Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid: Najee Harris & Joe Mixon (2023)

Break out the sunscreen, a fan, and a tank top. The temperatures have reached scorching levels, which can mean only one thing outside of the fact that I’m safe inside with my spreadsheets, AC, and best ball drafts. Fantasy football season is quickly approaching, and now is the time to start prepping for your leagues. Don’t worry. I’ve been grinding all offseason and have prepared a list of the players I’ll be avoiding like the plague. And below you’ll find a few free picks to help you prepare. Let’s have a great season.

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Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE

Derek Brown’s Players to Avoid

Here are a few of my players to avoid in 2023 fantasy football.

Najee Harris (RB – PIT)

At this point… Najee Harris is uglier David Montgomery

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) July 6, 2023

Weeks	Yards after contact per attempt	Breakaway %	Elusive rating
1-5	2.48	7.2%	39.3
6-18	2.83	14.6%	67.4

In the first five weeks of last season, Harris struggled with a metal plate in his shoe while playing through a preseason Lisfranc injury. His tackle-breaking and explosive play ability suffered immensely. After the plate was removed after Week 5, Harris looked more like the player we saw in his rookie season, as he ranked 22nd in Yards after contact per attempt and tenth in elusive rating. His ability to provide explosiveness still was lacking, though, as he had the fifth-lowest breakaway percentage among running backs across his final 12 games. It’s sad, but at this juncture, Harris looks like ugly David Montgomery in fantasy, which, to be honest, is probably too heavy-handed and a slight to Montgomery. Montgomery bests Harris in career yards per route run, PFF receiving grades, and YAC per reception. The Steelers coaching staff came to their senses and worked in the lightning-in-a-bottle Jaylen Warren more as the last season wore on. We could see that continue in 2023, with Warren taking even more work away from Harris. After Week 5 last season, Warren bested Harris with 30.6% of the team’s high-value touches as Harris sat at 17.8%. After a rookie season where Harris played less than 75% of the snaps only three times, Harris only crossed that mark three times in 2022. After Week 5, Warren posted 1.6 yards per route run and drew a target on 23% of his routes run, which dwarfed Harris (0.87, 20%). Warren can further eat in Harris’s snaps in 2023, especially on passing downs which will send Harris packing his bags for bust town.

Joe Mixon (RB – CIN)

Yes, I know this could be crazy sauce as Mixon was the RB7 in fantasy points per game, but his efficiency numbers went into the trash can last year. Mixon survived on weighted opportunities (11th-best) and his passing game role. He finished seventh in target share, fifth in receptions, and 11th in yards per route run. If Mixon holds his every-down role this season and continues gobbling up check-downs, then he’ll likely bury me, but I have no problem fading a back that, outside of those passing game numbers, was atrocious in 2023.

Among 45 running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts last year, he was 39th in Yards after contact per attempt, 36th in breakaway percentage, and 42nd in elusive rating (per PFF). Mixon finished with only one 100-yard rushing game and four games with at least 100 total yards in the regular season. The Bengals also began to lean on Samaje Perine down the stretch as Mixon only eclipsed 60% of the snaps only once after Week 9. Mixon might be the new Uncle Lenny, but considering his massive fall-off as a rusher, it won’t take much for another back to eat into his workload as Perine did.