With running backs falling further down draft boards this year than in recent memory, it looks like a good year to utilize the Hero-RB strategy. First, take one of the true elite running backs early. Then, hit the WR position heavily while also considering TE and QB. Finally, return to the RB pool for those that might still be available later than they should.

• Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
• Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
• Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
• Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator

2023 Hero RB Targets

In 2022, 13 running backs were drafted in the first 24 picks in Underdog’s half PPR format. Thanks to the success of wide receivers last season, there are currently only eight RBs being drafted in the first two rounds this year. The ball carriers that are being taken in the first couple of rounds are worthy of being considered “Hero RB” candidates.

The table below shows the current Round 1 and Round 2 RBS along with where they ranked in respective measures last year.

The only running back being drafted in rounds 1-2 not listed here is Bijan Robinson who enters the league as the most promising rookie in several years after averaging 5.9 yards per carry in college and excelling in the passing game. For a player to be an ideal Hero RB candidate they have to have something that makes them truly stand out, whether that’s an ability in the passing game, excellent pure rushing ability, or a combination of several factors.

Late Hero RB Candidates

Outside of the top two rounds, there are more running backs who potentially tick these boxes, but their prices allow for ambiguity around their roles. We can consider them ‘Late Hero RB’ candidates where we stick to the philosophy of only taking one running back in the first six rounds, regardless of where we actually take that back.

Josh Jacobs (RB – LV)

It wasn’t long ago that Jacobs led the league in rushing yards and finished as the PPR RB3. Now, with uncertainty over his contract and the efficiency of the team, he falls as far as the fourth round. When Jacobs does return to the team, there is very little in the way of competition to stop him seeing a high volume of touchdowns and in Jimmy Garoppolo he has a quarterback more prone to checking down.

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)

If it weren’t for Hall’s unfortunate ACL injury, he’d likely be a mid-round-one pick right now. With his recovery from a far less-complex ACL tear than the one JK Dobbins dealt with last year, Hall is an excellent candidate for ‘Late-Hero RB’ builds, having displayed elite upside with 15.1 points per game in 2022, and now having a massive upgrade at quarterback in Aaron Rodgers.

Joe Mixon (RB – CIN)

The Bengals lost Samaje Perine to free agency and did little to replace him before getting Mixon to agree to a hefty pay cut in order to remain with the Super Bowl contenders. Mixon scored over 25% of his points in one game last year, but as long as he’s attached to this offense, we should be drafting him, particularly when he has such a clear path to elite volume.

Mid-to-late-Round Targets

If we have taken a Hero RB approach then we can look to capitalize on that by filling out other positions while we wait on another running back. Here are some backs to consider in the mid-to-late rounds of fantasy football drafts.

Miles Sanders (RB – CAR)

Free Agency didn’t deliver too many great running back deals, and Sanders probably received one of the best. With only Chuba Hubbard for competition, Sanders is an interesting player to have some exposure to and the Panthers continue to talk him up as a three-down back.

Samaje Perine (RB – DEN)

The Broncos aggressively pursued Perine in free agency, not only because of Javonte Williams‘s ACL injury but also because Sean Payton likes to utilize two running backs in an offense. Perine is a perfect Hero RB candidate as he’ll likely give you early-season production at a minimum.

Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI)

The Bears moved on from David Montgomery after he was outperformed by Herbert in a number of metrics including outcarrying Montgomery at 5.7 yards per carry to 4.0, along with having a big run rate of 5.88% compared to Montgomery’s 1.55%. This backfield feels messier than we’d like, but if there’s any back who could see the majority of carriers, it feels like Herbert is the safest bet.

Jaylen Warren (RB – PIT)

Najee Harris‘s opportunity share was 83% in 2021 but it dropped to 63% in 2022 with Warren taking some of the work away and flashing when he got chances. Warren outproduced Harris in yards per carry with 4.8 to Harris’s 3.8 and had 8.3 yards per reception to Harris’s 5.5. Harris has plenty to prove and will be looking to bounce back this year. If he doesn’t start out hot, Warren will be breathing down his neck before long.

More Players to Target & Avoid

• Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
• Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
• Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
• Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
• How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
• Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
• Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
• Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
• DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
• Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
• Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
• Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
• Players to Avoid in Each Round
• Late-Round Draft Targets
• Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
• Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
• Late-Round WR Targets
• Late-Round TE Targets
• Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
• WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
• Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
• 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
• 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
• Making the Case for RB1
• Post-Hype Sleepers

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