If I could use one word to describe the state of the running back position entering the 2023 season, it would be doubt.
There is more trepidation about the position — particularly at the top — than perhaps we’ve ever seen before. It certainly doesn’t help that NFL teams apparently don’t value the position much, as studs like Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, and Josh Jacobs have all failed to earn long-term contract extensions.
Currently, only five running backs are going inside the first round of 12-team, standard league drafts, per FantasyPros Average Draft Position. Our Expert Consensus Rankings have the same sentiment, with just five tailbacks ranked inside the top 12. Heck, Justin Jefferson is the top-ranked player as of right now in standard formats.
Despite all of this uncertainty, running back remains the most scarce position in fantasy football. And while the Zero RB strategy sounds good in theory, I’ve always felt it’s harder to execute in reality.
The question is whether the market is overreacting or providing a glimpse at the future of fantasy football.
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Matt Barbato’s Running Back Strategy for 2023 Fantasy Football
The uncertainty and negativity at running back offer a buying opportunity, especially early on. While I love Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and the other elite wide receivers, I still prefer to go running back off the bat, especially if I’m picking early in Round 1.
Obviously, injury risk is much higher for running backs than for wide receivers. But running back is still the more scarce position with much wider gaps between tiers. Jefferson is a stud, but I’m comfortable getting 80% of Jefferson with a receiver like CeeDee Lamb, who offers close to as much weekly upside anyways.
I’m most likely taking Christian McCaffrey, Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler, and Saquon Barkley ahead of Jefferson if I’m picking in the top 5. As of right now, I’m also buying Taylor and Jacobs as first-round picks unless their situations worsen.
How to Handle the 2023 “RB Dead Zone”
The Running Back Dead Zone is generally referred to as rounds 3-6, which, historically speaking, has been an area in drafts where running backs have performed poorly compared to wide receivers drafted in a similar range. This year’s dead zone feels a bit more hopeful than in previous seasons. Here are some players I’m targeting in this range.
- Cam Akers (RB – LAR) (ADP 36) finished 2022 on a high note after emerging from Sean McVay’s doghouse. He’s two years removed from an Achilles injury, has little competition on the depth chart, and should benefit from a healthy Matthew Stafford and offensive line.
- David Montgomery (RB – DET) (ADP 39)left Chicago to potentially assume the early-down work and potential red zone role in what should be a prolific Lions offense. Montgomery isn’t a dazzling talent, but he’s a solid, workmanlike back who walks into a role that made Jamaal Williams a fantasy darling.
- Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI) (ADP 53) could inherit the starting gig left behind by Montgomery in Chicago. Herbert has balled out when given a chance to start. He averaged 117 rushing yards in two starts in relief of Montgomery last season. The talent is obvious; it’s up to Chicago’s coaching staff to see it.
- Honorable mentions: Isiah Pacheco could see a greater work share in his second season, and his situation gives him a decent weekly upside. James Conner seems forgotten about because of the negative sentiment surrounding Arizona, but he’s a lock for touches if he’s healthy. Speaking of touches, Miles Sanders should be a lock for a significant work share even though he leaves Philadelphia for Carolina. And speaking of Philadelphia, both D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny intrigue me as high-upside RB3s. My preference is Swift, who feels like the ultimate post-hype sleeper this season.
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