Thankfully, the 2023 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year, fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.
In the final installment of an eight-part series, I will identify two ADP values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers from the NFC West.
- AFC ADP Sleepers, Busts & Values: East | North | South | West
- NFC ADP Sleepers, Busts & Values: East | North | South | West
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
ADP Values, Busts & Sleepers: NFC West
ADP Values
Cam Akers (RB – LAR): ADP 56.7 | RB21
Akers is arguably the most polarizing player in fantasy football. Some love him, while others believe he’s overrated. Yet, that’s good news for the believers, as it pushes his ADP lower than it should be. Akers had a nightmare first half last season. He asked for a trade after finding himself in Sean McVay’s doghouse. However, the former Florida State star was the RB2 over the final four weeks, averaging 18.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, Akers forced a missed tackle on 22.7% of his rushing attempts in those contests.
The former Florida State star set career highs in rushing yards and touchdowns last season despite all the issues in the first half. Akers also averaged 2.78 yards after contact per rushing attempt, the same average as Saquon Barkley. Furthermore, he had 36 missed tackles forced on his 188 rushing attempts. By comparison, Christian McCaffrey has the same 36 missed tackles forced on 244 rushing attempts last year. More importantly, the Rams didn’t add any competition this offseason. Akers is prime to have a breakout season in a contract year.
James Conner (RB – ARI): ADP 60.3 | RB23
Casual fantasy players won’t draft Conner because of his age, name, or the team he plays for. However, the veteran running back is an underrated fantasy asset this year. Arizona improved their offensive line during the NFL Draft, using multiple draft picks on the offensive line, including their first-round selection of Paris Johnson Jr. Meanwhile, the team didn’t use a single draft pick or invest any significant money in the running back position this offseason. More importantly, Conner was outstanding last year after coming back from a chest injury.
The veteran running back averaged 21.3 touches and 17.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game over his final seven games. Furthermore, he averaged over 4.7 yards per rushing attempt in four of his last five contests. Conner was the RB5 from Week 10 through Week 17, averaging more fantasy points per game than Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb. More importantly, the veteran averaged 20.3 touches and 17.8 fantasy points per game in the four matchups without Kyler Murray. The Cardinals have a limited set of weapons. Therefore, fantasy players should expect Conner to have a heavy workload this season.
Bust Candidates
DK Metcalf (WR – SEA): ADP 35.7 | WR15
Fantasy players like to believe that Metcalf is the Seahawks’ No. 1 wide receiver. However, Tyler Lockett has been the better fantasy wide receiver for the past two years. Lockett averaged 12.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in 2021 and 12.2 fantasy points per game last season. By comparison, Metcalf averaged 12.2 fantasy points per game two years ago and 10.7 fantasy points per game last year. More importantly, Seattle used a first-round pick on Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The rookie has had an excellent training camp, leading some to believe the former Ohio State star will be the team’s No. 1 wide receiver before the 2023 season is over.
Yet, Metcalf’s ADP is 32 picks higher than Lockett’s and 57 picks higher than Smith-Njigba’s. Unfortunately, the star wide receiver isn’t efficient with his targets. Last season he averaged only 1.29 fantasy points per target, down 19.4% from the year before. Furthermore, Metcalf averaged only 2.6 yards after the catch per reception, a career low. He also averaged only 1.88 yards per route run, the lowest average in his career since his rookie season. More importantly, no Seahawk besides Lockett has had more than 63 targets any year since the team drafted Metcalf in 2019. That will change this season. Avoid drafting the veteran wide receiver anywhere near his third-round ADP.
Deebo Samuel (WR – SF): ADP 39.7 | WR16
I have never been a fan of the veteran wide receiver. Samuel had a massive year in 2021, and fantasy players continue to chase after what was a fluke season. The former South Carolina star averaged 18.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game that year. However, the veteran averaged only 13.5 fantasy points per game, removing his rushing production. More importantly, Samuel has struggled with injuries in his career, missing nearly 25% of the contests. Unfortunately, the arrival of Christian McCaffrey crushed the veteran wide receiver’s fantasy value.
Samuel was the WR10, averaging 12.9 fantasy points per game before the 49ers acquired McCaffrey. By comparison, he was the WR59, averaging nine fantasy points per game once the team added the superstar running back. Furthermore, the veteran wide receiver averaged 18.2 yards per reception and 1.79 fantasy points per target in 2021. The following year he averaged a career-low 11.3 yards per reception and 1.06 fantasy points per target. I don’t care how many shirtless pictures he sends Kyle Shanahan. Samuel is vastly overrated as the 16th wide receiver off the board.
Sleepers to Target
Geno Smith (QB – SEA): ADP 115.7 | QB16
There were several fantasy surprises last season, but none were as significant as Smith. After many projected the veteran to lose his starting job, the former West Virginia star had the best year of his career. Smith was the QB5, averaging 17.9 fantasy points per game. He finished fourth in the NFL in passing touchdowns, only behind Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow. Yet, the veteran is getting drafted over 6.5 rounds later than those three superstars. More importantly, the Seahawks did everything possible to help Smith this offseason. Instead of selecting his replacement, Seattle used a first-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
The veteran quarterback now has an excellent trio of wide receivers. More importantly, Smith was arguably the top deep ball passer in the NFL last season. He ranked fifth in deep ball completion percentage (45.5%), third in deep ball accuracy rating (6.6), first in passing touchdowns 20 or more yards downfield (14), and first in big-time throws 20 or more yards downfield by PFF (14). After the Seahawks finished 15th in pass attempts last season, many believe they will be more pass-happy this year. Fantasy players who want to wait on the quarterback position should make Smith their top target in the double-digit rounds.
Zach Ertz (TE – ARI): ADP 206.3 | TE29
Unfortunately, the veteran tight end suffered a season-ending torn ACL in Week 10 last year. However, Ertz was playing well before the injury. The former Philadelphia Eagle was the TE3 over the first nine weeks, averaging 10 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. He was also a focal point of the passing attack, averaging 7.6 targets per game over the first nine weeks. Furthermore, Ertz ranked seventh in red zone targets (15) and 11th in deep targets (seven) among tight ends despite missing nearly half the 2022 season.
More importantly, the veteran tight end should be ready to play in Week 1 after the Cardinals recently activated the former Stanford star from the Physically Unable to Perform list. Most fantasy analysts believed Ertz would likely miss the first half this season recovering from the torn ACL. Instead, the veteran should be on the field for the Week 1 matchup against the Washington Commanders. While his ADP will rise between now and the start of the regular season, it won’t get high enough to take Ertz out of the sleeper discussion.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
- Making the Case for RB1
- Post-Hype Sleepers
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
