Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid: Rachaad White & Michael Thomas (2023)

Thankfully, the 2023 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year, fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.

In the seventh part of an eight-part series, I will identify two likely-to-bust candidates.

AFC ADP Sleepers, Busts & Values: East | North | South | West
Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator

Bust Candidates

Rachaad White (RB – TB): ADP 69.7 | RB28

Rachaad White became a popular fantasy draft target after the Buccaneers released Leonard Fournette. The team only added Chase Edmonds and Sean Tucker to their backfield this offseason, making the former Arizona State star an even more popular draft pick. While the second-year running back will have a featured role this season, White was underwhelming as a rookie. Last year, he averaged only 3.7 yards per rushing attempt and 2.3 yards after contact per attempt, ranking second to last in both categories among running backs with at least 120 rushing attempts.

The former Arizona State star also lacked home run ability. Last season, just 6.2% of White’s rushing attempts were for 10 or more yards. Furthermore, only 3.1% of his rushing attempts went for 15 or more yards last year. The second-year player had only eight rushing attempts total 10 or more yards as a rookie, the fewest among running backs with at least 120 rushing attempts. Meanwhile, White finished 48th in yards per touch (4.3), 36th in juke rate (21.8%) and 38th in evaded tackles (39) among running backs last season. While he has a featured role, the second-year man likely won’t be effective with those touches.

Michael Thomas (WR – NO): ADP 107.7 | WR42

The fantasy football community drafted Michael Thomas with a first-round pick a few years ago and never thought twice about it. He had a record-breaking year in 2019. The veteran was the WR1, averaging 18.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, totaling 149 receptions on 185 targets for 1,725 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. However, plenty has changed since Thomas’ record-breaking year. The former Ohio State star has played only 10 games over the past three years, totaling 56 receptions on 77 targets for 609 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

Furthermore, the veteran averaged only 10.7 fantasy points per game over those 10 contests despite having 7.7 targets per matchup. By comparison, Thomas averaged 11.6 targets per game in 2019. Unfortunately, the former Ohio State star likely won’t see that target volume this year with Chris Olave as the clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver. More importantly, the Saints invested in their running backs this offseason, adding Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller to go with Alvin Kamara. While Thomas has plenty of name value, fantasy managers are better off avoiding the injury-prone 30-year-old wide receiver.