Every offseason, we see turnover in coaching staffs. New play callers are installed, and our fantasy assets’ offensive projection equation changes. Another wrinkle when projecting how every NFL offense will look for the upcoming season is to peek in the rearview mirror. Each team’s offensive identity can change and evolve during an NFL season. It’s crucial that we look back and examine each team’s final weeks from the previous season as we look for changes and trends that could continue into the next year.
Which teams will look different on offense in 2023? Let’s find out.
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Pace and Play Calling Changes (2023 Fantasy Football)
Offenses that will run more plays in 2023
New York Giants
Over their final nine games, Brian Daboll cranked up the pace, ranking ninth in neutral pace and sixth in no-huddle rate. While the Giants were still fourth in no-huddle rate in their first eight games, they were 23rd in neutral pace. One of the reasons I’m sky-high on this offense is that Daboll will push the pace more this season, with Daniel Jones entering his second season in the system. More play volume equals more opportunities to score fantasy points.
Los Angeles Chargers
Yes, the Chargers were second in neutral pace (26.0 seconds per snap) last year, but we will still see an uptick in play volume here with the arrival of Kellen Moore. The Chargers were only 14th in no-huddle rate last year, which also needs to be considered. During Moore’s tenure in Dallas, his offenses ranked second in neutral pace (25.6 seconds per snap) and fifth in no-huddle rate. Everyone should be investing in this offense in 2023. They will set the league on fire this year.
Detroit Lions
Ben Johson set the offense to sprint down the stretch last year. In Weeks 14-18, Detroit was eighth in neutral pace, a massive change from their early season ways. Before this shift in approach, Detroit was 20th in neutral pace. Look for this darling sleeper squad to be a top-10 pace team in 2023.
Offenses that will pass more in 2023
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars offense took flight as Trevor Lawrence washed the Urban Meyer stink from his mind. After starting Weeks 1-11, ranking 18th in neutral passing rate, the Jaguars closed the season ranking seventh in neutral passing rate across their final seven games. Trevor Lawrence flashed the franchise-changing potential we were robbed of in his rookie season. He was fifth in PFF passing grade and 10th in EPA per play after Week 10. With Lawrence entering his second season in this system with a true WR1, expect Doug Pederson to continue to bump up the passing rate.
Detroit Lions
The Lions’ passing offense will roar in 2023 if they continue their late-season ways from 2022. In Weeks 11-18, Detroit was 12th in neutral passing rate. This was after they ranked 24th in the same category through the first 10 weeks. Jared Goff ranked ninth in pass attempts per game and eighth in EPA per play over his final seven games.
Baltimore Ravens
It’s fair to question how much more Baltimore will pass this season with Todd Monken calling plays as long as we can agree that they WILL PASS MORE in 2023. Monken finished top-five in passing attempts in two of his last four seasons as an offensive coordinator. The Ravens’ former run game play calling zealot Greg Roman has only once ranked higher than 28th in pass attempts in an NFL season. Invest in these birds to fly this season.
Offenses that will rush more in 2023
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Yes, we can use common sense here. Will Dave Canales let Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask sling it around the yard as much as Tom Brady did in 2022? Not a chance. While this is obvious, we still need to talk about it. Last year, Tampa Bay was fourth in neutral passing rate. During Canales’ tenure as the passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach in Seattle (2020-2022), the Seahawks were eighth in neutral passing rate. Add in that Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask are nowhere close to Tom Brady and Russell Wilson regarding talent, and the regression to a run-balanced offense is easy to envision.
Arizona Cardinals
This is Drew Petzing’s first year calling plays for an NFL team, so we have no clue what this Cardinals’ offense will look like. It’s easy to say that they lean towards rushing more, though. Last year under Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona was eighth in neutral passing rate. Petzing has spent his last three seasons in Cleveland as the team’s tight end coach before transitioning to quarterbacks last year. Cleveland has been notoriously run-heavy over the past few seasons, ranking 10th in neutral rushing rate in 2022. James Conner should see all the volume he can handle this year.
Las Vegas Raiders
Last year, Josh McDaniels wanted a high-flying passing offense, but the pieces never fit nicely. The Raiders opened the season (Weeks 1-11) ranking fourth in neutral passing rate. McDaniels changed course in Week 12. After that point, Las Vegas was 12th in neutral rushing rate. With Jimmy Garoppolo serving as the team’s new starting quarterback, I doubt that McDaniels will return to his pass-heavy ways.
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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, FantasyPros, PFF, ESPN, Football Outsiders, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*