Fantasy Football Busts: Khalil Herbert, AJ Dillon, T.J. Hockenson (2023)

Several factors go into building a winning best-ball team. One of those factors is identifying which players will let your team down and bust. Another is knowing which players have league-winning upside, especially in the later rounds. To help you build an elite best ball roster, I will identify the most likely bust candidate and potential league winner for every NFL team.

Today I break down the NFC North teams: the Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, and Minnesota Vikings.

The ADP used for this article comes from Underdog Fantasy.

AFC Busts & League Winners: East | North | South | West
NFC Busts & League Winners: East
Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator

Fantasy Football Busts: NFC North

Potential Bust Candidates

Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI): ADP 118.8 | RB40

When David Montgomery left this offseason, Herbert’s fantasy value skyrocketed until the team signed D’Onta Foreman. Even with the veteran added to the roster, Herbert was still the No. 1 running back on the depth. The former Virginia Tech star has played five career games without Montgomery, averaging 21.4 touches for 95.4 scrimmage yards and 12 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest. However, his fantasy value took a hit after the Bears drafted Roschon Johnson. The rookie has been the talk of the offseason in Chicago. While Herbert still could win the starting role, fantasy players should draft Foreman or Johnson instead, thanks to their later ADP.

AJ Dillon (RB – GB): ADP 102.2 | RB34

Many had high hopes for Dillon this year, as the fantasy community expected the Packers to release Aaron Jones this offseason. However, the veteran running back will return in 2023, limiting Dillon’s upside as the No. 2 guy. Last year the former Boston College star had seven rushing touchdowns, a career-high. Yet, he averaged fewer fantasy points per game than in 2021. Furthermore, only 8.1% of Dillon’s rushing attempts went for 10 or more yards last season. More importantly, the Packers improved their weapons in the offseason, spending three Day 2 picks on pass catchers. Samaje Perine and De’Von Achane have a later ADP than Dillon. Yet, I’ll take both over the former Boston College star.

T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN): ADP 51.4 | TE3

Last year Hockenson had the best fantasy finish of his career, ending the season as the TE2. The veteran had 86 receptions on 129 targets for 914 receiving yards and six touchdowns, all career highs. He also averaged 10.1 half-point PPR antsy points per game, the highest average of his career. However, Hockenson scored over 9.4 fantasy in only 30% of the 10 games with the Vikings last season. More importantly, the team added Jordan Addison this offseason. The rookie will have more of a role than Adam Thielen did last year. There is no reason why fantasy players should draft Hockenson ahead of George Kittle (ADP 61.1) and Kyle Pitts (68.7).