Here are a few of the players I’m avoiding in 2023 fantasy football drafts. Upgrade to our premium subscription to view my full list of 2023 players to avoid.
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- Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
Fantasy Football Draft Players to Avoid
Marquise Brown (WR – ARI)
Beware when the sales pitch for a player begins with, “Who else are they gonna throw to?” The alpha receiver for a lousy team isn’t automatically going to be a valuable fantasy asset simply because he’s the alpha.
Interest in “Hollywood” spiked when the Cardinals released DeAndre Hopkins. It will be noted repeatedly this summer that Brown was the WR5 in PPR fantasy scoring through the first six weeks of the 2022 season while Hopkins was serving a performance-enhancing drug (PED) suspension. It should be noted, however, that only one of those six games came against a good pass defense. Give Hollywood credit for hanging an 8-78-1 stat line against an Eagles defense that ranked No. 1 in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) against the pass last season, according to Football Outsiders. But the other five teams Brown faced during that stretch ranked 17th, 20th, 24th, 27th and 31st in DVOA against the pass.
Brown has finished with fewer than 800 yards in three of his four seasons. His 1,008-yard campaign in 2021 was the only time he’s averaged better than 60 receiving yards per game over a season. Brown has averaged an uninspiring 7.2 yards per target and 1.67 yards per route run for his career.
It’s unclear when Cardinals QB Kyler Murray will be able to return to action after tearing his ACL in December. There’s little reason for the Cardinals to rush him back since they appear fully committed to a rebuild. While Murray is out, the Cardinals will be quarterbacked by journeyman Colt McCoy (who may have injury issues of his own) or rookie Clayton Tune.
Bad teams produce unstable assets. The Arizona Cardinals are going to be a five-alarm fire this season. Maybe we shouldn’t be so eager to run into the burning building.
George Pickens (WR – PIT)
Pickens made some splashy plays as a rookie. He’s an acrobat on contested catches, a darling of the highlight reels. He averaged 9.5 yards per target last season, which is a really good number. Undoubtedly you sense there’s a “but” coming. (You’re not wrong.)
Pickens’ inability to earn targets last year is concerning. He had a 15.3% target share as a rookie. Pickens didn’t have more than eight targets in any game all season. He didn’t have more than six targets in any game from Week 6 on.
Pickens was near the bottom of the wide receiver rankings in separation last year, according to Next Gen Stats. He only averaged 2.0 yards after the catch, which was also near the bottom of the WR rankings.
The contested catches are fun, but when you’re making a lot of contested catches, it’s a symptom of not getting a lot of separation with your routes. That appears to be the case with Pickens.
Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF)
The Bills haven’t been especially forthcoming about how they plan to use their first-round draft pick. Will he displace incumbent Dawson Knox as the Bills’ primary tight end? Will the Bills play more two-TE sets and have Kincaid line up in the slot, partially displacing slot receivers Khalil Shakir and Deonte Harty?
Role ambiguity alone might not be a good reason to fade Kincaid, but we know that rookie TEs historically haven’t been great bets for fantasy. Of the 25 tight ends taken in the first round of the NFL Draft since 2000, only four — Kyle Pitts, Evan Engram, Heath Miller and Jeremy Shockey — were fantasy TE1s as rookies.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
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