Thankfully the 2023 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.
In the first part of an eight-part series, I will identify two ADP values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers from the AFC East.
- More Fantasy Football Advice
- AFC ADP Sleepers, Busts & Values: East | North | South | West
- NFC ADP Sleepers, Busts & Values: East | North | South | West
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Expert Consensus Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
ADP Values, Busts & Sleepers: AFC East
ADP Values
James Cook (BUF): ADP 83.3 | RB31
The fantasy football world had high hopes for the former Georgia running back last year. Unfortunately, things didn’t go according to plan. Cook was the RB45, averaging only six half-point PPR fantasy points per game as a rookie. However, the second-year running back could be this year’s Rhamondre Stevenson. The Bills lost Devin Singletary this offseason in free agency, replacing the veteran with Damien Harris.
While the former Patriot had 15 rushing touchdowns in 2021, he struggled to stay healthy last season. More importantly, Cook is an explosive and dangerous running back in the open field. Last year 13.5% of his rushing attempts went for double-digit yards. Furthermore, he finished first in breakaway run rate (12.1%). Short of a significant injury, Cook will have no trouble finishing the year as a top-20 running back or better.
Aaron Rodgers (NYJ): ADP 111.3 | QB14
Last year Rodgers had the worst season of his career. The future Hall of Famer was the QB13, averaging only 14.1 fantasy points per game, nearly 20% lower than his previous career low as the starter in 2019. However, the superstar was battling a thumb injury on his throwing hand for most of the year. Furthermore, Rodgers was throwing to a pair of rookies after losing Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the offseason.
Despite last year being a disappointing one for fantasy players, the veteran is a steal as the 14th quarterback off the board. Rodgers has never finished the season lower than the QB9 in any year of his career when he plays at least 15 games before last season. Furthermore, the Future Hall of Famer has eight top-two finishes in his career. More importantly, he has built a strong connection with Garrett Wilson. Fantasy players who wait on quarterbacks should have Rodgers on their targets list.
Bust Candidates
Breece Hall (NYJ): ADP 24.3 | RB10
Earlier this offseason, Hall had a top-five ADP among running backs. Thankfully, his draft price has rightfully slipped over the past several weeks. However, he is still not worthy of his RB10 draft position. Last year the former Iowa State star was near unstoppable. Hall was the RB6, averaging 15.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game before the season-ending knee injury. Furthermore, he averaged 5.8 yards per rushing attempt and 4.13 yards after contact per attempt as a rookie.
Unfortunately, the second-year star started training camp on the PUP list. The team reportedly believes he will be able to practice in a few weeks, suggesting there is no doubt that Hall will be ready for Week 1. However, things can quickly change in the NFL. Furthermore, his health isn’t the only concern. The Jets recently brought Dalvin Cook in for a visit. Whether it’s the former Viking or another veteran, New York likely will add a veteran to the backfield. More importantly, running backs tend to struggle coming off a torn ACL. Hall has too many red flags attached to his name.
Dalton Kincaid (BUF): ADP 132.7 | TE14
Everyone loves to find this year’s sleeper tight end. Last year there were a few popular names. However, fantasy players shouldn’t expect Kincaid to be that guy or have consistent value as a rookie. The former Utah star has been the talk of training camp on social media, with multiple highlights and conversations about his versatility. Unfortunately, that won’t result in a top-12 fantasy finish this season.
Over the past 12 years, there have been only two tight ends to finish their rookie year as a TE1. Those two are Kyle Pitts (TE7) in 2021 and Evan Engram (TE6) in 2017. Furthermore, those two rookies combined to average only 8.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. More importantly, Kincaid won’t see the target volume as those two rookies. Pitts had 110 targets, while Engram had 115. Meanwhile, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis combined for a 43% target share last year. Unless one of the veteran wide receivers misses significant time, Kincaid will struggle to outperform his ADP.
Sleepers to Target
De’Von Achane (MIA): ADP 117.3 | RB41
Fantasy players can’t make heads or tails of the Miami backfield. The team reportedly offered Dalvin Cook a contract that the veteran turned down. If he signs with the Jets or another team, will the Dolphins sign a different veteran running back like Leonard Fournette or Kareem Hunt? However, that uncertainty has kept Achane’s ADP lower than it should be. Fantasy players should be 100% on board drafting the rookie as a 10th-round pick until news breaks that the Dolphins are signing a veteran running back.
Last year the Miami backfield scored 352.2 half-point PPR fantasy points. Had one guy earned 100% of the work, he would have been the RB1. Instead, the production was spread over several players, as the Dolphins couldn’t rely on one guy. However, even if one player accounted for only 60% of that production, he would have been the RB12 last season. If the Dolphins don’t sign a veteran, Achane will easily beat out Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr.for the lead role. He could be this year’s Dameon Pierce.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR – NE): ADP 128.7 | WR49
Unfortunately, Smith-Schuster has never been able to repeat his early career fantasy success. The former USC star was the WR21 as a rookie, averaging 11.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, before having the best year of his career in 2018, ending the season as the WR9, averaging 15.1 fantasy points per game. Since then, the veteran receiver has averaged over 9.2 fantasy points per game only once in his career. While his days as a fantasy superstar are over, fantasy players should target Smith-Schuster at his ADP.
The former USC star was the WR29 last season, averaging 9.1 fantasy points per game. Despite the disappointing fantasy points per game average, Smith-Schuster had over 100 targets and the second-most receiving yards of his career. However, the veteran will replace Jakobi Meyers as New England’s No. 1 wide receiver. Last year Meyers was the WR28, averaging 6.9 targets and 10.5 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he led the Patriots in targets the past three years, averaging 6.7 per contest. While Smith-Schuster won’t be a fantasy star, he will be a safe floor WR3 or flex option for fantasy players.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.