In fantasy football, there’s nothing worse than putting your faith into a player who lets you down. Their failure to live up to your expectations ends up costing you a higher draft choice.
This is what we refer to as a bust.
Quarterback is a bit more forgiving, depending on the size of your league and the number of roster spots. But still, no one wants a bust on their team, regardless of the position.
Here, we’ll look at three quarterbacks with an average draft position of QB12 or higher, according to FantasyPros ADP, who have a chance to bust on you.
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3 Quarterback Busts to Avoid
Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE)
Following the tumultuous (to say the least) years of the Deshaun Watson saga — which included leaving the Houston Texans, signing with the Cleveland Browns, and getting suspended — this will be the first full season Watson will play in a while. And Watson enters draft season as the QB9, being drafted 82nd overall.
After coming back in Week 13 last year against the Texans (of course, right?), Watson was not a good quarterback in real life or for fantasy.
From Week 13 on, Watson finished as the QB14 with 1,102 passing yards, seven touchdowns and five interceptions, while completing fewer than 60% of his passes.
Watson will once again have wide receivers Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones, as well as the newly-acquired Elijah Moore and rookie Cedric Tillman. The Browns lost running back Kareem Hunt, meaning there are fewer mouths to feed in the backfield, which should help Watson’s passing attempts.
The problem with drafting Watson this high is everything we’ve seen has been less than stellar since he returned to action. Granted, he’ll have an entire offseason and got his feet wet at the end of the 2022 campaign. But it’s still hard to trust him as a top-10 quarterback.
If his ADP were around QB14 (his finish from last year), it would be more appetizing. But at 82nd overall with players like George Pickens, Diontae Johnson, Mike Evans and Jaxon Smith-Njigba available, I’d opt for them instead.
Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)
Before everyone gets mad, give me a second to explain.
Jackson is going as the QB5 after coming off a season in which he didn’t play after Week 13. During the time he did play last year, he was the QB6 averaging 20.3 points per game, which was 8th in the league.
Jackson’s injuries the past two seasons are concerning. So, if you pay the QB5 price tag, he could live up to that when he plays, but can we trust that he won’t get injured again? Nothing is more important in fantasy football than availability, and Jackson hasn’t proven it recently.
Also, his rushing ability is his biggest selling point. We don’t know how the injuries will play into how much he runs the ball. But we do know that new offensive coordinator Todd Monken will want to throw more, which could limit his upside on the ground.
Dak Prescott (QB – DAL)
The Cowboys added Brandin Cooks in the offseason to go along with CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup, but there’s still some pause when it comes to Prescott.
Going as the QB10, Prescott had 15 interceptions last year, but he had 18 turnover-worthy plays, according to Pro Football Focus. Prescott also missed significant time at the beginning of last season.
Since coming back in Week 7, Prescott was the QB6 and averaged 18.9 fantasy points per game.
However, this was when the Cowboys had Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator. Over the offseason, we’ve heard head coach Mike McCarthy state he wants to run the ball more often.
An emphasis on the ground game could limit Prescott’s upside this season. QB10 isn’t a terrible spot, but you can do better with more upside later.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
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