We’re coming up on the first full week of the NFL preseason, and soon we’ll be in the heart of fantasy draft season. FantasyPros analysts Derek Brown, Andrew Erickson, Pat Fitzmaurice and Mike Maher continue a series of preseason roundtables by discussing notable training camp news, player stances they’re second-guessing, and the Seahawks’ wide receivers. And check out last week’s fantasy football roundtable for even more expert advice!
- Identifying Rookie WR1s & WR2s | 6 Wide Receivers Most Likely to Become WR1s
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
Fantasy Football Draft Advice
Let’s drill down on a particular position group that’s getting a lot of attention from fantasy managers. How are you approaching the Seahawks’ wide receivers?
D.K. Metcalf | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Tyler Lockett
Andrew Erickson: I am drafting all of the Seattle WRs. But I particularly love D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Metcalf has a tremendous ceiling after he finished second overall in red zone targets behind Justin Jefferson in 2022. Metcalf’s team target share ranks sixth over the last two seasons, and he has not missed a single game during his four-year NFL career. JSN fits the exact archetype of a slot WR whom a hyper-accurate QB like Geno Smith will love targeting over the middle of the field. I think Tyler Lockett is a decent value where he is drafted, but I don’t think he has the same upside as the other two guys. Lockett will be 31 years old and is coming off a year in which his production was heavily boosted by TDs. In fact, no WR scored more TDs over expectation than Lockett did in 2022 (9 TDs, 5.8 expected TDs). Lockett’s expected fantasy points per game output (10.2) was WR32. His 22% target rate ranked 36th, and his team target share ranked 22nd.
Mike Maher: I’m still kind of in awe of what Geno Smith was able to do in 2022. I’m also not completely buying that Smith is an elite QB after a decade of mediocrity that says otherwise. That said, I don’t think he’s going to completely crater to the point that it severely impacts the fantasy relevance of these three wide receivers. As for those receivers, I’m targeting them in reverse order of their ECR and ADP: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR37), Tyler Lockett (WR31), D.K. Metcalf (WR15). That mostly means I’m getting one of JSN or Lockett in most drafts and haven’t been walking away with any Metcalf shares. Metcalf is a fun player, but he also turned 141 targets into just 1,048 yards and six touchdowns. Lockett received 117 targets and managed to produce 1,033 yards and nine touchdowns. Lockett finished as WR13 in Half PPR last season, while Metcalf finished as WR17. And with JSN now added to the mix, why exactly are we drafting Metcalf as a top-15 WR in 2023?
Pat Fitzmaurice: Approach with caution. I have some exposure to all three Seattle receivers, but I’m nervous that Geno Smith could torpedo the collective fantasy value of this group. (It sounds like Maher is nervous about this as well, but I’ll bet my palms are sweatier than his.) It seems as if a lot of people missed Geno’s late-season swoon. In his first 12 regular-season games, he had a 72.7% completion rate, a 108.7 passer rating, 22 TDs and 6 INTs while averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt. The rest of the way, he had a 63.3% completion rate, 83.9 passer rating, 8 TDs and 5 INTs while averaging 6.2 yards per attempt. It’s possible the abundance of pass-catching talent props up Geno and his numbers. Still, I can’t help but worry about a quarterback who had his first good season in 2022 after entering the league in 2013.
Derek Brown: I have no issues drafting Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf in the areas of the draft where they reside, but the player I keep hammering and increasing my offseason exposure to is Jaxon Smith-Njigba. JSN has already emphatically checked the boxes I look for in a rookie wide receiver. First-round pedigree? Done. Elite production profile? Yep. Smith-Njigba is a WR3/4 in many drafts, which is a steal. That’s his floor this season if Metcalf and Lockett box him out for targets. It’s not pricing in his upside as a talented enough player to earn targets at a higher rate than his two veteran counterparts or if injury strikes Metcalf or Lockett.
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