This weekly waiver-wire watch column is designed to help you monitor and pick up players in the coming weeks. These are the players you’ll want to add now before becoming the hot waiver commodity in a week or two. Using underlying and advanced metrics, this “watchlist” will help you get ahead of the competition in your league and reap the rewards from your pickups later.
The players could be anyone from a prospect in an ideal situation close to the Majors, a reliever in a saves+holds league, or even a starter doing well with misleading surface-level stats like ERA. They might even be hitters with quality underlying stats. Or they could be none of those types of players and entirely different.
The point is that they’ll help you find success in your fantasy league while staying ahead of the curve against your league mates.
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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Watch List
Vaughn Grissom (2B – ATL)
Atlanta’s decision to go with Orlando Arcia as the team’s starting shortstop has seemingly paid off both from a real-life baseball and fantasy baseball standpoint.
Arcia owns a 2.5 fWAR so far and is batting .298 in 316 plate appearances this season, with a .351 on-base percentage, 10 home runs, and a stolen base as well.
And while it remains to be seen if Atlanta would even consider trading Vaughn Grissom, he does stand out as a speculative trade option if Atlanta is looking to make a big move considering how well Arcia has played. Of course, that’s again all entirely speculative, but if Grissom found his way to a team without a starter at either middle infield position, he’d be a must-add in almost all fantasy formats.
The 22-year-old showed well in his first Major League season in 2022, batting .291 with a .353 on-base percentage, a 121 wRC+, five home runs and five stolen bases in 156 plate appearances. Due to the team’s decision to go with Arcia at shortstop, Grissom has been limited to 70 Major League plate appearances in 2023.
He hasn’t been quite as productive, hitting .277 with a .314 on-base percentage – but it’s a rather small, 70-plate appearance sample size. He’s been much more productive in Triple-A, logging numbers that are much more in line with his 2022 production in the Majors. Grissom is batting .318 with a .395 on-base percentage, a 118 wRC+, four home runs, and 11 stolen bases in 351 Triple-A plate appearances.
Eligible at both shortstop and second base in Yahoo leagues, the 22-year-old would be an automatic starter at second base in fantasy leagues with 12 or more teams in the event of a real-life trade. Depending on roster constructions, he could be a quality starter at second base in 10-team leagues. In those leagues, he’d, at worst, be a quality bench option.
Drew Smith (RP – NYM)
As of Monday, the New York Mets had already traded away David Robertson, Max Scherzer and Mark Canha.
If the National League East club continues to trade away veterans, especially relievers like Adam Ottavino and Brooks Raley, Smith would be well-positioned to step into the ninth-inning role for New York for the rest of the season.
So far in 2023, only four relievers have combined for the Mets’ 25 saves. Robertson contributed 14 of those saves, while Ottavino and Raley combined for nine.
The other two belong to Smith.
In fact, save for one appearance by Jimmy Yacabonis, no other Mets reliever this year besides the aforementioned quartet has logged a high-leverage ninth-inning appearance.
Smith’s ERA has risen for the third-straight season to 4.04, yet his FIP (4.26) is lower than it was in each of the last two years. He’s also striking out 10.09 batters per nine frames compared to 4.29 walks and 1.01 home runs allowed per nine frames.
And while those numbers could obviously be a bit better, the right-hander is clearly a key option in a Mets bullpen that has been short of quality relievers at times this year.
Dynasty Addition/Trade Target of the Week
Max Scherzer (SP – NYM)
Speaking of Scherzer, he makes for an ideal dynasty trade target at the moment.
The veteran hasn’t quite been as effective this season as he was in seasons past. In 107.2 innings spread over 19 starts, the 39-year-old has pitched to a 4.01 ERA and a 4.73 FIP while striking out 10.11 batters per nine innings and giving up 2.51 walks and 1.92 home runs per nine frames. The home runs, in particular, have been a problem for Scherzer. However, he still sits in the 64th percentile or better in chase rate (29.8%, 64th), whiff rate (28.1%, 65th percentile), xwOBA (.298, 68th percentile), walk rate (6.8%, 72nd percentile), strikeout rate (27.3%, 75th percentile) and xBA (.216, 80th percentile).
He’s probably a bit better than his surface-level metrics would indicate, and a switch to Texas should only help Scherzer’s fantasy prospects this year.
Globe Life Field isn’t exactly the most pitcher-friendly venue. It’s currently sporting the league’s fourth-highest overall park factor per Statcast. Still, the Rangers’ elite group of fielders should only benefit Scherzer, especially considering the situation he was coming from in New York.
As of Monday, Texas sported the fourth-highest overall Def (18.1) in the sport. The Mets had the fifth-lowest. The Rangers also ranked in the top 10 in defensive runs saved (third at +32) and outs above average (fifth at +17), categories the Mets haven’t fared so well in.
New York fielders entered play Monday with a collective -14 DRS and a -10 OAA.
Given that he’s 39, fantasy managers probably won’t have to part with an overly significant return in a trade to acquire the veteran. And while he doesn’t have the long-term fantasy upside of a younger pitcher, it’s hard to find a starter with his ceiling down the stretch, making him the perfect short-term addition for dynasty managers looking to bolster their championship chances down the stretch and during the 2024 campaign.
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