Thankfully the 2023 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.
In the fourth part of an eight-part series, I will identify two average draft position (ADP) values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers from the AFC West.
- AFC ADP Sleepers, Busts & Values: East | North | South | West
- NFC ADP Sleepers, Busts & Values: East | North | South | West
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
ADP Values, Busts & Sleepers: AFC West
ADP Values
Travis Kelce (TE – KC): ADP 5.7 | TE1
Many have discussed if Kelce is worthy of the 1.01 pick this offseason. I dove into the topic and came away with the opinion that the superstar is worthy of a top-five pick but not the 1.01 selection. The future Hall of Famer scores like a top-10 wide receiver or running back every year, using finishing close to the top five. More importantly, Kelce has been the TE1 for four of the past five years. Last season he was the TE1, averaging 15.4 half-point points per reception (PPR) fantasy points per game. The superstar averaged four more fantasy points per game than any other tight end.
Kelce is prime for another superstar season in 2023. The Chiefs lost JuJu Smith-Schuster in free agency after the veteran finished second on the team in targets last year. While Kansas City has three young wide receivers they have high hopes for, Kelce will again be the focal point of the passing attack. Furthermore, the veteran will be Patrick Mahomes‘ go-to target in the red zone. Last year the superstar had 30 red zone targets, the most in the NFL. Kelce is all but a lock to finish the year as the TE1.
Keenan Allen (WR – LAC): ADP 45.3 | WR19
Last year was frustrating for Allen and his fantasy players. The veteran wide receiver missed seven games and left others early because of a nagging hamstring injury. However, he was the WR11 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 13.1 fantasy points per contest. Furthermore, last season was the sixth consecutive year that Allen averaged over 12.7 fantasy points per game. More importantly, the star wide receiver was outstanding once he recovered from the hamstring injury.
The veteran wide receiver only played two games over the first 10 weeks last season, totaling six targets and 10.7 fantasy points. However, Allen was excellent once he got over the hamstring injury. Starting in Week 11, the veteran was the WR4 for the rest of the year, averaging 15 fantasy points per game. He would have been the WR6 over a 17-game pace with that fantasy points per game average last season. While the Chargers drafted Quentin Johnston, the rookie will mostly impact Mike Williams‘ target share, not Allen’s. Therefore, the veteran is a steal as a late fourth-round pick.
Bust Candidates
Josh Jacobs (RB – LV): ADP 21.7 | RB9
It has been a wild past 15 months for Jacobs. The Raiders declined his fifth-year option months after hiring Josh McDaniels as their new head coach. Then the former Alabama star played in the Hall of Fame game last year, throwing the fantasy football community into chaos. Instead of getting traded or put in a timeshare backfield, Jacobs had a career year. The veteran was the RB3 last season, averaging 17.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he led the NFL in rushing yards while finishing top five in attempts and touchdowns.
Unfortunately, fantasy players have to be nervous drafting Jacobs this year. The veteran running back hasn’t shown up to training camp and could sit out part or all of the season. Even if Jacobs shows up for training camp tomorrow, fantasy players still should be nervous about drafting him. He averaged 3.95 yards per rushing attempt over the previous two years before last season but averaged 4.9 yards per rushing attempt in 2022, a career-high. Meanwhile, what will happen if Jacobs suffers an injury? Will he fight through it or use it as an excuse to sit on the bench and wait for the offseason?
Kadarius Toney (WR – KC): ADP 109.7 | WR43
I have never been a fan of Toney’s. The third-year wide receiver has had a limited NFL career because of injuries and poor production. He has two receiving touchdowns in 19 career games, both coming last year. Yet, Toney saw his targets per game drop by 61% from his rookie year to last season. Meanwhile, the former Gator wide receiver has missed 44.1% of the games in his career because of various injuries. More importantly, he suffered a knee injury early in training camp. While the Chiefs expect him to play Week 1, fantasy players should be cautiously optimistic.
Some will say Toney is due for a third-year breakout after his performance in the Super Bowl last year. However, the young wide receiver had only one target in the game for five yards. While his punt return set up a touchdown for Kansas City, the former Gator played only six offensive snaps in the game, the fewest among the wide receivers and fewer snaps than third-string tight end Jody Fortson. More importantly, Skyy Moore, Richie James, and Rashee Rice have had strong performances during training camp. There is no way I’m drafting Toney anywhere near his 10th-round ADP.
Sleepers to Target
Samaje Perine (RB – DEN): ADP 109.3 | RB38
Thankfully Javonte Williams appears ready to go for Week 1 after suffering a severe knee injury last season. However, running backs typically struggle in their first year returning from a torn ACL. More importantly, Perine’s ADP has slipped over the past two weeks following the positive news about Williams. Yet, fantasy players should still target the former Oklahoma running back at his ADP. Last year Perine averaged 7.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, a career-high. Furthermore, he averaged 24 touches and 17.9 fantasy points per game in his two starts.
Meanwhile, the Broncos didn’t sign Perine this offseason to be Williams’ handcuff. Sean Payton has historically used two running backs in his coaching career. The good news for fantasy players is that both guys usually have meaningful production. Williams likely will receive most of the groundwork while Perine handles the passing game role. The former Oklahoma back finished 15th among running backs in yards per route run (1.34) and 14th in yards per reception (7.6) last season. The lower Perine’s ADP slips, the better value it is for fantasy players.
Russell Wilson (QB – DEN): ADP 146.3 | QB18
Wilson had high expectations in his first season in Denver. Unfortunately, it was a nightmare for the team and fantasy players. The veteran quarterback averaged 15 fantasy points per game and had only 16 passing touchdowns, both career lows. However, the former Seattle Seahawk played better at the end year. He averaged two passing touchdowns and 20.1 fantasy points per game over his final four contests, scoring 23 or more points three times. More importantly, Wilson had arguably his two best performances after the team fired Nathaniel Hackett.
The veteran quarterback had 505 passing yards, four passing touchdowns, and two rushing scores in the two games without Hackett, scoring at least 23 fantasy points in both matchups. Meanwhile, he finished first in deep ball attempts (87), fourth in air yards per attempt (9.2), and eighth in dropped passes (30) last season. Wilson has reportedly cut weight this offseason and looks like his old self. While the Broncos recently lost Tim Patrick to a season-ending injury for the second consecutive year, the veteran quarterback still has plenty of weapons around him. Wilson likely won’t have a top-five year in 2023. Yet, he will easily outperform his QB18 ADP.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (v2)| How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts | How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts | How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
