The wide receiver position is an enigmatic one. Some of them are divas personified and love to be the center of attention. Others are quiet lunch pail guys, the real Gs who roll in silence like lasagna. Whichever column they fall into, there is a multitude of factors that go into whether or not they are successful in the stat sheet for us fantasy managers.

WRs might be playing through nagging injuries or draw tough matchups. They are at mercy of inconsistent (or plain bad) quarterback performance and might even wallow in their coach’s doghouse for a period of time. Sometimes, all the promise in the world of a good season never materializes. QB-independent performance charting sites, most notably Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception (RP), can shed light on who is the real culprit when a WR lets us down. Real value can be found on WRs coming off poor campaigns this time of year. Here are the ones I expect to bounce back in 2023 and outplay their average draft position (ADP).

• Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
• Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
• Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
• 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit

4 Bounce-Back WRs

DJ Moore (WR – CHI)

After three-consecutive 1,100-yard seasons, Carolina WR DJ Moore suffered his worst NFL season since his 2018 rookie campaign. The Panthers have never spritzed the former Maryland Terrapin with the refreshing mist of good QB play, but 2022 was an abject disaster for Moore. His target count plummeted from a career-high 163 to only 118, and only 63 of them were completed. His embarrassing 888-yard total was only slightly alleviated by a career-high seven touchdowns. He always deserved better, and now he gets his just desserts.

Justin Fields is a phenomenal passer. Despite the constant noise to the contrary, Fields’ accolades at Ohio State were much more centered on his throwing ability than his incredible mobility. Moore is Fields’ best WR since college, while Fields is by far the best QB that has ever thrown the ball to Moore. Training camp footage leads us to believe there is already chemistry between the two. None of that should add anything to the equation. I was all in on this marriage from the beginning.

Elijah Moore (WR – CLE)

Some coaches simply cannot peel their egos out of the way to help themselves. Elijah Moore was outstanding as a rookie, showing early signs of him becoming an elite separator from slot and flanker. He is also a force to be reckoned with after the catch, something noted by scouts during his time at Ole Miss. The Mike LaFleur doghouse in 2022 was a disgraceful reversal of expectation but may be a moment in history that defines the real beginning of a special career.

Moore did not fit in with the Jets. His arrival in Cleveland is a best-case scenario in this instance. Deshaun Watson is in a different stratosphere of talent compared to Zach Wilson and Mike White. Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski has gone from a lot of heavy 12-personnel (one back, two tight ends) to more of a modern 11-personnel three-wide philosophy to keep defenses honest. Adding Moore to the route tree is a huge upgrade over a second TE in passing situations. With his talent level, it is within his range of outcomes to push Amari Cooper for the most productive WR on the team this season.

Michael Thomas (WR – NO)

I used to make all sorts of jokes about “Slant Boy” not actually wanting to play football as long as the direct deposits still hit the bank. Over the last three seasons, it was difficult to imagine how he was missing so many games for what was reported as an injury that took other players much less time from which to recover. Thomas is still a fantastic football player. Since Drew Brees and Sean Payton departed, the culture was not the same in the Big Easy. MT wasn’t the same either.

2023 ushers in a new era for the Saints. Derek Carr is the new franchise QB, which I might be more excited about than most. Carr is far and away better than Andy Dalton, who was handed the job over Jameis Winston in a move that puzzles me to this day. Thomas says he is healthy and excited to get out there alongside blossoming star WR Chris Olave. Rashid Shaheed and rookie AT Perry are unproven but are known more for stretching the field vertically than their route running. MT is unlikely to return to the gazillion targets he earned in his Brees-era prime, but even a semi-healthy season would certainly come with a stat line that would annihilate his ADP.

Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS)

Penn State has produced some incredible WR talent over the years. From Allen Robinson to Chris Godwin, the pedigree continues with Commanders WR Jahan Dotson. Despite some of the most atrocious QB play ever witnessed during his time in Happy Valley, Dotson still showed out on tape and matched elite route running with some of the strongest hands in the NFL today.

Dotson fought through injuries throughout his 2022 rookie season in Washington while also dealing with inauspicious QB play from Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke. He compiled 61 targets in 12 games, reeling in 35 of them for a 14.9-yard average and two touchdowns. According to RP, Dotson enjoyed a success rate better than the average charted WR in every type of route except one (Flat). That kind of versatility as the flanker opposite Terry McLaurin is going to be very important in 2023 with Sam Howell at QB.

Dotson was also well above average versus man and zone coverages alike and was in the 87th percentile versus press. I think Howell is one of the more underrated QBs in the NFL entering this season, making Dotson a sleeper cell waiting to break out in a massive way.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio