Thankfully the 2023 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.
In the second part of an eight-part series, I will identify two ADP values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers from the AFC North.
- More Fantasy Football Advice
- AFC ADP Sleepers, Busts & Values: East | North | South | West
- NFC ADP Sleepers, Busts & Values: East | North | South | West
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Expert Consensus Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
ADP Values, Busts & Sleepers: AFC North
ADP Values
Joe Mixon (CIN): ADP 41.7 | RB17
I started the offseason being an anti-Mixon fan. However, I’ve come around on the veteran running back. Is Mixon a superstar? No. He’s averaged under 4.2 yards per rushing attempt each of the past four seasons. Yet, there is plenty to like about the former Oklahoma running back from last season. Mixon was the RB12, averaging 15 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite playing an average of 2.7 fewer games than the other 11 top-12 running backs. Furthermore, the veteran was the RB7 on a points-per-game basis, averaging more fantasy points per game than Tony Pollard and Aaron Jones.
Some will point to Mixon’s massive performance in Week 9 against the Panthers and say that inflated his fantasy production for the year. While that is true, that statement is exaggerated. First, almost every star player has a massive spike week at least once a year. Second, the veteran still averaged 12 fantasy points per game in the other 13 contests. Over a 17-game pace, he would have been the RB14 last season with that fantasy average. With Samaje Perine in Denver, Mixon should have a career year in the passing game after setting career highs in that area in 2022.
Diontae Johnson (PIT): ADP 84.3 | WR34
Fantasy players who drafted Johnson last year might be afraid to pick him again this season. The veteran was the WR9 in 2021, averaging 13.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, the former Toledo star was only the WR39 last season, averaging 8.1 fantasy points per game. Yet, Johnson’s targets per game average only dropped by 1.3 per contest. After finishing second in the NFL in 2021 with 169 targets, the veteran wide receiver finished seventh last year with 147. Where fantasy players got screwed was in the touchdown department.
Over the first three years of his career, Johnson averaged 6.7 receiving touchdowns per season, totaling at least five every season. Furthermore, he had eight receiving touchdowns in 2021, a career-high. Unfortunately, he didn’t find the end zone last season despite finishing top 10 in targets. By comparison, Dyami Brown had only 14 targets in 2022 but scored two receiving touchdowns. Johnson can’t be that unlucky at finding the end zone again. Had the veteran scored 6.7 receiving touchdowns last season, he would have been the WR19, averaging 10.5 fantasy points per game.
Bust Candidates
Pat Freiermuth (PIT): ADP 89.7 | TE9
The 2021 NFL Draft class had an elite tight end prospect – Kyle Pitts. However, Freiermuth was the second tight end drafted and would likely be the first tight end selected in most other years. The former Penn State star had a solid rookie season, ending the year as the TE13, averaging 7.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he finished sixth among tight ends and 23rd in the NFL in receiving touchdowns (seven). By comparison, Jaylen Waddle had six receiving touchdowns that year. Therefore, everyone was excited when Freiermuth ended last season as the TE8.
However, the devil is in the details. While the former Penn State star finished five spots higher last year than his rookie season, he averaged fewer fantasy points per game. Last year Freiermuth averaged 7.3 fantasy points per game. While the slight dip in fantasy points per game isn’t a red flag, it shows that last season’s tight ends weren’t elite for fantasy players. More importantly, George Pickens is entering his second year in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Steelers added Darnell Washington during the NFL Draft. Both players will limit Freiermuth’s upside in the red zone, making him unworthy of his eighth-round draft ADP.
Odell Beckham Jr. (BAL): ADP 117.7 | WR44
Beckham was a fantasy superstar the minute he joined the NFL. The former LSU star was the WR6 as a rookie, averaging 20.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest and the WR1 on a points-per-game basis. Furthermore, only Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck averaged more fantasy points per game that year than the rookie receiver. While the superstar averaged at least 15.4 fantasy points per game every year with the Giants, Beckham has never been the same player since leaving New York.
Part of the superstar’s decline was injuries. The former LSU star has missed 32.3% of the games in his career, including 58% over the past three years. Furthermore, Beckham will go 19 months between playing in the Super Bowl and Week 1 of the 2023 regular season. More importantly, the Ravens have several weapons, limiting Beckham’s target share upside. He never had lower than a 25% target share in New York, earning a 27.2% target share or higher in four of five seasons. Unfortunately, those days are long behind him. Fantasy players should draft Elijah Moore and Quentin Johnston with a later ADP over Beckham.
Sleepers to Target
Deshaun Watson (CLE): ADP 81.3 | QB10
Last year was one to forget for Watson and his fantasy players. After averaging a 2.9-1 touchdown to interception ratio over the first four years of his career, the veteran had a 1.4-1 ratio last season. However, the fantasy football community should give the star quarterback a mulligan, given everything that happened over the past two years. Watson went 700 days between starts after his last game with the Texans was during the 2020 season. Furthermore, he changed teams and offenses before jumping in midseason with the Browns trying to make a playoff run.
Yet, the veteran played better to end the season. After having only two passing touchdowns over his first four starts as a Brown, averaging 11.5 fantasy points per game, Watson had five passing touchdowns and averaged 19.7 fantasy points per contest in the final two matchups last year. Meanwhile, Cleveland added several new weapons this offseason, giving the veteran quarterback arguably his best receiving core ever. More importantly, Watson finished as a top-five quarterback in each of his final three seasons in Houston. Expect the veteran to return to his superstar level of play this year.
Elijah Moore (CLE): ADP 126.7 | WR47
The entire fantasy football community had high hopes for Moore last year. He ended his rookie season on fire. The former Ole Miss star was the WR2, averaging 17.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game over his final five games as a rookie, only getting outscored by Cooper Kupp during those five weeks. Unfortunately, last season was a nightmare for Moore and anyone who drafted the second-year receiver. Instead of having a sophomore-year breakout, the former Ole Miss star struggled to earn a role with the Jets.
Despite the team having a poor receiving core outside of Garrett Wilson, Moore couldn’t earn consistent snaps or targets. After having his trade request denied, he averaged only 4.4 fantasy points per game last season. However, Moore got traded to the Browns in the offseason and looks reborn in Cleveland. The former Ole Miss receiver has been the star of the team’s offseason workouts, building a strong connection with Deshaun Watson. While Amari Cooper remains the Browns’ No. 1 wide receiver, Moore is the better value as an 11th-round pick. The former Ole Miss star is my favorite post-hype sleeper this season.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
