As we are less than a month away from the first game of the season, and with preseason in full swing, I took to the FantasyPros Discord to host a Mock Draft with some of our readers. This mock draft was a Superflex PPR roster setup and scoring and involved seven readers with four teams being auto-drawn. This allows us to get the best sample of rankings vs. the real world to make a genuine comparison.
This mock draft was done using the FREE FantasyPros Draft Simulator and picking the draft spots at random. I wanted an early spot in this mock draft and was lucky enough to get one.
So, without further ado, here are the results of the mock draft.
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Fantasy Football Superflex PPR Redraft Mock Draft: Analysis & Key Takeaways (2023)
What did you learn from this draft?
I learned it is very hard to draft with both humans and bots. Because, with a combination of the two, it is hard to actually predict which way things will go. With the first pick going Justin Jefferson, it really threw what I was expecting to see. However, I was delighted to get Josh Allen.
It was a real surprise to see just nine quarterbacks be drafted in the first 42 picks. This really goes against the grain of normal Superflex drafts that I have been in all summer, where you will see close to double that amount being drafted. This really threw out my draft plan, meaning I had to pivot on the fly.
Also, whilst the QB2s for teams seemed to take a while to come off the board, it seems the panic of the pool of quarterbacks being depleted forced a run on QB3s coming off much earlier than expected. In round 8, I took Bryce Young as the 25th quarterback to be taken off the board, with QB24 Brock Purdy being taken 10 picks earlier. This also goes against what I have been seeing in Superflex drafts all summer.
According to ADP, QB25 is going off at around pick 132, which is the end of round 11. In live drafts, the earliest I have seen QB25 come off is the end of the 9th round at pick 107. Seeing me have to take Young at pick 94 was a surprise and another way of showing how I had to pivot from my plan in this mock draft.
Lastly, I was surprised at how the mock draft really faded tight ends, with just seven taken in the first 10 rounds. It meant teams got significant value at the position in rounds 11 and 12. If you were brave to wait on the position, you did very well. And, whilst I was happy with Kittle in round 7, had I known there would have been a four-round wait for the next tight end to come off the board, I would have waited and scooped up the value. This is a big reason why I only managed to score 85 out of 100 on the mock draft analyzer.
What area(s) of your draft are you happy with?
I am extremely happy with my quarterbacks. To have Josh Allen, Kurt Cousins, and Bryce Young leaves me in a strong position at quarterback. The mock draft analyzer ranked me second as a result.
Also, I feel the running back position is nicely stocked. Yes, there is the Week 7 bye problem to navigate. However, I have six weeks to work the waiver wire and find some replacements as running backs invariably get hurt, and handcuffs start to get more work.
Also, to have Chigoziem Okonkwo back up George Kittle means I am in an extremely strong position at the tight end position. Taking a strong performer in Kittle whilst having a high upside backup in Okonkwo means I have the best of both worlds at the position.
I was also delighted to get the Dallas Cowboys DST, who has finished second overall and first overall in the last two seasons, whilst also adding Matt Gay as my kicker. Gay has a great leg, and I expect the Colts, with rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson under center, will struggle to convert all their red zone opportunities as they start to click on offense, meaning more opportunities to shine and score points.
What area(s) of your draft would you have liked to improve?
The weakness of this team is the wide receiver corps. Whilst the starters ranked seventh, the flex spots of this team ranked 11th according to the mock draft analyzer. Getting Davante Adams at the end of round 2 is a great value. However, as I built the running back corps, I was expecting more QB2s to come off the board. This meant I missed out on a number of WR2s that I was expecting to fall to me.
Drake London is a high-upside WR2. After all, he was the third-ranked WR overall last year in team target share with 29.3% and was one of only two rookie WRs last year with over a 30% first read target share and achieving over two yards per route run. The other was Chris Olave. However, after that, the core is Jordan Addison, who already has some legal troubles to navigate. Courtland Sutton has struggled with injury for the last couple of years. And Rondale Moore, who could end up leading the Cardinals in targets, but has yet to contribute significantly to fantasy football, finishing as the WR78 in 2022.
This wide receiver corp is very boom or bust. It could lead this mock draft team to a championship. Or, it could cost this team a shot at the playoffs. Therefore, the waiver wire will need to come to my rescue if I want this team to succeed in 2023.
What lesson did you learn from today’s mock that you will apply to future drafts you partake in?
This draft reinforces the strategy that following value, instead of chasing the draft and chasing positions by reaching for talent, will yield a better-constructed roster.
I, unfortunately, chased the QB position and anticipated a run of QB2s that was late to occur. Whilst I also missed the run on QB3s, meaning I had to grab one of the last viable upside quarterbacks left on the board earlier than I would have liked.
Then I am guilty of trying to get ahead of a tight-end run that never occurred. I took the last tight end for over four rounds, meaning I missed out on trying to improve my wide receiver corps. This meant my flex positions really suffered as a result.
Therefore, the lesson here is to not chase runs that have already occurred. Because then you are chasing a position and losing value by reaching for a position you don’t need to reach for. However, you should not draft to what you have seen previously in drafts or ADP, as you can take a player at a position that the rest of the draft does not value. Taking Kittle in round 7, whilst appearing on the surface to be a value, hurt my team significantly. By taking James Conner there and taking a tight end two or three rounds later, I would have boosted my score by 51 points and finished with the third-ranked team, just nine points behind second. That mistake could be the difference between making the playoffs and not.
This shows the pressure of a 30-second pick clock. It becomes much harder to pivot from a strategy and from changes in ADP and things you are used to when you only have 30 seconds to view the board and make a decision. That means you have to be really alert when coming up to your pick. And the only way to do that is to do a lot more mock drafts.
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Adam Murfet is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Murf, check out his archive and follow him @Murf_NFL.