Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid: T.J. Hockenson & Jameson Williams (2023)

Thankfully the 2023 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.

In the sixth part of an eight-part series, I will identify two likely-to-bust candidates from the NFC North.

AFC ADP Sleepers, Busts & Values: East | North | South | West
Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator

Bust Candidates

T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN): ADP 42.7 | TE3

Last year Hockenson was a double-digit round draft pick in most leagues. Yet, the former Iowa star had the best year of his career. He was the TE2, averaging 10.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, a career-high. Furthermore, Hockenson had 86 receptions on 129 targets for 914 receiving yards and six touchdowns, all career highs. The veteran tight end was outstanding after joining the Vikings. He was the TE3, averaging 10.7 fantasy points per game from Week 8 through Week 17. Unfortunately, the former Iowa star was wildly inconsistent with Minnesota.

Hockenson averaged 10.7 fantasy points per game with the Vikings (not counting Week 18). However, he scored 27.4% of those fantasy points in the Week 16 matchup. By comparison, the veteran averaged only 8.7 fantasy points per game in the other nine contests. Furthermore, Hockenson scored more than 9.6 fantasy points in only two of those nine games. Meanwhile, Jordan Addison should have a larger target share than Adam Thielen did last year. Hockenson is a solid mid-range TE1 for fantasy players. Yet, he lacks the upside needed to get drafted ahead of Darren Waller and Kyle Pitts.

Jameson Williams (WR – DET): ADP 131.7 | WR50

The Lions and fantasy players knew Williams would have a limited rookie season because of a torn ACL. The first-round wide receiver played in six games but had almost no impact, catching only one of his nine targets. However, it was a 40-yard touchdown reception. Furthermore, the rookie had one rushing attempt for 40 yards. While the former Alabama star showed off his big play ability, Williams had another setback this offseason. The second-year receiver will miss the first six games this year after he violated the NFL’s gambling policy.

Unfortunately, the suspension severely impact’s the receiver’s fantasy value. Most leagues won’t allow fantasy players to place a suspended player in an injured reserve slot. Therefore, you must burn a bench spot for someone who can’t play until Week 7. That wouldn’t be a problem for an established star. However, I’m not burning a bench spot for six weeks on a player that doesn’t offer top-12 upside. Amon-Ra St. Brown will once again be a massive target hog. Meanwhile, Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta will likely be the next two highest-targeted Lions. Sadly, Williams isn’t worth his draft price simply because of the suspension.