Thankfully the 2023 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.
In the third part of an eight-part series, I will identify two ADP values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers from the AFC South.
- AFC ADP Sleepers, Busts & Values: East | North | South | West
- NFC ADP Sleepers, Busts & Values: East | North | South | West
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Expert Consensus Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
ADP Values, Busts & Sleepers: AFC South
ADP Values
Calvin Ridley (JAC): ADP 44.3 | WR18
Unfortunately, Ridley has only played five games over the past two years because of a suspension and mental health issues. However, the former Alabama star was outstanding the last time he was on the field. Ridley was the WR4 in 2020, averaging 15.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Yet, the superstar wasn’t a massive target hog. He had a 25.8% target share that season, the 10th highest among wide receivers. Furthermore, Ridley finished ninth in the NFL with 143 targets.
More importantly, the veteran averaged 0.43 fantasy points per route run that year despite finishing 15th among wide receivers in routes run. Meanwhile, Ridley’s target quality wasn’t very good that year, ranking 68th among wide receivers in catchable target rate. While some are worried the superstar will struggle after missing nearly two years of football, that seems unlikely. Ridley reportedly has shown no signs of rust this offseason. Furthermore, he has become a consistent go-to target for Trevor Lawrence. While Ridley likely doesn’t end the as a top-12 wide receiver, he is an excellent WR2 option for fantasy players.
Anthony Richardson (IND): ADP 118.3 | QB16
Typically quarterbacks fail to turn into consistent fantasy starters during their rookie season. Over the past seven years, the highest-scoring rookie quarterback averaged a QB18 finish. Furthermore, over the past seven years, only two rookies ended the season as a top-15 quarterback – Justin Herbert in 2020 (QB9) and Kyler Murray in 2019 (QB8). Herbert was a high-volume passer, finishing fourth in the NFL with 595 passing attempts despite not playing Week 1. Meanwhile, Murray had the ninth most pass attempts and the second-most rushing yards among quarterbacks. So what does that mean for Richardson?
Rookie quarterbacks typically struggle unless they become high-volume passers or offer significant rushing attempts. While Richardson likely doesn’t finish top-25 in pass attempts this season, the former Gator could lead all quarterbacks in rushing yards. The rookie was an electric runner in college. More importantly, head coach Shane Steichen spent the past two years with Jalen Hurts, turning the quarterback into a fantasy star. In his first year as the starter, Hurts was the QB9, averaging 20.8 fantasy points per game. He had 139 rushing attempts for 784 yards and 10 touchdowns that year. If Richardson starts all season, the former Gator could have similar production.
Bust Candidates
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND): ADP 75.7 | WR31
Last year Pittman was a popular third-year breakout candidate. He finished the season as the WR23, averaging 10.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, that was down from the 2021 season, where Pittman was the WR15, averaging 11.4 fantasy points per game, both career highs. Last year the former USC star saw his target volume improve, going from 7.6 targets per game in 2021 to 8.8 per game last season. However, he had fewer receiving yards and touchdowns. Furthermore, Pittman’s yards per route run dropped from a career-high 1.95 in 2021 to 1.44 last season.
While everyone thought Matt Ryan would be an upgrade over Carson Wentz, that wasn’t the case. The Colts’ quarterback situation last year crushed Pittman’s fantasy upside. Unfortunately, Indianapolis’ situation isn’t much better this season. Anthony Richardson has significant fantasy upside, but it mostly comes from his legs. Meanwhile, Gardner Minshew might not even start Week 1, let alone half the year. More importantly, Alec Pierce is heading his second year, while the Colts added Isaiah McKenzie and Josh Downs in the offseason. While Pittman isn’t vastly overpriced, fantasy players should target Diontae Johnson and a few other wide receivers with a later ADP over the former USC star.
Evan Engram (JAC): ADP 82.3 | TE8
Engram was a popular sleeper candidate last year after signing a one-year deal with the Jaguars. The veteran was the TE6, averaging 8.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Many are excited about the former Ole Miss star following his top-six season in 2022. However, fantasy players should look deeper into Engram’s numbers. The veteran scored half his fantasy points for the year in a four-week window. While he was the TE1 during that four-game window, Engram struggled in the other 13 contests.
The veteran tight end averaged only 5.4 fantasy points per game outside of his impressive four-week stretch. Over a 17-game pace, Engram would have been the TE20 with that fantasy points per game average. Furthermore, the former Ole Miss star saw his target volume explode during those four weeks, averaging 10 targets per game. By comparison, he averaged only 4.5 targets per game for the rest of the season. Despite having a top-six season, Engram finished third on the team in targets (98). Meanwhile, the Jaguars added Calvin Ridley this offseason. There is no way Engram has a top-10 season in 2023 unless Ridley or Christian Kirk miss significant time.
Sleepers to Target
Nico Collins (HOU): ADP 161.3 | WR58
Houston traded away Brandin Cooks in the offseason, creating an open competition for the No. 1 wide receiver role. Despite signing veterans Robert Woods and Noah Brown in the offseason, there are three potential candidates to fill that role this season – Collins, John Metchie III, and Tank Dell. All three have positive reports over the past few months. However, Collins has a leg up on the other two. Last year the former Michigan star was the WR78, averaging only 7.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Yet, he was the WR48 on a points-per-game basis last season, averaging only 0.5 fewer fantasy points per game than Drake London.
Furthermore, Collins was a top-48 wide receiver on a points-per-game basis despite finishing third on the team in targets. Thankfully, the two guys ahead of him are no longer on the team. Meanwhile, the two veterans the Texans added each averaged under 5.9 fantasy points per game last season. Neither is a threat to Collins. More importantly, the third-year receiver got a significant upgrade at quarterback, going from Davis Mills to C.J. Stroud. Despite Mills ranking 43rd in catchable pass rate, Collins was second in contested catch rate among wide receivers. The former Michigan star is an under-the-radar third-year breakout candidate and should have a top 140 ADP.
Ryan Tannehill (TEN): ADP 200.3 | QB31
Fantasy players in 1QB leagues likely won’t need to consider Tannehill in their draft unless it’s a 16 or 18-team league. Yet, he should have some value as a streaming option in 1QB leagues this season. The veteran was the QB26 last year, averaging only 13.4 fantasy points per game, his lowest average since joining the Titans. Unfortunately, he did miss five games with injuries after not missing a game over the past two years with an injury. More importantly, Tennessee finished bottom five in pass attempts, yards, and touchdowns last season. However, that likely won’t be the case in 2023.
Last year Tannehill’s top two targeted players were Robert Woods and Austin Hooper. Thankfully, Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo are light years ahead of where they were last season as rookies. More importantly, the Titans added DeAndre Hopkins after he was the WR10 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 13.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest last year. Remember, the veteran was the QB7 in 2020, supporting two top-32 wide receivers, including a top-12 one, while Derrick Henry was the RB2. While he likely won’t end the year as a QB1, Tannehill has high-end QB2 upside and is one of my favorite quarterback sleepers in superflex leagues.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator (v2)| Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator | Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator | Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
