Thankfully the 2023 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.
In the fifth part of an eight-part series, I will identify two ADP values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers from the NFC East.
- AFC ADP Sleepers, Busts & Values: East | North | South | West
- NFC ADP Sleepers, Busts & Values: East | North | South | West
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
ADP Values, Busts & Sleepers: NFC East
ADP Values
Tony Pollard (RB – DAL): ADP 18.3 | RB8
Unfortunately, Pollard had a limited role his first three years in the NFL, sitting behind Ezekiel Elliott on the depth chart. However, the former Memphis star was a popular breakout candidate last year. Despite having an ADP outside the top-24 running backs, Pollard was the RB7 in 2022 after having his first 1,000-yard rushing season, averaging 14.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, the former Memphis star had 12 scrimmage touchdowns last season after totaling 10 career touchdowns entering the year. More importantly, he was a home run threat.
Pollard finished third in the NFL in breakaway runs (17) and fourth in breakaway run rate (8.8%). Furthermore, he was fourth in yards per route run (1.82) and eighth in yards created per touch (3.3) among running backs last season. Meanwhile, the star running back will have a larger workload in 2023 after the Cowboys released Elliott. Last year the veteran had 231 rushing attempts for 876 yards and 12 touchdowns. While all those rushing attempts won’t fall into Pollard’s lap, the star running should easily see over 220 rushing attempts after totaling 193 last season. Pollard has no business getting drafted outside the top-five running backs.
Darren Waller (TE – NYG): ADP 65.3 | TE7
I have gone back and forth on Waller this offseason. The veteran tight end used to be a fantasy superstar. He was the TE2 in 2020, averaging 9.1 targets and 14.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, the former superstar has struggled with injuries over the past two years, missing 41.2% of the contests, including eight last season. Furthermore, his targets per game dropped to 6.8 per contest over the past two years. However, Waller could become a fantasy superstar again in 2023.
Despite dealing with injuries last season, the veteran tight end was productive. He led all tight ends in deep targets (13) despite missing nearly half the year. Furthermore, Waller finished second in yards per reception (13.9), fifth in yards per target (nine), and 11th in yards per route run (1.69) among tight ends. More importantly, the Giants lack a go-to No. 1 wide receiver. Meanwhile, Waller has been the star of New York’s training camp. While the veteran tight end comes with some risk, it’s baked into his ADP. Waller can push Travis Kelce for the TE1 finish if he stays healthy.
Bust Candidates
Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG): ADP 7.7 | RB3
Fantasy players were afraid to draft Barkley a few weeks ago after the star running back threatened to sit out the 2023 season because of the franchise tag. Thankfully, the former Penn State star signed the franchise tag and reported to training camp. However, fantasy players should be cautious with the veteran running back. Last year he was the RB6, averaging 16 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, his highest average since 2019. Yet, Barkley had a season of two halves last year.
The star running back was the RB4, averaging 18.4 fantasy points per game and 4.7 yards per rushing attempt over the first 10 weeks. Furthermore, Barkley scored at least 13.7 fantasy points in all but one contest. Unfortunately, the former Penn State star was the RB11 from Week 11 through Week 17, averaging 12.9 fantasy points per game and four yards per rushing attempt. He scored under 6.5 fantasy points in four of those seven matchups. More importantly, the veteran finished 34th in yards per touch (4.7) and 35th in true yards per carry (4.1) among running backs. Barkley is a star but shouldn’t get drafted as a top-five running back.
D’Andre Swift (RB – PHI): ADP 64.7 | RB25
While the fantasy football community loves Swift’s talent, the veteran running back has struggled to stay on the field in his NFL career. Yet, the former Georgia star was the RB22 last season, averaging 11.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Swift had only 99 rushing attempts and five touchdowns last year, both career lows. Furthermore, he totaled 542 rushing yards, only 21 more than his total as a rookie. However, the former Georgia star was an RB2 for fantasy players because of his role in the passing game.
Swift has averaged 3.9 receptions on 5.1 targets for 30 receiving yards per game in his career. The Detroit Lions leaned on Swift and their running backs in the passing game the past few years. Unfortunately, that’s unlikely to be the case with the Eagles. Last year the Philadelphia backfield had a combined 11% target share. Yet, that number isn’t surprising given the team’s elite wide receiver duo and star tight end. More importantly, Swift started training camp as a focal point in the passing game. Now he’s losing snaps and touches to Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Gainwell. I would draft Rachaad White and Alvin Kamara with a later ADP over Swift.
Sleepers to Target
Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS): ADP 98.7 | RB35
Last season Gibson struggled compared to his first two years in the NFL. However, the former Memphis star wasn’t awful for fantasy players. He was the RB30, averaging 9.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, finishing ahead of Brian Robinson Jr. While the arrival of Robinson impacted Gibson’s fantasy value, other things played a role in his struggles, including the dysfunctional playcalling. However, the former Memphis star was a top-12 running back during his rookie and sophomore season in the league. While he might not return to that level of play, fantasy players should expect a bounce-back season from the veteran running back.
Eric Bieniemy turned Jerick McKinnon into a low-end RB2 last season despite having only 72 rushing attempts, thanks to his role in the passing game. Meanwhile, the Commanders released J.D. McKissic, giving Gibson the featured role in the passing game out of the backfield. While he struggled on the ground in 2022, the former Memphis star was impressive in the passing game. He finished top-12 in target share (12%), yards per reception (7.7), yards per route run (1.66), and catch rate (79.3%) among running backs. The coaching staff has talked nonstop about Gibson this offseason. He has too much upside to be the 35th running back off the board.
Brandin Cooks (WR – DAL): ADP 100.3 | WR39
The veteran wide receiver had a disappointing 2022 season. Cooks was the WR49, averaging only nine half-point PPR fantasy points per game, the second-lowest average of his career. Some will argue that the former Oregon State star is washed up after seeing his fantasy points per game average decline over the past three consecutive years. However, that’s not true. Last season the Houston Texans offense was a disaster, averaging only 17 points per game, the third-fewest in the NFL. Thankfully, Cooks joined the Cowboys this offseason after the team averaged 27.5 points per game last year, the fourth highest in the NFL.
More importantly, the veteran wide receiver gets a significant upgrade at quarterback. Last year Cooks ranked 84th among wide receivers in catchable target rate (68.8%). That won’t be the case this season with Dak Prescott healthy. More importantly, the veteran wide was productive two years ago despite playing with Davis Mills. He was the WR20 in 2021, averaging 11.7 fantasy points per game. Meanwhile, Cooks has been outstanding at training camp and looks determined to return to his old level of play. While CeeDee Lamb will limit his fantasy upside, the veteran should easily outperform his ADP.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.