The quarterback position in fantasy football is one where, each year, we find value in the later rounds to stack up our other skill-position players, especially wide receivers and tight ends.
Sure, we could go for the “known commodities” like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Jalen Hurts. Still, based on their ADP here at FantasyPros, you could be passing up on players like Derrick Henry, Jaylen Waddle, Garrett Wilson, or Josh Jacobs.
Thus, many teams will wait until the later rounds to draft their starting quarterback.
Here, we’ll examine quarterbacks getting drafted outside of the top 12 at the position that has a chance to ascend into the top five and provide a plethora of value.
Let’s check them out.
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
QB2s With Top-5 Potential
Average Draft Position (ADP) based on FantasyPros consensus
Geno Smith (SEA): ADP QB 15
Going as the QB15, Smith is not only in his second season as the Seahawks starter, but he also has a new running back in Zach Charbonnet and wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba to add to his weapons.
Last year, Smith finished as the QB5, so with these additions, why not again?
Sure, regression is a common subject, but Smith was phenomenal with the deep ball last season, completing 30 passes of 20+ yards for 846 yards and 14 touchdowns. That number could come down with another year added to the age ticker for Tyler Lockett, but he has Smith-Njigba now, too.
Smith can also use his legs. He ran for 366 yards and a touchdown last season. There’s no reason to think he won’t add to that rushing touchdown number.
He did it last year; he can do it again.
Anthony Richardson (IND): ADP QB16
Officially named the starting quarterback, Richardson will be the full-time guy for the Colts. While they’re still dealing with running back Jonathan Taylor and rectifying that situation, one thing we can feel confident about with Richardson is his overall athleticism. Metrics-wise, Richardson is slightly above Cam Newton, who dominated on the ground in his rookie season.
During the preseason, Richardson has attempted just 12 passes and thrown an interception. However, the sample size here is still tiny. We’ve seen some highlight-reel throws in practice, which is certainly encouraging.
He has some weapons to throw to, like Michael Pittman Jr., but Richardson’s real value lies in his rushing ability.
Richardson could punch his ticket to the top five if he can manage double-digit rushing touchdowns.
Kenny Pickett (PIT): ADP QB19
It wasn’t the most stellar start to a career for Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett, throwing just seven touchdowns, but he showed some skills that, in his second year, he could build off of, especially with the talented group of weapons around him.
Last season, Pickett attempted 12.1% of his passes 20+ yards downfield, where he threw four touchdowns. The average depth of the target was beyond 25 yards. This shows a level of confidence that could result in promising fantasy value, especially when you consider he has Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Allen Robinson, Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington, Najee Harris, and more at his disposal.
It would take a massive leap, but Pickett also showed some rushing upside, accumulating 235 yards and three touchdowns.
Last year, he averaged 12.2 points per start and missed four games. He finished as the QB28. If he averaged that across all 18 games, he would’ve been the QB18 or QB 19. Now, if you add 13 more touchdowns to his total from last year, making it 20, he shoots up to inside the top-12 based on the points from the touchdowns alone.
This is a lot of projection, but as the QB19 now, Pickett has some sneaky value.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
- Making the Case for RB1
- Post-Hype Sleepers
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