If I could use one word to describe the state of the running back position entering the 2023 season, it would be doubt.

There is more trepidation about the position — particularly at the top — than perhaps we’ve ever seen before. It certainly doesn’t help that NFL teams apparently don’t value the position much, as studs like Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, and Josh Jacobs have all failed to earn long-term contract extensions.

Currently, only five running backs are going inside the first round of 12-team, standard league drafts, per FantasyPros Average Draft Position. Our Expert Consensus Rankings have the same sentiment, with just five tailbacks ranked inside the top 12. Heck, Justin Jefferson is the top-ranked player as of right now in standard formats.

Despite all of this uncertainty, running back remains the most scarce position in fantasy football. And while the Zero RB strategy sounds good in theory, I’ve always felt it’s harder to execute in reality.

The question is whether the market is overreacting or providing a glimpse at the future of fantasy football.

• Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
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Matt Barbato’s Running Back Strategy for 2023 Fantasy Football

The uncertainty and negativity at running back offer a buying opportunity, especially early on. While I love Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and the other elite wide receivers, I still prefer to go running back off the bat, especially if I’m picking early in Round 1.

Obviously, injury risk is much higher for running backs than for wide receivers. But running back is still the more scarce position with much wider gaps between tiers. Jefferson is a stud, but I’m comfortable getting 80% of Jefferson with a receiver like CeeDee Lamb, who offers close to as much weekly upside anyways.

I’m most likely taking Christian McCaffrey, Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler, and Saquon Barkley ahead of Jefferson if I’m picking in the top 5. As of right now, I’m also buying Taylor and Jacobs as first-round picks unless their situations worsen.

Late-Round RB Strategy

By Rounds 9 and 10, I aim to have the bulk of my receiving depth, as well as a starting quarterback, already in place. This allows me to take flyers on running backs with talent and/or situational upside. With such a high rate of injury for tailbacks, I go into every season essentially assuming I’ll lose a starting RB to injury for at least a couple of games. That’s why building depth at tailback is critical to help fill the gaps.

Here are some names I’m targeting toward the tail end of my drafts:

• I find it curious that Jeff Wilson is being drafted after rookies De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. Wilson was the more effective runner once he was traded to Miami, averaging 4.7 yards per carry and scoring three touchdowns. While Miami could definitely leverage a committee approach, I could also see the Dolphins running the ball more to reduce Tua Tagovailoa‘s exposure to hits. Wilson is better than Mostert and younger than Achane, yet he’s the cheapest of the three.
• Tank Bigsby feels destined to serve as the goal-line vulture in Jacksonville alongside Travis Etienne. While Etienne could get the bulk of the work between the 20s, Bigsby could see his fair share of early-down and red zone work as a rookie.
• Jaylen Warren intrigues me as well and could end up going awfully late in drafts. I get the hunch Najee Harris‘ job as Pittsburgh’s lead back isn’t quite as secure as we might think. And there were stretches where Warren outperformed Harris last year.
• Keep an eye on Zonovan Knight as the preseason continues. There’s a chance Breece Hall isn’t healthy for Week 1. And while Michael Carter is listed as Hall’s primary backup, Knight may be the more effective back between the tackles. He and rookie Israel Abanikanda could be last-round flyers if Hall doesn’t return to practice and the Jets don’t end up signing Dalvin Cook.

More Fantasy Football Strategy Guides

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• Guide to Drafting Kickers (Why to Consider Not Drafting A Kicker)
• Guide to Drafting D/STs
• Hero RB Strategy & Targets
• Robust RB Strategy & Targets
• Zero RB Strategy & Targets | Was Zero RB Effective Last Season? | More Targets
• Late-Round QB Strategy & Targets | Was Late-Round QB Effective Last Season?
• Was Zero WR Draft Strategy Effective Last Season?
• Running Back Handcuff Rankings & Targets | Handcuff Strategy & Advice
• Training Camp Notes for RB Handcuffs
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• Value-Based Draft Strategy & Targets
• Quarterback-by-Committee Strategy & Targets
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• How to Approach the Tight End Position (More Tight End Draft Strategy)
• Players Who Lose Value in PPR Leagues
• Players Seeing Boosts in PPR Leagues
• Positional Disparity Guide
• Impact of Contract Years
• Offenses That Help & Hurt Running Backs | Tight Ends
• Vampire League Guide
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• Scott Fish Bowl 13 Strategy Guide
• Best Last-Place Punishments For Your Fantasy Football League
• Quarterback-By-Committee Strategy & Guide
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• ADP Explainer: What Is It & How To Use It Effectively

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