiding New England players like the plague.
Chicago Bears | Arizona Cardinals
Mike Maher: Let me preface this by saying I’m not the biggest Justin Fields fan. That said, he showed how valuable he can be in fantasy with how he finished last season. Whether something clicked with him or whether the Bears just decided to cut him loose and encourage him to run, the end result was a top-5 QB for fantasy once he started running all over the place. The Bears added Chase Claypool during the season and D.J. Moore this offseason in an attempt to give Fields more weapons, and it would be a disappointment if the Bears didn’t take a major step forward this season.
As for the Arizona Cardinals, I could not be more out. I don’t know if we see Kyler Murray this season. And if we do, he probably won’t be the same mobile Murray we’re used to. DeAndre Hopkins is gone. Marquise Brown is … fine? Unpopular opinion: Cardinals fans are going to miss Kliff Kingsbury when they see the offense Jonathan Gannon puts on the field this year.
Atlanta Falcons | Indianapolis Colts
Andrew Erickson: Desmond Ridder isn’t perfect, but Ridder creating a fantasy-friendly environment with top offensive weapons at his disposal is hardly asking for much. I’ll bet Atlanta takes a step forward in his second year with head coach Arthur Smith.
Rookie QBs are bad bets for offenses. Mobile QBs are bad bets for the offense. The Colts have a dynamic dual-threat rookie QB who I want to have in fantasy football, but it’s going to have to come at the expense of the Colts’ top fantasy contributors, as Anthony Richardson will go through growing pains.
Cleveland Browns | Las Vegas Raiders
Pat Fitzmaurice: I’m tempted to copycat Erickson by endorsing the Falcons, but I’m not close to being sold on Desmond Ridder as a functional NFL quarterback. Let’s go with the Browns. Deshaun Watson is going to be better this season, and the combination of an improved Watson and a top offensive line will set up Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, David Njoku and Elijah Moore for strong seasons.
I’m staying away from the Raiders. That team seemed on the verge of a mutiny last season, and I don’t trust head coach Josh McDaniels to get things back on track. Josh Jacobs is holding out, and Davante Adams has expressed displeasure with the direction of the offense. I’m leaving Las Vegas.
Which of the players who changed teams has you most excited?
Darren Waller
Andrew Erickson: Darren Waller + Brian Daboll and 10,000 slot receivers. I like the TE’s chances of being the team’s alpha in 2023.
Rashaad Penny
Pat Fitzmaurice: It’s not a giddy type of excitement, but I loved seeing Rashaad Penny land with the Eagles. Yes, yes. Injuries, injuries. Blah, blah, blah. Penny’s medical history is concerning, but the dude is a baller. Yards per carry is a noisy and flawed stat, but it’s telling that Penny has averaged 5.7 YPC for his career and 6.2 YPC over the last two years. Now he gets to run behind an Eagles offensive line that eats broken glass for a snack. I’m enthusiastic.
Brandin Cooks
Mike Maher: I don’t trust Mike McCarthy, and I don’t feel great about Dak Prescott with former OC Kellen Moore out of the picture. But I’m somehow in on Brandin Cooks. Cooks has topped 1,000 yards receiving in every season in which he’s played 15 games or more since 2014, and he’s done so despite bouncing around the league the last several years. He’ll be in yet another new home in Dallas this season and turn 30 years old in September. But I think Cooks will be a focal point of this Dallas offense as long as he can stay healthy, despite McCarthy implying that he, um, doesn’t want to score points when asked about the differences between his style and Moore’s at the NFL Combine. Cooks is being drafted just inside the top 100 overall and just outside the top 40 WRs, but he’s been a consistent WR2 when healthy and should, despite McCarthy, be in one of the better offenses he’s played in since his time with the Rams.
David Montgomery
Derek Brown: David Montgomery will be the goal-line hammer on an offense that was second in red-zone scoring attempts per game last season. We all saw what that did for Jamaal Williams in 2022. I’m not saying Montgomery will spike touchdowns with that type of regularity, but he can definitely get to double digits, even if we’re baking in regression for this passing attack. Montgomery will also factor into the passing game, which Williams never did. The ceiling and floor are both quite high for Montgomery in 2023.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
