This weekly waiver-wire watch column is designed to help you monitor and pick up players in the coming weeks. These are the players you’ll want to add now before becoming the hot waiver commodity in a week or two. Using underlying and advanced metrics, this “watchlist” will help you get ahead of the competition in your league and reap the rewards from your pickups later.
The players could be anyone from a prospect in an ideal situation close to the Majors, a reliever in a saves+holds league or even a starter doing well with misleading surface-level stats like ERA. They might even be hitters with quality underlying stats. Or they could be none of those types of players and entirely different.
The point is that they’ll help you find success in your fantasy league while staying ahead of the curve against your league mates.
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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Watch List
A.J. Puk (RP – MIA)
It’s possible that, following the Marlins acquiring David Robertson prior to the trade deadline, the manager in your league dropped A.J. Puk.
After all, Robertson logged a 2.05 ERA, a 3.58 FIP, 14 saves and 48 strikeouts (compared to 13 walks) in 40 appearances spanning 44 innings for the New York Mets before the deal. And, it’s worth noting, Puk had surrendered 14 hits, 12 runs, 11 earned runs, four home runs and four walks in 7.2 innings of work from July 5 through July 30. If you’re counting along at home, that checks out as a 12.91 ERA and a 7.44 FIP during that span.
Not good.
But as can often be the case with relievers, a poor stretch can mar their season-long ERA. That said, those poor stretches can also often get closers removed from ninth-inning roles, even if their underlying metrics are good.
This is very much the case with Puk’s underlying metrics. The reliever is sporting a 4.75 ERA and a 3.46 FIP in 36 innings this season. He’s also struck out 49 batters in 36 innings so far, with a 30.8% strikeout rate that ranks in the 91st percentile league-wide.
What’s more, The 28-year-old has been rather efficient with walks. He’s allowed eight free passes all year, good for a 5.0% walk rate that also coincidentally ranks in the 91st percentile league-wide.
And when batters have made contact, they haven’t been able to do much with it. Opposing hitters have managed just a .276 xwOBA (88th percentile), a .378 xwOBAcon, a 33.7% hard-hit rate (82nd percentile) and a 6.9% barrel rate (67th percentile) against Puk.
More recently, he’s also allowed just one hit in his last three outings, striking out four of the eight batters he’s faced during that span.
Speaking of recent outings, Robertson has struggled mightily.
After throwing a clean inning and picking up the save in his first outing with the Marlins, the veteran has faced 10 batters in his last two innings, giving up three hits, five runs, four earned runs, two home runs and a walk while striking out a pair. It’s a small sample size, but it’s something to monitor moving forward for a team in the playoff hunt like the Marlins, who can ill afford to rack up blown saves with regularity.
All of this is to say that Puk is someone to watch in terms of potentially seeing save chances again in the future. Of course, that’s all entirely speculative, but if Robertson continues to struggle in a Marlins uniform and manager Skip Schumaker looks elsewhere, Puk would seem like a logical choice.
If he was dropped in your league and you have some roster flexibility – or simply have another reliever in a closing time-share like Wandy Peralta or Erik Swanson, dropping them for Puk now might be the prudent move.
Masyn Winn (SS – STL)
What has long been a timeshare of sorts at shortstop for the St. Louis Cardinals might not be one for much longer.
In 2021, the playing time at the position was split almost down the middle between Paul DeJong and Edmundo Sosa. Last season, it was Tommy Edman, DeJong and Sosa seeing significant time at shortstop.
This year, partly due to Sosa’s trade last season to Philadelphia, it’s largely been DeJong and Edman.
Now, with DeJong in Toronto following a trade deadline deal, it’s mainly been Edman playing shortstop in the interim. However, Edman has regularly moved around the field for the Cardinals. Just this year, he’s seen significant time at second base, as well as in center field (with some additional time spent in right field) for the NL Central club.
This is all to say that the path may be cleared for Masyn Winn to eventually take over as the St. Louis Cardinals’ starting shortstop down the stretch run – a potential move that would have significant implications for both the Cardinals’ future and for fantasy managers heading towards the playoffs.
Now, it obviously remains to be seen just when Winn will debut in the Majors, but he has all the makings of an impact fantasy player, even if it’s just for a handful of weeks this season.
His current and future grades, per FanGraphs, are as follows:
- Hit: 40/55
- Game Power: 30/40
- Raw Power: 45/50
- Speed: 60/60
Winn is also getting to the point where there isn’t really much left for him to prove in Triple-A. In 476 plate appearances with St. Louis’ top Minor League affiliate, the 21-year-old is batting .284 with a .355 on-base percentage, a .363 wOBA, 17 home runs and 17 stolen bases. And while his 103 wRC+ isn’t tremendously high, the infielder has cut his strikeout rate to a career-low 16.4% against improved competition while also walking 8.6% of the time.
What’s more is that while the Cardinals traded away veterans at the deadline, DeJong among them, the team still has an offensive nucleus, including the likes of Paul Goldschmidt (.376 xwOBA, .821 OPS), Nolan Arenado (125 wRC+, .833 OPS), Lars Nootbaar (.376 on-base percentage, .358 xwOBA), Nolan Gorman (.371 xwOBA, .260 ISO) and Willson Contreras (.347 on-base percentage, .363 xwOBA). Getting regular starts and plate appearances after some combination of that group certainly won’t hurt Winn’s fantasy upside. In fact, it should boost it considerably.
Dynasty Addition/Trade Target of the Week
Edgar Quero (C – CWS)
One of the Angels’ top prospects entering the season – and currently FanGraphs’ 61st-best prospect in the sport – Edgar Quero, might have been a bit blocked in Los Angeles, with Logan O’Hoppe seemingly locked in as the catcher of the present and (foreseeable) future for the Halos.
The Angels also have Max Stassi under contract, and Matt Thaiss has provided solid production while both O’Hoppe and Stassi have been on the injured list this season.
In short, there was a lot of competition for Quero to get plate appearances now and, later – competition that could’ve hindered his very promising fantasy upside.
The 20-year-old is already at Double-A this season, where he’s continued his career trend of getting on base a ton. Quero owns a .411 career on-base percentage in 1,028 lifetime Minor League plate appearances, thanks largely to an ability to draw walks at a high rate.
Edgar Quero Walk Rate By Minor League Level:
- Complex League: 116 plate appearances, 19.8% walk rate (2021)
- Single-A: 42 plate appearances, 11.9% walk rate (2021)
- Single-A: 515 plate appearances, 14.2% walk rate (2022)
- Double-A: 321 plate appearances, 17.1% walk rate (2023, Angels affiliate)
- Double-A: 36 plate appearances, 2.8% walk rate (2023, White Sox affiliate)
With a future grade of 50 hit-tool-wise, per FanGraphs, Quero has all the potential to be an above-average fantasy catcher moving forward. He’s now part of a White Sox organization (via the Lucas Giolito trade), where things aren’t quite as crowded at his position.
Chicago did acquire Korey Lee in another trade deadline deal – for reliever Kendall Graveman – but that’s about it regarding long-term obstacles to Quero’s potential playing time down the line in Chicago.
Yasmani Grandal, according to Spotrac, is a free agent after the season. Elsewhere, Seby Zavala looks more like a glove-first backup behind the dish, what with a 32 wRC+ and a 10.2 Def in 66 games and 175 plate appearances so far this season.
Quero hit .246 with a .386 on-base percentage, three home runs, a stolen base and a 103 wRC+ in 321 plate appearances with Los Angeles’ Double-A affiliate before the trade. That was against competition that was, on average, 3.7 years older than him, no less. This is all entirely speculative, but at this rate, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Quero knocking on the door of the Majors sometime during next season, where he could make a similar in-season impact to current rookies like Miguel Amaya, Bo Naylor and Freddy Fermin.
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