One of the most fun debates in fantasy football is when you should draft your first running back. There are strategies of waiting a few rounds so you can stockpile your roster at other positions, such as wide receiver and tight end. While you can do that in the later parts of rounds one and two, I’d have to imagine that it would be tough to pass on some of the top running back options in the early portion of round one. Put injuries aside because they can happen to any position at any time. There’s a handful of backs that are just too good to pass up. Here are three running backs that I make a case for as the top running back in fantasy football this season.
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Making the Case for RB1
Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF)
Could much of the success of Christian McCaffrey be determined by whoever plays quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers? One would think, but CMC had plenty of success regardless of who was taking snaps from under center. After being traded mid-season by the Carolina Panthers, CMC averaged 4.9 yards per carry and forced 30 missed tackles on his 199 carries for the 49ers. He also earned an NFL best of a 91.9 receiving grade per Pro Football Focus (PFF).
It’s easy to see why CMC had so much success in San Francisco. Not only was he running behind the best offensive line of his career, there were other weapons in the offense that helped open things up for him.
When you put on the tape, you’ll see CMC immediately align anywhere and everywhere on the field. He can play out wide, in the slot, or we’ll see him play the typical alignment for a running back out of the backfield. Keep in mind that Kyle Shannahan isn’t afraid to motion McCaffrey around to keep defenses guessing. When doing this, they’ll throw designed screens toward him, or we’ll watch him run effective wheel and angle routes. It led him to big gains and touchdowns in 2023.
In addition to catching passes, I watched CMC be effective out of split-zone looks out of 12 personnel (1 running back and 2 tight ends). If they’re not running the ball out of 12 personnel, look for the 49ers to bring in their talented fullback Kyle Juszcyk, and he’ll lead the way for CMC out of 21 personnel (2 running backs and 1 tight end). Not only is CMC a talented runner, but the 49ers also set him up for success with their pre-snap orbit motions of Deebo Samuel. This normally leads to a safety, linebacker, or a nickelback shifting out of the box and toward the flats to honor Samuel. This gives CMC one less defender to worry about when he has the ball in his hands.
While CMC will need to become more effective between the tackles in the red zone, he’s still one of the most talented players in the NFL. With that, I have no problem with anyone saying he’s the best running back in the NFL. Coming off back-to-back seasons of injuries in 2020 and 2021, CMC looked like his old self again last season. Between playing for the Panthers and 49ers in 2022, he ran for over 1100 yards on 244 carries and had eight touchdowns. Meanwhile, he added 85 receptions for 741 yards and five touchdowns.
We do see a lot of mock drafts where Minnesota Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson is slated to be the first overall pick. Obviously, each draft will be different, but Christian McCaffrey should be in the conversation as not only the top running back in fantasy football but the first overall pick.
Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC)
In consecutive seasons, Austin Ekeler had almost identical production for the Chargers. It’s a positive sign for the Ekeler truthers out there. However, you could be somewhat hesitant about selecting Ekeler as the top running back in fantasy football this season. With former offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi gone, the Chargers bring in former Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.
Now his track record with talented running backs such as Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliot bodes well for Ekeler, but sometimes a change doesn’t always work out for players. Meanwhile, Ekeler spent part of this off-season in a contract dispute with the Chargers and was even seeking a trade. It could lead to him playing exceptionally well for a new contract with more money or for a fresh start somewhere else in the NFL.
When you look at the production for Ekeler, it’s all positive, but much of his rushing success is touchdown dependent. Over the last two seasons, he’s compiled 25 rushing touchdowns. That’s a promising sign, but as I mentioned, there’s a new offensive coordinator in Los Angeles. There’s some uncertainty on if Ekeler gets the same amount of touches in the red zone as he did last year.
Last season, Ekeler had the third most carries inside the 20 for running backs with 47 carries. He only trailed Kenneth Walker and Jamaal Williams. In addition to the touches, he had the most rushing yardage inside-the-20 with 165 yards. Fortunately, Chargers offensive coordinator Kellen Moore used Ezekiel Elliot quite a bit in the red zone. In fact, all 12 of Elliots rushing touchdowns came from the red zone last season. It will be interesting to see how that plays out for Ekeler.
When watching the film from last season with Ekeler and the Chargers, one key thing I noticed was how Ekeler was like an energizer bunny. He just kept going and going and going. He didn’t get every touch, but they continued to feed him the ball, and one way or another, something broke. Whether it was a long carry or a designed screen where he was able to run after the catch, Ekeler found ways to generate a big gain. There’s no doubt that he is the safety valve of the Chargers’ offense for quarterback Justin Herbert. You could see that when Herbert was in doubt, he could easily check it down to Ekeler.
Much of that could happen again in 2023 for Ekeler and the Chargers. I’d have to imagine that there will be some drop-off from the 107 receptions that Ekeler compiled in 2022. How much of a drop? It’s hard to tell, but with almost a 65-catch average per season in his career, it bodes well for Ekeler to not only be successful when running the ball but also when catching it.
While I have some hesitation with personally labeling Ekeler as my top running back, I could understand if someone else did. The more you watch of him from 2022, the more you will like him. He’s a tough runner that makes impressive cuts when bursting through the line. Add in his change-of-direction ability and his pass-catching value, and there’s reason to believe he can finish as a top-10 player in fantasy football. Again, there’s uncertainty with how a new offensive coordinator is going to use him, but his track record speaks for itself. Ekeler could easily be in the conversation as one of the top running backs in fantasy football.
Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)
During the 2023 NFL Draft, I may have had one of the first mock drafts that had Robinson falling to the Atlanta Falcons. It was a fit that just made too much sense, and honestly, it might be such a great fit that Robinson ends up running his way to NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
When you look at what the Falcons did from a season ago, they mixed it up between Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson. Allgeier led the way with 210 carries for 1035 yards and three touchdowns. Patterson added almost 700 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. While the Falcons thrived with running the ball, that’s how they want to be identified offensively. Last season, they ran 57 percent of the time on early downs, and one would have to think that Bijan Robinson is going to be fed early and often in this offense.
For much of this off-season, I’ve gone on record to say that Robinson can easily be a 300-touch player for the Falcons. I still stand by that. Robinson has terrific cutting ability and has a flexible lower half that allows him to change direction at ease. In his last season for the Longhorns, he was the featured back and by far the best player on the roster. He had 258 carries for 1580 yards and 18 touchdowns. The next closest was Roschon Johnson, with 93 carries.
Obviously, it’s hard to envision what head coach Arthur Smith plans to do with Bijan. Bijan was listed as the third running back on the initial depth chart from the Falcons’ press release. Sure, there are plenty of mouths to feed in their backfield, but I’d have to imagine that we’ll see Robinson at the top of the depth chart by the time the season kicks off. In fact, head coach Arthur Smith has come out and stated that he’s “pretty damn pleased” with their first round pick from the 2023 NFL Draft.
From what I’ve gathered through notes of the Falcons training camp, Bijan Robinson has shown off his versatility with where he’s lined up offensively and continues to make plays. We’ll see how the pre-season plays out for Robinson and the rest of the Falcons backfield, but it’s hard to imagine their offense without him as the starting running back. Whether I’m in a dynasty league or just a standard fantasy league, I’d be looking to make Robinson one of my top picks for fantasy football.
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