Thankfully, the 2023 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year, fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.
- AFC ADP Sleepers, Busts & Values: East | North | South | West
- NFC ADP Sleepers, Busts & Values: East | North | South
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
Bust Candidates
DK Metcalf (WR – SEA): ADP 35.7 | WR15
Fantasy players like to believe that Metcalf is the Seahawks’ No. 1 wide receiver. However, Tyler Lockett has been the better fantasy wide receiver for the past two years. Lockett averaged 12.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in 2021 and 12.2 fantasy points per game last season. By comparison, Metcalf averaged 12.2 fantasy points per game two years ago and 10.7 fantasy points per game last year. More importantly, Seattle used a first-round pick on Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The rookie has had an excellent training camp, leading some to believe the former Ohio State star will be the team’s No. 1 wide receiver before the 2023 season is over.
Yet, Metcalf’s ADP is 32 picks higher than Lockett’s and 57 picks higher than Smith-Njigba’s. Unfortunately, the star wide receiver isn’t efficient with his targets. Last season he averaged only 1.29 fantasy points per target, down 19.4% from the year before. Furthermore, Metcalf averaged only 2.6 yards after the catch per reception, a career low. He also averaged only 1.88 yards per route run, the lowest average in his career since his rookie season. More importantly, no Seahawk besides Lockett has had more than 63 targets any year since the team drafted Metcalf in 2019. That will change this season. Avoid drafting the veteran wide receiver anywhere near his third-round ADP.
Deebo Samuel (WR – SF): ADP 39.7 | WR16
I have never been a fan of the veteran wide receiver. Samuel had a massive year in 2021, and fantasy players continue to chase after what was a fluke season. The former South Carolina star averaged 18.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game that year. However, the veteran averaged only 13.5 fantasy points per game, removing his rushing production. More importantly, Samuel has struggled with injuries in his career, missing nearly 25% of the contests. Unfortunately, the arrival of Christian McCaffrey crushed the veteran wide receiver’s fantasy value.
Samuel was the WR10, averaging 12.9 fantasy points per game before the 49ers acquired McCaffrey. By comparison, he was the WR59, averaging nine fantasy points per game once the team added the superstar running back. Furthermore, the veteran wide receiver averaged 18.2 yards per reception and 1.79 fantasy points per target in 2021. The following year he averaged a career-low 11.3 yards per reception and 1.06 fantasy points per target. I don’t care how many shirtless pictures he sends Kyle Shanahan. Samuel is vastly overrated as the 16th wide receiver off the board.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
- Making the Case for RB1
- Post-Hype Sleepers
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.