Break out the sunscreen, a fan, and a tank top. The temperatures have reached scorching levels, which can mean only one thing outside of the fact that I’m safe inside with my spreadsheets, AC, and best ball drafts. Fantasy football season is quickly approaching, and now is the time to start prepping for your leagues. Don’t worry. I’ve been grinding all offseason and have prepared a list of the players I’ll be avoiding like the plague. And below you’ll find a few free picks to help you prepare. Let’s have a great season.
- More Fantasy Football Advice
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
Derek Brown’s Players to Avoid
Here are a few of my players to avoid in 2023 fantasy football.
Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN)
Could Alexander Mattison be the Vikings’ new workhorse? Possibly, but his profile more closely resembles a dead zone back to avoid. Mattison has been increasingly inefficient early in his NFL career. His yards after contact per attempt have dropped in the last four seasons, while his yards per route run has dipped over the last three years. Last season he only managed one run of 15-plus yards with his 74 carries. The other running backs on the Vikings’ depth chart might not be household names, but Ty Chandler, DeWayne McBride, and Kene Nwangwu are all talented players who could carve into Mattison’s volume in 2023.
Rachaad White (RB – TB)
Everyone drafting Rachaad White looks at him as a locked-in volume back in Tampa Bay, but we need to pump the brakes. White is a middling talent that the addition of a dusty veteran like Ezekiel Elliott or Kareem Hunt could sink. Even if the team doesn’t sign one of those players, it’s possible Sean Tucker or Ke’Shawn Vaughn could steal work from White. Yes, I just said Ke’Shawn Vaughn. Yes, that Ke’Shawn Vaughn. While Vaughn has never lived up to the hype built before his rookie season, he has been impressively efficient. We get some interesting results if we compare Vaughn’s career efficiency marks against every back with at least 100 carries last year. Vaughn would have ranked ninth in yards after contact per attempt, 18th in breakaway percentage, and 16th in elusive rating. Stacking up White against the same sample of backs yields disappointing results. Among 45 qualifying rushers, White ranked 44th in yards after contact per attempt, 32nd in breakaway run rate, and 37th in elusive rating. If you’re waiting for White’s pass-game skills to save him, you could be waiting awhile. Among 61 running backs last year with at least 20 targets, White was 24th in yards per route run and 40th in YAC per reception. White is another replacement-level talent that could lose work as the season rolls along.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, Football Outsiders, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*