There are several ways to dominate your fantasy football draft. One of those ways is finding running backs outside the top 24 that end the year as an RB1.
Last year Tony Pollard (RB30), Rhamondre Stevenson (RB34), and Jamaal Williams (RB50) all had an ADP outside the top-24 running backs, according to FantasyData. Yet, all three ended the 2022 season inside the top-12 running backs. Meanwhile, Josh Jacobs was the 23rd drafted running back last season but finished the year as the RB3, averaging 17.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, a career-high.
Which running backs drafted outside the top-24 have a chance to finish as an RB1 this year? Let’s look at six potential candidates.
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
RB3s with RB1 Potential
Zach Charbonnet (SEA) – ADP 113.3 | RB40
No one should ever root for injuries. However, Charbonnet is one injury away from an RB1 finish. Last season Kenneth Walker III was the RB6, averaging 14.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game after taking over for an injured Rashaad Penny. The rookie would have similar success if Walker suffered a season-ending injury. Charbonnet averaged seven yards per rushing attempt last year at UCLA, putting him in the 92nd percentile. Furthermore, he finished third in yards after contact per attempt (4.15) among running backs with at least 190 rushing attempts. While it will take a season-ending injury to Walker for Charbonnet to become a top-12 running back, the rookie has significant upside at his ADP.
De’Von Achane (MIA) – ADP 123.7 | RB41
Many have called Achane this year’s Dameon Pierce, given his competition in the backfield. Last year Miami’s running backs combined to score 352.2 half-point PPR fantasy points. If one player had earned only 60% of that fantasy production, he would have been the RB12 last season and the RB8 the year before. Furthermore, that running back would have been the RB8 last year and the RB6 in 2021, with 65% of that fantasy workload. While Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. will have a role on offense to start the season, expect Achane to be the lead guy in the backfield come October.
Editor’s Note: Achane suffered a shoulder injury in Saturday’s preseason game against the Texans. Dr. Deepak Chona speculates the injury is an AC joint sprain with the likelihood he is near 100% by Week 1.
Jaylen Warren (PIT) – ADP 158.3 | RB50
Warren is arguably the top handcuff in fantasy football this year. Following his successful rookie season, the former Oklahoma State star will have a larger role in 2023. Last year the undrafted free agent running back averaged 4.9 yards per rushing attempt, seeing 14.3% of his rushing attempt go for 10 or more yards. Furthermore, he finished 21st in yards after contact per rushing attempt last season (3.08) among running backs with at least 60 rushing attempts. By comparison, Najee Harris averaged 2.75 yards after contact per rushing attempt last year. If Harris gets hurt or potentially benched, Warren will have top-12 upside.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
