Only so many players are drafted in fantasy leagues, leaving some intriguing options to slip through the cracks. In 12-team leagues that use one quarterback, two running backs, three receivers, one tight end, one flex, one kicker, one defense and five bench spots, 180 players are selected. If every team chooses a defense and a kicker, 156 non-kickers and defenses are picked.
So, to qualify for this piece, a player has to have an average draft position (ADP) of 156 or later in half-PPR formats. And since I suggest passing on kickers and defenses in drafts that aren’t held during the week of Week 1, no kickers or defenses are included. The following players will flesh out an entire starting fantasy football roster.
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
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- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
All Undrafted Team
Quarterback
Sam Howell (WAS): 199.5 ADP, QB30/223 ECR, QB27
Howell played reasonably well in Washington’s first preseason game, finishing his action with a touchdown strike to Jahan Dotson on the team’s third drive. Thus, Howell’s done nothing to jeopardize his standing atop Washington’s depth chart.
The second-year quarterback has a talented trio of wideouts to help elevate his play. In addition, Howell’s a rushing threat. As I previously noted when touting Howell, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Howell’s 1,106 rushing yards for the University of North Carolina in 2021 were the 10th most among FBS quarterbacks since 2018.
Howell’s combination of passing and rushing upside makes him the rare worthwhile quarterback to stash as a backup. Furthermore, the sophomore signal-caller’s stock could skyrocket after Week 1’s cushy matchup against the Cardinals. Per Betting Pros, the Commanders are 6.0-point favorites, and the game’s total is 38.5 points, leaving Washington with a reasonable implied total of 22.25 points. If Howell smashes in Week 1, he’ll be the cover boy of many waiver-wire articles.
Running Backs
Tank Bigsby (JAC): 156.7 ADP, RB49/147 ECR, RB51
Preseason performances should be taken with a grain of salt. Yet, in Jacksonville’s first preseason game this season, Bigsby had nine carries for 52 yards. However, more importantly, he had a carry on third and one with the team’s starters, a potential indication that head coach Doug Pederson trusts Bigsby already.
Sadly, Bigsby didn’t convert the third-down attempt. Still, short-yardage failure wasn’t a rare occurrence for incumbent starter Travis Etienne in 2022. According to our red zone stats, Etienne had 13 carries inside the five-yard line and produced only 10 yards and three touchdowns last season. The team also struggled on short-yardage conversions on designed runs last year, as Nate Tice pointed out.
and not just the redzone, the Jaguars ranked 31st in short yardage conversion rate on designed runs to RBs.
– Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) August 10, 2023
Etienne should get the first crack at work in all facets of the game and all areas on the field. Still, his leash might be shorter after the team chose Bigsby in the third round of this year’s NFL Draft. At worst, Bigsby is a handcuff bench stash. But, even on the short side of a committee, Bigsby can have standalone value during bye weeks if he’s getting some work between the 20s and most goal-line opportunities.
Jaylen Warren (PIT): 159.0 ADP, RB50/139 ECR, RB47
Putting a chip on Warren is a two-factor decision. First, Najee Harris has the low-efficiency, entirely volume-driven profile gamers should bet against. Second, Warren was explosive and efficient as a rookie last year. The following table has a rushing statistical comparison, with stats courtesy of PFF, of Harris’s career stats in two years of data and Warren’s rookie season’s work.
Warren's rushing efficiency could take a slight hit if he toted the rock more. Nevertheless, he's not merely an undersized satellite back. Instead, Warren is short (5-foot-8) but weighs 215 pounds. Per PFF, he was also fed the rock 237 times in his final college season at Oklahoma State and converted his carries into 1,134 rushing yards, 4.8 yards per attempt, 3.14 Yards After Contact per Attempt (YCO/A), 77 missed tackles forced (MTF) and 11 rushing touchdowns.
Warren also commanded targets on a higher percentage of his routes and had more Yards per Route Run (Y/RR) than Harris last year, as shown in the following table.
Harris is unlikely to be completely phased out for Warren. But Warren's been the superior running back to this point in their young careers and could make this a true committee while possessing contingent value as a high-upside handcuff.
Wide Receivers
Nico Collins (HOU): 166.7 ADP, WR59/119 ECR, WR52
I wrote about Collins as an undervalued player to draft in early June, and Collins is still a worthy dart throw. Instead of regurgitating the same talking points here, readers are encouraged to check out the linked piece. And even with Tank Dell shining in Houston's first preseason contest, Collins's role as a starter is likely secure.
Jayden Reed (GB): 218.5 ADP, WR78/188 ECR, WR77
Reed played with Green Bay's starters in their preseason opener. That's an excellent starting point for his 2023 outlook. According to PFF, the rookie receiver played nine passing snaps, ran eight routes and had two targets, two receptions and 20 receiving yards in his professional debut. Reed aligned in the slot for eight of those snaps and once inline.
Thus, Reed is a good bet to be on the field in three-wideout sets for the Packers. The key to Reed's fantasy value ascending this year will be remaining on the field in two-wideout sets or Green Bay increasing their three-wideout personnel use this year.
Fortunately, Reed showed he could play on the perimeter in college. Green Bay's second-round investment in Reed is also encouraging. Comparatively, the team used a fourth-round pick in 2022 to pop Romeo Doubs, who had an underwhelming rookie campaign. Gamers shouldn't thrust Reed into their lineup out of the gate. But the rookie is an exciting stash with a few paths to fantasy utility.
Isaiah Hodgins (NYG): 216.0 ADP, WR78/158 ECR, WR65
Hodgins is a big-bodied perimeter wideout on a team featuring many diminutive slot wide receivers. He was also on the same page with Daniel Jones down the stretch, which could give him a leg up on the new faces in Big Blue's receiving corps.
Hodgins played his first game for the Giants in Week 10 last year. He immediately carved out a modest role on the team before eclipsing 30 routes for the first time in Week 13. Like all of New York's players, he was nearly non-existent in their Divisional Round loss.
However, Hodgins shined in six games from Week 13 through the Wild Card Round (he, Jones and most of New York's other offensive starters rested in Week 18). During that six-game sample, Hodgins ran 224 routes and had 40 targets, 33 receptions, 355 receiving yards, 1.58 Y/RR and five touchdowns. It should be clear early in the season if Hodgins still has a critical role in New York's revamped pass-catching corps. Hodgins is a valuable bench option if he's a mainstay on the field for Big Blue and an easy cut for the hot waiver wire player after Week 1 if the Giants use a heavy rotation at wide receiver.
Tight End
Sam LaPorta (DET): 162.3 ADP, TE17/168 ECR, TE20
LaPorta is an athletic dreamboat.
Sam LaPorta was drafted with pick 34 of round 2 in the 2023 draft class. He scored a 9.01 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 110 out of 1105 TE from 1987 to 2023. https://t.co/yEXOZgqATo pic.twitter.com/aOCJWeJDA6
- Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) April 28, 2023
Thankfully, he's not just a workout warrior. LaPorta was productive in college, despite playing in a dreadful offense. In 26 games in his final two seasons at Iowa, LaPorta had 171 targets, 111 receptions, 1,318 receiving yards, 11.9 yards per reception, 2.06 Y/RR and four touchdowns. Moreover, he accounted for 30.2% of Iowa's receptions, 31.9% of their receiving yards and had a 25.8% target share in 2022.
The Lions thought highly enough of LaPorta's work to make him the second tight end drafted this year, picking him 34th overall. Detroit desperately needs players to step up as secondary, tertiary and ancillary pass-catching options behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, and LaPorta could push for the second fiddle.
And LaPorta doesn't have a pesky established veteran to contend with for playing time at tight end. LaPorta's clear path to the field is ideal for his fantasy outlook, as playing time is frequently the hurdle that prevents rookie tight ends from posting top-12 numbers. Dwain McFarland shared an encouraging nugget of info about route participation for rookie tight ends and their fantasy finishes.
Rookie TEs that earned targets in college often display the same traits in Year 1.
Why don't they succeed? Playing time.
Last 2 rookies to reach 75% route participation:
Kyle Pitts 80%
Evan Engram 77%Both top 12.
Sam LaPorta clear No. 1 on a thin Lion's depth chart.
- Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) August 4, 2023
Spending a late-round pick on LaPorta is a better allocation of draft resources than spending a top-100 pick on Evan Engram (82.7 ADP), Pat Freiermuth (86.7) or David Njoku (96.7). And if LaPorta fails, streaming is an acceptable fallback.
Flex
Puka Nacua (LAR): 284.0 ADP, WR93/315 ECR, WR108
Nacua played nine games for BYU in his final college season and made the most of them. Among 86 FBS wideouts from this year's NFL Draft class targeted at least 60 times in 2022, Nacua was fifth in Yards After the Catch per Reception (8.0 YAC/REC), second in Yards per Route Run (3.53 Y/RR) and first in PFF's receiving grade.
He fell to the Rams in the fifth round but is already making a good impression on head coach Sean McVay.
Sean McVay says he's a "huge fan" of Puka Nacua.
- Jourdan Rodrigue (@JourdanRodrigue) August 13, 2023
Nacua wasted no time producing in a game, albeit in a preseason contest. He had five targets, three receptions and the following touchdown grab against the Chargers in his first preseason action.
GET TO KNOW THE NAME...
Puka. Nacua. pic.twitter.com/wBkmI2LooF
- Derek Brown (aka Ugly John Daigle) (@DBro_FFB) August 13, 2023
And based on the use of LA's receivers not named Cooper Kupp and Van Jefferson, the No. 3 job appears to be up for grabs.
Stetson Bennett started for Rams.
As did Ronnie Rivers at RB. Likely confirms Kyren Williams as RB2 to Cam Akers.
Puka Nacua, Demarcus Robinson and Ben Skowronek started at WR. 37.5% target rate for Nacua.
The fact that they are all playing means that WR3 is still up for grabs
- Andrew Erickson(TM) (@AndrewErickson_) August 13, 2023
Additionally, offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur and Matthew Stafford thought Nacua "settled in" during his first professional game.
Rams OC Mike LaFleur on WR Puka Nacua's performance vs. Chargers:
"It's like any rookie, as comfortable as they might be, that's their first game. And I thought, just within a series or two, Matthew (Stafford) and I were talking about it today, just how much he settled in."
- Stu Jackson (@StuJRams) August 14, 2023
Kupp is a target hog for the Rams. But there's not an impressive collection of talent behind him. And if Nacua wins the No. 3 wideout job, he should be on the field often. According to nfelo app, the Rams used 11-personnel (one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers) on first down at the highest rate (90%) in 2022, eight percent more than the second-highest mark. The Rams also led the way in 2021, using 11-personnel on first down 84% of the time, 15% more than the second-highest rate. Nacua might go the way of most day-three rookies and take time to develop or fail to become a fantasy football asset at all. Still, it doesn't take a vivid imagination for him to get a chance to prove himself immediately on the Rams' barren wide receiver depth chart, and getting an opportunity is half the battle.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
