Our analysts have put together fantasy football outlooks for all fantasy-relevant players. You can find them on our player pages and via our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). These will be updated throughout the preseason to help you navigate your fantasy football drafts utilizing our bevy of tools, including our FREE draft simulator and cheat sheet creator. We’ll cover players in different groups to help you identify those to target and others to avoid. Let’s take a look at dead zone running backs to avoid drafting.
The Running Back Dead Zone is generally referred to as rounds 3-6, which historically speaking has been an area in drafts where running backs have performed poorly compared to wide receivers drafted in a similar range. As the wider public has become more aware of the Dead Zone in the last two years it has led to changes in the players we see there.
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Fantasy Football Wide Receivers to Target in the RB Dead Zone
Andrew Erickson shares 2023 fantasy football dead zone running backs to avoid.
Alexander Mattison smashed in most games that Dalvin Cook missed from 2020-2021. The Vikings RB2 posted five games with at least 23 touches over that stretch, including two games with 32 touches when Cook was sidelined. He averaged 23.7 PPR points and 90 rushing yards per game in those contests. The problem in 2022, was that Mattison never got the opportunity to carve out a bell cow role because Cook stayed healthy for the entire season. Aside from the occasional goal-line touch, Mattison operated strictly as RB2 for Minnesota. And that hurt Mattison’s chances of boosting his stock in free agency as he settled in on returning to his old team on a 2-year, $7MM contract with $6.35MM guaranteed.
The 25-year-old running back was at least efficient in 2022 when he carried the ball, finishing with a career-high 84.2 PFF rushing grade which ranked 15th among 61 running backs with at least 70 carries in 2022.
And although, he’s never been a featured back for an entire season — the glimpses of him in a full-time role as a Viking shed some light on his potential upside should he ascend to RB1 status. Dalvin Cook has been released, suggesting the job is Mattison’s to lose. Currently, it’s Ty Chandler, DeWayne McBride and Kene Nwangwu behind him on the depth chart. Still, there are risks involved selecting Mattison high in 2023 as there’s a lot of projection with him as the team’s featured back for an entire season. That’s something he has never done. And drafting players simply on the situation tends to not work favorably in the long run.
Remember, nobody ever vied for Mattison to get touches over Cook over the last four weeks. He was always the inferior back. So although he’s no longer the most inferior back on the roster, that doesn’t mean he is back to get overly excited about for fantasy football.
2022 was another year of ultimate teasing by D’Andre Swift. The Lions running back came out of the gates red hot, but got hurt. And when he returned, the Lions refused to give him the featured role in the backfield, opting to use Jamaal Williams as their goal-line battering ram instead.
Swift was still uber-efficient on a per-touch basis – fourth in fantasy points per touch, third in yards per carry, 23rd in points per game and 19th in yards after contact per attempt – but the lack of touchdowns and overall touches was soul-crushing. Swift seemed to never be 100% healthy at any point during the year, which likely influenced his reduced role. And Detroit’s lack of willingness to get Swift involved was a sign of things to come as they would eventually trade him to the Philadelphia Eagles for a future Day 3 pick.
With a full bill of health heading into 2023, Swift will again be productive on a per-touch basis in his new offense. But be warned that his injury history and draft capital spent on Swift guarantees him nothing under a new coaching staff in Philadelphia. Fantasy managers should also be aware that Swift and fellow newcomer Rashaad Penny are both solid rushers, posting identical success rates last season.
Swift also won’t be used as often in the passing game, after the Eagles finished dead last in RB target share last season (12.1%) and total RB targets.
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