Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid: Saquon Barkley & D’Andre Swift (2023)

Thankfully the 2023 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.

AFC ADP Sleepers, Busts & Values: East | North | South | West
Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
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Fantasy Football Draft Busts

Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG): ADP 7.7 | RB3

Fantasy players were afraid to draft Barkley a few weeks ago after the star running back threatened to sit out the 2023 season because of the franchise tag. Thankfully, the former Penn State star signed the franchise tag and reported to training camp. However, fantasy players should be cautious with the veteran running back. Last year he was the RB6, averaging 16 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, his highest average since 2019. Yet, Barkley had a season of two halves last year.

The star running back was the RB4, averaging 8.4 fantasy points per game and 4.7 yards per rushing attempt over the first 10 weeks. Furthermore, Barkley scored at least 13.7 fantasy points in all but one contest. Unfortunately, the former Penn State star was the RB11 from Week 11 through Week 17, averaging 12.9 fantasy points per game and four yards per rushing attempt. He scored under 6.5 fantasy points in four of those seven matchups. More importantly, the veteran finished 34th in yards per touch (4.7) and 35th in true yards per carry (4.1) among running backs. Barkley is a star but shouldn’t get drafted as a top-five running back.

D’Andre Swift (RB – PHI): ADP 64.7 | RB25

While the fantasy football community loves Swift’s talent, the veteran running back has struggled to stay on the field in his NFL career. Yet, the former Georgia star was the RB22 last season, averaging 11.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Swift had only 99 rushing attempts and five touchdowns last year, both career lows. Furthermore, he totaled 542 rushing yards, only 21 more than his total as a rookie. However, the former Georgia star was an RB2 for fantasy players because of his role in the passing game.

Swift has averaged 3.9 receptions on 5.1 targets for 30 receiving yards per game in his career. The Detroit Lions leaned on Swift and their running backs in the passing game the past few years. Unfortunately, that’s unlikely to be the case with the Eagles. Last year the Philadelphia backfield had a combined 11% target share. Yet, that number isn’t surprising given the team’s elite wide receiver duo and star tight end. More importantly, Swift started training camp as a focal point in the passing game. Now he’s losing snaps and touches to Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Gainwell. I would draft Rachaad White and Alvin Kamara with a later ADP over Swift.