It all comes down to this. All of the offseason fantasy football draft prep. All of the mock drafts. All of the time you’ve spent preparing for your 2023 fantasy football drafts will come down to the next few weeks. Are you ready? As always, we’re here to help. Our analysts have put in the work to identify players they are avoiding in drafts that could sink your season before it even begins. You can find a few of their least favorite fantasy football draft picks below. And for all of their targets and avoids, check out our articles from each analyst.
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid
Aaron Rodgers (QB – NYJ)
He’s still a good quarterback, but Rodgers’ days of being a good fantasy quarterback are probably over.
Rodgers doesn’t run much anymore. He’s capable of being an efficient passer, but he’s unlikely to be a prolific passer; the Jets don’t need him to be one. Head coach Robert Saleh’s defense was one of the best in the league last year and should be again, which means Rodgers probably isn’t going to be involved in many shootouts this year. He’ll be more of a game manager than gunslinger.
The Jets’ new offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett, was the Packers’ OC for three seasons, from 2019 to 2021. During those three years, the Packers ranked 28th, 32nd and 32nd in offensive pace.
Rodgers is an adequate fantasy backup, but if you’re in a position where you have to start him week after week, you’re going to get consistently trucked at the position by teams with elite QBs.
-Pat Fitzmaurice
Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA)
There’s no ignoring the elephant in the room with Tua Tagovailoa’s injury risks heading into the 2023 season. He sustained multiple concussions last season, with him not fully clearing the concussion protocol until the end of January. And that was despite his last game being played on Christmas 2022. The Dolphins quarterback reportedly considered retirement this offseason, but ultimately, he plans on playing. Tagovailoa has tried to “bulk up” in the offseason to brace for additional hits, but only time will tell how long that will keep him upright. The Dolphins’ offensive line is below average – 20th-ranked per PFF – with their best offensive lineman, tackle Terron Armstead, often injured himself. Armstead recently suffered an injury during Miami’s training camp. Austin Jackson barely played last year after being placed on IR very early on. Guard Liam Eichenberg has struggled for two years as PFF’s fourth-lowest graded guard among 85 qualifiers. All three are projected starters. Not ideal.
And injuries aside, I am not convinced that Tagovailoa has the perceived elite fantasy upside you want to draft in this middle tier as the QB10. When he was healthy, and everything was going his way, he was averaging 19.8 fantasy points per game (QB7). But again, he offered zero value as a rusher. He totaled just six rushing yards per game (70 total yards in 12 games). And as the QB7…he was passing TDs at a 6.3 percent clip (nearly two TDs per game). That tied Patrick Mahomes for the highest TD rate in the league. And it’s a number that’s likely to regress over a larger sample size. Case in point, his 25 passing TDs were five TDs over expectation – the most among all passers in 2022.
If everything goes right for Tagovailoa, he’s a small win. That’s not enough for me to be a buyer, given his additional risk.
-Andrew Erickson
George Kittle (TE – SF)
George Kittle has been a highly regarded tight end in fantasy football, but there are reasons to believe that he may be overrated heading into the 2023 season.
Without looking it up…who do you think has played more games over the last three seasons? George Kittle or Darren Waller? Trick question. It’s the same. 37 regular season games played.
In 2022, Kittle had his lowest yards per route run since his rookie season. This indicates a potential decline in his effectiveness as a receiver and raises concerns about his ability to consistently produce at a high level.
Even with Brock Purdy as his quarterback, Kittle still trailed Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk in target share, ranking third in the pecking order (tied with Christian McCaffrey). Without Samuel healthy for four games, Kittle’s fantasy production nearly doubled, with 1.5 receiving TDs per game.
Kittle’s performance in 2022 was marked by inconsistency. He had six games with fewer than 40 receiving yards, with three of them occurring when Samuel was on the field. However, Kittle did have three games with over 90 receiving yards, mainly when Purdy was at quarterback and Samuel was absent. His 50 percent bust rate last season led all tight end scorers inside the top seven at the position. This volatility makes him a riskier option for fantasy managers.
Kittle owned an eighth-ranked 19 percent target share among all tight ends in 2022 and ranked 13th in target rate per route run at 22 percent. While these numbers are solid, they don’t necessarily place him in the upper echelon of fantasy tight ends.
Kittle significantly outperformed his expected touchdown total, finishing with 11 touchdowns compared to an expected total of 6.2. This suggests that he may experience a regression in touchdown production in 2023, which could have a negative impact on his fantasy output.
Considering these factors, it’s reasonable to argue that Kittle is overvalued as the TE4, being drafted around the 57th overall pick. His declining yards per route run, inconsistent performances, and the likelihood of touchdown regression make him a riskier option compared to other tight ends available later in the draft.
In Kittle’s draft range, I prefer Kyle Pitts, Cam Akers, James Conner, Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson, and Brandon Aiyuk. Kittle is still being drafted 49th in redraft ADP (61st in best ball ADP).
-Andrew Erickson
More Fantasy Football Draft Advice from our Analysts
Positional Primers
- Fitz’s Quarterback Primer
- Fitz’s Running Back Primer
- Fitz’s Wide Receiver Primer
- Fitz’s Tight End Primer
Perfect Drafts
Fantasy Draft Cheat Sheets
- Fitz’s Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
- Erickson’s Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
- DBro’s Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
Round-By-Round Draft Strategy
- DBro’s How to Approach Early Rounds
- DBro’s How to Approach Middle Rounds
- DBro’s How to Approach Late Rounds
- Erickson’s Strategy for Early Snake Draft Picks
- Erickson’s Strategy for Middle Snake Draft Picks
- Erickson’s Strategy for Late Snake Draft Picks
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