When it comes to drafting your fantasy football team, sometimes it can feel more confusing than it needs to be. While deep dives into data and analytics are great, there are often a few ways to get a leg up on your competition that don’t feel like rocket science. Andrew Erickson has shared one of those strategies to follow as you’re making decisions between players on draft day: prioritize players on good offenses. Erickson lays out his case in that article. Below we’ll take a look at a few fantasy football draft picks to consider on one of these offenses, the Bills.
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Fantasy Football Players to Target
Buffalo is down just two spots from the year before (thanks Gabe Davis). But Davis’ fall from grace is worth buying. Because the hate has gone too far. He finished as a WR1 at a higher rate last season than DeVonta Smith and Brandon Aiyuk. Davis had more top-12 finishes than Mike Evans, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Chris Olave and Deebo Samuel. But because he couldn’t meet his unrealistic expectations, his 2023 ADP has cratered outside the top 40 WRs. But what has changed about his projected outlook?
With the rest of Buffalo’s supporting WR cast filled out with Trent Sherfield, Khalil Shakir, Deonte Harty and Justin Shorter…Davis is going to have the opportunity to be a big factor in the Bills passing game. Unless rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid commands an extremely high target share, Davis can easily be trusted as a fantasy WR3/4 with plenty of upside as a post-hype sleeper. All the reasons to be “in” on him last season are there in 2023. Keep in mind, Davis finished 9th in routes run per game last season (39.3) ahead of Diggs (36.6, 16th). He also ranked 22nd in red-zone targets and 13th in deep targets.
But if you simply cannot go back to Davis, there are still plenty of value options on the Buffalo offense including RB Damien Harris, TE Dalton Kincaid and WR Deonte Harty.
You can find their sleeper write-ups in my article, Fantasy Football Sleepers for All 32 NFL Teams (2023).
Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Leverage ADP
As you prepare for your fantasy football draft, it’s important to have a sense of rankings and where players are being drafted. Of course, this will change league-to-league, but you can usually get a sense of where a player is likely to go in your draft with a little fantasy football research. To really zero in on a player’s average draft position (ADP), you can use our consensus ADP. This, combined with our Expert Consensus Ranking, will allow you to get a sense of players that are drafted earlier or later in general drafts versus where the experts would recommend you targeting them.
For example, if you have a player with an ADP of No. 12 overall, but our consensus of experts view them as a top-five player, that’s probably someone you want to consider targeting in the back-end of the first round. On the flip side, if a player has an average draft position of No. 5 overall but our experts view the player as outside of the top-10 overall in their rankings, you’re likely better off allowing one of your league mates to make that draft pick.