Fantasy Football Quarterback Strategy, Tiers, Targets & Fades (2023)

2022 was a messy year at quarterback in fantasy football, and I only need one stat to make that point.

Geno Smith was the QB5 in standard scoring formats. If that doesn’t define just how strange of a year it was, I’m not sure what will.

It doesn’t help that the position was a crapshoot if you didn’t start the year with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts or Joe Burrow. Trustable guys like Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott struggled with inconsistency and injury. And veterans you could count on later in drafts, such as Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford, all had terrible years by their standards.

As someone who historically plays the waiting game at QB, I fully admit I was burnt badly in 2022. And while it’s critical not to overhaul our strategies entirely due to a single season, the disaster that was 2022 has me questioning my willingness to wait and/or stream the position.

We’ve already got enough positions to worry about in fantasy football, namely running back and receiver. Do we need to add a quarterback to the list? Here’s my strategy for tackling the position in 2023.

Fantasy Football Quarterback Strategy, Tiers, Targets & Fades (2023)

Matt Barbato’s 2023 Quarterback Strategy for Fantasy Football

For years, my mantra at quarterback has been to wait, and wait, and wait. The reason is you could get 80% of the QB1 in any given year at a much smaller cost, with nearly as much weekly upside.

That strategy blew up in my face last year. In a lot of leagues, I wound up with Tom Brady in his last — and perhaps worst — season or Trey Lance, who was out for the year by October.

But as I mentioned above, I’m not going to deviate from my quarterback strategy a ton. However, I am modifying my approach in drafts this year.

No, I am not targeting Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Jalen Hurts at their current average draft positions (ADPs). While all three are great, I can’t justify the opportunity cost associated with taking them over a running back or wide receiver in the second round. But I’m also not as willing to play the waiting game, as the options awaiting me in the back-end QB1 range aren’t all that enticing.

So instead, I’m targeting what I’m calling the “QB Middle Class.” If I can come away with either Justin Herbert, Justin Fields or Trevor Lawrence, who are ranked sixth, seventh and eighth, respectively, I’m feeling awfully good.

All three of these guys have the talent to finish as the QB1. And while I wish I could get them a couple of rounds later, I’m more willing to stomach using a Round 5-6 pick on a quarterback than I’ve been in previous years. Why’s that, you ask? Because…

The Low-End QB1s are Hard to Trust

If you struck gold with Geno Smith or Daniel Jones a season ago as a dart throw, I tip my cap. But I feel pretty queasy about entrusting any of the quarterbacks ranked below Lawrence to deliver a strong fantasy season.

Deshaun Watson is the QB9 and feels like a total unknown. He could make us all look silly by returning to his 2020 form, or he could continue to fizzle out and wreck your hopes and dreams (and Cleveland’s). If you’re willing to stomach the risk for a potentially massive reward, then Watson may be appealing.

I’ve never been a huge Dak Prescott fan, and the market seems to finally agree. Prescott isn’t bad, but he hasn’t been prolific as a fantasy starter. Dallas’ situation around him is quite good. But Dak only averaged 17.8 fantasy points per game last season despite a similarly great situation. He’s a high-floor option who I’m not rushing to draft but don’t mind at his current ADP as a fallback.

Tua Tagovailoa was awesome last year. But how can we conceivably hitch our fantasy wagons to a player with a history of concussions? If you’re drafting Tua, you’d be wise to double up on the position, which just isn’t ideal.

I’m also not interested in last year’s biggest surprises, Jones and Smith, who benefitted from such a down year at the position at large.

If you’re waiting at QB, my recommendation is to take either Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins.

I don’t believe Aaron Rodgers is suddenly washed up. We may not see MVP-level Rodgers in New York this year. But it’s crazy to write him off after a year in Green Bay, during which he was throwing to rookie receivers and dealt with a thumb injury on his throwing hand. The situation in New York should be favorable enough to yield a strong return on a minimal investment, as Rodgers is ranked as the QB15. If you choose to wait, Rodgers is my favorite target.

Like Prescott, Cousins isn’t always prolific. And the risk of a bust week is always on the table. But I really like the system he’s in under Kevin O’Connell, plus he’s got elite weapons in Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison to work with.

Should I Take a Shot on Anthony Richardson?

The Colts announced Richardson will be their starting quarterback to begin the 2023 season. And he’s the definition of a boom-or-bust fantasy option.

Richardson displayed marvelous athletic ability at Florida. Many deem him the next in line in the lineage of dual-threat quarterbacks in the league. But while Jackson, Hurts, and Fields showed glimpses in Year 1, none of them really put it all together as rookies. And Richardson is more unseasoned as a prospect than all three of the aforementioned playmakers.

While the upside is tantalizing, my gut tells me to hold off on Richardson in 2023, as there could be plenty of growing pains to come. However, I don’t blame anyone for stashing him in drafts if the price is right.

And for what it’s worth, I’m also staying away from fellow rookies Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud in redraft leagues.

More Fantasy Football Strategy

Fantasy Draft Advice NFL Geno Smith Patrick Mahomes Josh Allen Jalen Hurts Joe Burrow Lamar Jackson Kyler Murray Justin Herbert Dak Prescott Aaron Rodgers Russell Wilson Matthew Stafford Trey Lance Justin Fields Trevor Lawrence Daniel Jones Deshaun Watson Tua Tagovailoa Kirk Cousins Justin Jefferson T.J. Hockenson Jordan Addison Anthony Richardson Bryce Young C.J. Stroud