Thankfully, the 2023 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year, fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.
In the seventh part of an eight-part series, I will identify two ADP values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers from the NFC South.
- AFC ADP Sleepers, Busts & Values: East | North | South | West
- NFC ADP Sleepers, Busts & Values: East | North | South | West
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
ADP Values, Busts & Sleepers: NFC South
ADP Values
Miles Sanders (RB – CAR): ADP 48.3 | RB19
The 2021 season was one to forget for Sanders and his fantasy players. The former Penn State star was the RB45, averaging 8.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, he didn’t have a single touchdown despite totaling 163 touches that season. Thankfully, Sanders bounced back last year. He was the RB13 in 2022, averaging 12.2 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, the veteran had 11 rushing touchdowns, beating his career total entering the season by two. Sanders was also one of the more underrated runners last year.
He finished 13th in evaded tackles (64), 14th in true yards per rushing attempt (4.7), and 15th in breakaway runs (12) among running backs. Unfortunately, the veteran had almost no impact in the passing game, totaling only a 5.2% target share and 40.3% route participation. However, that will change in Carolina. Running backs have averaged 116.5 targets per year in the four full years Frank Reich was with the Indianapolis Colts. More importantly, Sanders could have even more rushing upside now that he doesn’t have to split goal-line work with Jalen Hurts.
Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL): ADP 63.7 | TE6
Fantasy players had high hopes last year for Pitts following his impressive rookie season. The former Gator was the TE7 in 2021, averaging 8.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite scoring only one touchdown. However, he joined Mike Ditka as the only two tight ends to have over 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie. Unfortunately, Pitts was a massive fantasy bust last year, finishing as the TE33, averaging 6.2 fantasy points per game. However, fantasy players should expect a bounce-back season from the former Gator.
Unfortunately, Marcus Mariota held Pitts back last year. His catch rate dropped from 61.8% as a rookie to 47.5% last season. Furthermore, he had a 59.3% catchable target rate, one of the worst in the NFL. More importantly, Mariota completed only 23.5% of his pass attempts over 20 yards downfield. However, the former Gator had the highest target share among tight ends in 2022 (34.3%) and has a 91.2% route participation rate in his career. While Desmond Ridder won’t be an elite quarterback, he only has to be better than Mariota for Pitts to succeed this season.
Bust Candidates
Rachaad White (RB – TB): ADP 69.7 | RB28
White became a popular fantasy draft target after the Buccaneers released Leonard Fournette. Furthermore, the team only added Chase Edmonds and Sean Tucker to their backfield this offseason, making the former Arizona State star an even more popular draft pick. While the second-year running back will have a featured role this season, White was underwhelming as a rookie. Last year, he averaged only 3.7 yards per rushing attempt and 2.3 yards after contact per attempt, ranking second to last in both categories among running backs with at least 120 rushing attempts.
The former Arizona State star also lacked home run ability. Last season only 6.2% of White’s rushing attempts were for 10 or more yards. Furthermore, only 3.1% of his rushing attempts went for 15 or more yards last year. The second-year player had only eight rushing attempts totaling 10 or more yards as a rookie, the fewest among running backs with at least 120 rushing attempts. Meanwhile, White finished 48th in yards per touch (4.3), 36th in juke rate (21.8%), and 38th in evaded tackles (39) among running backs last season. While he has a featured role, the second-year man likely won’t be effective with those touches.
Michael Thomas (WR – NO): ADP 107.7 | WR42
A few years ago, the fantasy football community drafted Thomas with a first-round pick and never thought twice about it. He had a record-breaking year in 2019. The veteran was the WR1 that year, averaging 18.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, totaling 149 receptions on 185 targets for 1,725 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. However, plenty has changed since Thomas’ record-breaking year. The former Ohio State star has played only 10 games over the past three years, totaling 56 receptions on 77 targets for 609 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
Furthermore, the veteran averaged only 10.7 fantasy points per game over those 10 contests despite having 7.7 targets per matchup. By comparison, Thomas averaged 11.6 targets per game in 2019. Unfortunately, the former Ohio State star likely won’t see that target volume this year with Chris Olave as the clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver. More importantly, the Saints invested in their running backs this offseason, adding Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller to go with Alvin Kamara. While Thomas has plenty of name value, fantasy players are better off avoiding the injury-prone 30-year-old wide receiver.
Sleepers to Target
Adam Thielen (WR – CAR): ADP 143.3 | WR54
The veteran wide receiver has seen his fantasy production decline over the past few years. After totaling 24 receiving touchdowns in 2020 and 2021, Thielen had only six last season. Yet, the former undrafted free agent still has plenty left in the tank. He was the WR13 on a points-per-game basis two years ago, averaging 12.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest, only 0.2 fewer than Tee Higgins. Meanwhile, the veteran was the WR30 last season, averaging 8.5 fantasy points per game, his lowest average since 2015. However, he also saw his targets per game drop.
Thielen averaged 7.3 targets per game in 2021 and 6.3 per game last season, despite Kirk Cousins having 82 more pass attempts than the year before. More importantly, the veteran will be Bryce Young‘s security blanket receiver after the Panthers traded away DJ Moore this offseason. Moore averaged 133.5 targets per season over the past four years. Even if Thielen only sees 75% of those targets (100), he would have ranked 32nd among wide receivers last season. His days as a fantasy WR1 or WR2 are likely over. Yet, Thielen is undervalued at his late 12th-round ADP.
Juwan Johnson (TE – NO): ADP 188.3 | TE21
There isn’t much with the ADP or ECR I strongly disagree with, but Johnson’s TE21 ranking makes no sense. Last year, the former college wide receiver turned tight end was the TE11, averaging 7.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, a career-high. Furthermore, he set career highs in receptions (43), targets (65), receiving yards (508), and touchdowns (seven). Johnson led the team in receiving touchdowns while finishing top three in receiving yards and targets. More importantly, the developing star finished third in receiving touchdowns among tight ends last year, only behind Travis Kelce and George Kittle.
Fantasy players shouldn’t worry about the arrival of Jimmy Graham and Foster Moreau. Graham didn’t play last season and hasn’t had over 460 receiving yards since 2018. Moreau was solid for the Las Vegas Raiders, filling in for Darren Waller. Yet, he has only seven receiving touchdowns since his rookie season. Meanwhile, Johnson played with Derek Carr and the first team offense in the Saints’ Week 1 preseason matchup. More importantly, Johnson should have a larger role this season, especially if Michael Thomas again struggles with injuries. While he lacks top-three upside, Johnson is my favorite sleeper tight end this season.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
