Fantasy Football Draft Strategy & Advice: Quarterback Consistency (2023)

In fantasy football, we often look for ceiling outcomes from players to propel our rosters past our opponents and toward a championship. One aspect that is often overlooked, however, is consistency. Consistency can save fantasy managers from question marks at a starting roster spot, and inconsistency can cause plenty of headaches.

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Quarterback Consistency (2023 Fantasy Football)

High-End Consistent Quarterbacks

In 2022 two quarterbacks stood out far and beyond the rest of the competition. Both Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts averaged over 25 fantasy points per game and put up ten top-five weekly finishes. For Jalen Hurts, this represented a large leap from his first season as a starter in 2021, when he managed two top-five performances in 15 games.

Patrick Mahomes also saw a marked leap in his high-end consistency, setting a career-best in top five weekly finishes with 10, compared to his career average of six per year, proceeding 2022.

Both Mahomes and Hurts excelled as top 12 quarterback options, with Mahomes a top 12 quarterback in 15 of his 16 performances and Hurts a QB1 in 13 of his 14 performances. This level of consistency is exactly what fantasy managers need to have faith in drafting a quarterback highly. Mahomes, specifically, is by far and away the most consistent quarterback in the league, having placed inside the top 12 on 56 of his 75 starts (74%).

Consistent Passers

The mark of a consistent quarterback isn’t only measured in their top fantasy performances. There are other factors that can be helpful for the players within their offenses. For fantasy purposes, we need to know that a quarterback can support their passing options if we’re going to have faith in starting them each week.

The table below shows the quarterbacks with the most games of 250 passing yards in 2022 while also showing which quarterbacks consistently passed for two or more touchdowns. In this area of consistency, we can see that, again, Patrick Mahomes led the way, but players like Jared Goff and Kirk Cousins were also very steady.

If we consider what has changed for them in 2023, it feels fair to assume that both players could be equally as consistent in 2023 as Cousins has gained Jordan Addison and Jared Goff hasn’t lost anyone of note.

This table also shows us that Dak Prescott and Derek Carr might not be fantasy stars, but in around 50% of their games, they’ll throw for 250+ passing yards and two or more passing touchdowns. This is the kind of consistency we don’t necessarily want for a starting quarterback in single QB formats, but as a second option in Superflex leagues, they’re perfectly fine.

Inconsistent Players

It can be incredibly frustrating to roster an inconsistent quarterback, and some of the most inconsistent quarterbacks in 2022 were some who also have true league-winning potential.

There is a clear difference in potential between the likes of Daniel Jones, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, Jimmy Garoppolo and Ryan Tannehill. The dual threats have the ability to deliver game-changing performances. Still, all three of them dealt with a lack of weapons in 2022, with the Bears choosing to not surround Fields with talent, while the Giants and Ravens suffered injuries that depleted their quarterback’s options.

Meanwhile, Garoppolo and Tannehill are both quarterbacks on the downslide of their careers who have failed to be consistent in recent years and now appear to have shaky job security that could be an issue in 2023.

2023 Expectations

The likes of Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts will be drafted with zero doubts about their ability to be consistent in 2023, and even Josh Allen should be more consistent this year after dealing with injuries during the 2022 campaign.

Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields are excellent candidates to be more consistent performers in 2023, with the Ravens adding Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham, while the Bears gave Justin Fields the best receiver he’s had in the NFL in the form of DJ Moore. Importantly for both the Ravens and Bears, the offensive line units look to be in good shape too, which can make a huge difference in a quarterback’s ability to make magic happen.

Jared Goff and Kirk Cousins are cheaper options who have demonstrated an ability to be consistent. With nothing detrimental happening to their surrounding offenses, we can have some faith they’ll continue that, and they can be excellent QB2 options for Superflex leagues.

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