We’re coming up on the first full week of the NFL preseason, and soon we’ll be in the heart of fantasy draft season. FantasyPros analysts Derek Brown, Andrew Erickson, Pat Fitzmaurice and Mike Maher continue a series of preseason roundtables by discussing notable training camp news, player stances they’re second-guessing, and the Seahawks’ wide receivers. And check out last week’s fantasy football roundtable for even more expert advice!
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Fantasy Football Draft Advice
Is there a piece of training-camp news that has grabbed your attention? Something that either changed the way you felt about a player or reinforced your stance on a player?
Andrew Erickson: I could have gone the deep sleeper route, but I want to talk about a player I think is still undervalued as a Round 2 pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown. With all the hype around the Lions, I feel like the Sun God is still flying under the radar despite reports that St. Brown is dialed in as the best player in training camp. I am all in on the Sun God and would happily draft in him Round 1 of fantasy drafts.
Derek Brown: I already had Anthony Richardson cemented as a QB1 this season after his arrival in Indy. However, with every positive camp report that surfaces, there’s no way he will leave my top 10 fantasy quarterbacks in rankings this offseason. Richardson’s rushing prowess and upside have been well documented, but his passing skill has received steady positive reviews in camp. His passing upside could put him in the fantasy production realm of Jalen Hurts, who was QB6 in fantasy points per game during his first full season as the Eagles’ starter.
Eagles Backfield
Mike Maher: Last week, Erickson mentioned the Eagles backfield as his must-watch training camp battle. Through the first couple of weeks of training camp, we still don’t really have any idea how things are going to play out. Thus far, we’ve received small crumbs of news combined with some coachspeak. At the start of training camp, HC Nick Sirianni said all of the running backs would see time with the first-team offense, even Trey Sermon. D’Andre Swift is being fed passes in practice. Rashaad Penny has looked explosive while also … returning kicks? The team continues to talk up Kenneth Gainwell. Boston Scott refuses to go away. By now, I was hoping we’d have more clarity on this position, even if it was just something like “Penny starting to earn the majority of first-team reps in practice.” But it sounds like Sirianni was telling the truth, and this backfield may very well be a three-way committee.
Pat Fitzmaurice: Every so often, we’ll see an under-the-radar rookie emerge from anonymity in training camp and lay claim to a fantasy-relevant role. We might be getting that in Patriots camp this summer with sixth-round rookie Demario Douglas, who’s reportedly looking terrific in practices and generating a steady stream of buzz from team-beat writers. The 5-8, 179-pound Douglas, who had 79 catches and 993 yards for Liberty last season, is running with New England’s first-team offense. He’s reportedly passed Tyquan Thornton on the depth chart and seems to be well ahead of fellow rookie sixth-rounder Kayshon Boutte. If Douglas shines in preseason games, I’ll be targeting him in the end rounds of fantasy drafts.
Name a player you’re bullish on for 2023 but also harbor some doubts about. In other words, which of the guys you like leaves you most concerned that you’re making the wrong call?
Derek Brown: The case for drafting Drake London based on his talent is easy to make. With a known competent entity at quarterback, London would be drafted in the same range as Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, but because Falcons QBs Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke stink, he’s not. The more camp proceeds and I’m forced to watch London adjust to poorly thrown balls or watch the ball sail over his head, my fear increases. I worry more by the day that London will remain held back by pitiful quarterback play in 2023, because Atlanta’s passing volume won’t be enough for London to overcome inefficient quarterback play with raw target volume.
Mike Maher: I’m very high on Miami RB De’Von Achane and think he could be the perfect weapon out of the backfield for that offense. But I worry about his situation. The Dolphins already have Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert on the roster, and they have been linked to free agent RB Dalvin Cook for a couple of months now (though he seems likely to sign with the Jets at this point). Achane has reportedly made a good first impression with the coaching staff but also has yet to really separate himself from the aforementioned veterans, and he recently missed practice with an undisclosed injury. If he earns opportunities, Achane has the potential to be a league-winner at his current price (ECR 123 overall, RB43). But if Wilson and Mostert stay healthy and productive and Achane fails to separate himself, he could be relegated to a limited workload this season.
Pat Fitzmaurice: Cam Akers. He’s one of the few RBs in the league with a chance to average 20 touches a game. Akers led the NFL in rushing over the final six weeks of the 2022 season and ranked RB4 in half-point PPR scoring over that stretch. He had more than 100 rushing yards in each of his last three games. It’s possible that despite his speedy comeback from an Achilles tear sustained in July 2021, Akers wasn’t 100% healthy until his strong stretch run last year. But it’s admittedly hard to invest with confidence after Akers was so disappointing early last season and was briefly estranged from the team over what Rams head coach Sean McVay called “an internal issue.” I have Akers RB14 in my half-point PPR rankings; the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings have him at RB20. I’m admittedly nervous about my Akers bullishness.
Andrew Erickson: Love Garrett Wilson, and the upgrade at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers makes it seem like Wilson should be slated for the moon. But Rodgers wasn’t great last season, and I am concerned the new Jets QB could be a fantasy bust in 2023. If he busts, doesn’t that mean he brings Wilson down with him? Wilson isn’t cheap as a high-end Round 2 WR, and there are probably more underlying red flags than I’d care to admit. Again, this is a brand-new QB-WR pairing. Rodgers thought about retiring in the offseason. Former Broncos head coach Nathaniel Hackett is the new Jets OC. The Wilson-Rodgers connection is bound to go through so growing pains, and a low-ankle sprain for Wilson doesn’t help.
Name a player you’re down on for 2023, but you’re second-guessing yourself about him? Who could make you look foolish by having a good year?
Mike Maher: I’ve been down on Bills RB James Cook since last season and even traded him to DBro in our company dynasty league, but the training camp buzz surrounding Cook is getting hard to ignore. Nyheim Hines‘ injury gives Cook a clear path to the third-down role, and everything out of camp suggests Cook is also seeing the lion’s share of the first-team reps over veteran RB Damien Harris. There’s still concern about short-yardage and red-zone duties with Harris and whatever is left of Latavius Murray still lurking, but all of the early news about Cook has him trending upward.
Andrew Erickson: J.K. Dobbins, man. The guy looked absolutely teed up to smash as the Ravens’ RB1, but this ongoing contract dispute — where he has absolutely no leverage — and ongoing injury nonsense has me pumping the brakes. The Ravens went down to the wire with Lamar Jackson‘s contract extension. Dobbins hasn’t done a fraction of what Lamar has done for the franchise, and that makes me concerned about Dobbins’ role. He doesn’t catch passes and has played eight games over the last two seasons. It doesn’t seem far-fetched that the Ravens could tell Dobbins to pound sand and trudge along with Gus Edwards (whom they did pay already) as their starting RB.
Pat Fitzmaurice: Michael Thomas. I have zero exposure to him because I doubt he can stay healthy after years of seemingly chronic injury problems. But what if he stays healthy? This is a dude who was on a Hall of Fame trajectory before sustaining the first in a series of ankle and toe injuries in 2020. Up until that point, he had begun his NFL career with four straight years of 1,100 receiving yards or more, culminating in a 149-catch, 1725-yard performance in 2019. The 30-year-old Thomas is older now but not dusty-old. If he’s back to full health — a huge “if,” obviously — he could reassert himself as an impactful fantasy receiver and also cut deeply into the target total of second-year WR Chris Olave, a player in whom I’m heavily invested.
Derek Brown: Deebo Samuel is a player I’ve been hard-fading all offseason. Samuel has the raw talent to make me look foolish, just as he did in 2021, if everything breaks his way. I have had difficulty convincing myself to draft Samuel at his WR2 price tag in a vacuum, much less when I factor in other players on the board at that point in the draft. The 49ers’ offense will remain explosive in 2023, and Samuel could leave me with egg on my face if he reprises his 2021 level of production.
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Let’s drill down on a particular position group that’s getting a lot of attention from fantasy managers. How are you approaching the Seahawks’ wide receivers?
Andrew Erickson: I am drafting all of the Seattle WRs. But I particularly love D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Metcalf has a tremendous ceiling after he finished second overall in red zone targets behind Justin Jefferson in 2022. Metcalf’s team target share ranks sixth over the last two seasons, and he has not missed a single game during his four-year NFL career. JSN fits the exact archetype of a slot WR whom a hyper-accurate QB like Geno Smith will love targeting over the middle of the field. I think Tyler Lockett is a decent value where he is drafted, but I don’t think he has the same upside as the other two guys. Lockett will be 31 years old and is coming off a year in which his production was heavily boosted by TDs. In fact, no WR scored more TDs over expectation than Lockett did in 2022 (9 TDs, 5.8 expected TDs). Lockett’s expected fantasy points per game output (10.2) was WR32. His 22% target rate ranked 36th, and his team target share ranked 22nd.
Mike Maher: I’m still kind of in awe of what Geno Smith was able to do in 2022. I’m also not completely buying that Smith is an elite QB after a decade of mediocrity that says otherwise. That said, I don’t think he’s going to completely crater to the point that it severely impacts the fantasy relevance of these three wide receivers. As for those receivers, I’m targeting them in reverse order of their ECR and ADP: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR37), Tyler Lockett (WR31), D.K. Metcalf (WR15). That mostly means I’m getting one of JSN or Lockett in most drafts and haven’t been walking away with any Metcalf shares. Metcalf is a fun player, but he also turned 141 targets into just 1,048 yards and six touchdowns. Lockett received 117 targets and managed to produce 1,033 yards and nine touchdowns. Lockett finished as WR13 in Half PPR last season, while Metcalf finished as WR17. And with JSN now added to the mix, why exactly are we drafting Metcalf as a top-15 WR in 2023?
Pat Fitzmaurice: Approach with caution. I have some exposure to all three Seattle receivers, but I’m nervous that Geno Smith could torpedo the collective fantasy value of this group. (It sounds like Maher is nervous about this as well, but I’ll bet my palms are sweatier than his.) It seems as if a lot of people missed Geno’s late-season swoon. In his first 12 regular-season games, he had a 72.7% completion rate, a 108.7 passer rating, 22 TDs and 6 INTs while averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt. The rest of the way, he had a 63.3% completion rate, 83.9 passer rating, 8 TDs and 5 INTs while averaging 6.2 yards per attempt. It’s possible the abundance of pass-catching talent props up Geno and his numbers. Still, I can’t help but worry about a quarterback who had his first good season in 2022 after entering the league in 2013.
Derek Brown: I have no issues drafting Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf in the areas of the draft where they reside, but the player I keep hammering and increasing my offseason exposure to is Jaxon Smith-Njigba. JSN has already emphatically checked the boxes I look for in a rookie wide receiver. First-round pedigree? Done. Elite production profile? Yep. Smith-Njigba is a WR3/4 in many drafts, which is a steal. That’s his floor this season if Metcalf and Lockett box him out for targets. It’s not pricing in his upside as a talented enough player to earn targets at a higher rate than his two veteran counterparts or if injury strikes Metcalf or Lockett.
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