Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Unlike other fantasy sports, the season is long and drags as the weeks roll on. However, because it is such a grind, fantasy managers can lose focus on what is important and what is not, allowing astute fantasy managers to take advantage.
When we are past the halfway point of the season, we are really beginning to see the trends and who might be underrated or overrated. However, hot streaks and cold streaks can scare your competition, and sometimes underlying numbers aren’t showing up on the surface numbers quite yet. If someone in your league is ready to overreact, then take advantage of their impatience.
Here are some players I would try to buy low and sell high on at this point in the season.
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Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice
Buy Low
Spencer Torkelson (1B – DET)
Spencer Torkelson has been up and down this season, hitting .228 with 18 home runs and two stolen bases. However, the underlying numbers have been much better than the surface stats. He has above-average zone contact and is hitting the ball very hard. His xBA is .260, and he could have a big end of the season with a bit of positive regression.
Gunnar Henderson (3B, SS, DH – BAL)
Gunnar Henderson has struggled off and on this season, hitting .235 with 19 home runs and six stolen bases. However, despite really nice underlying skills, he has been extremely unlucky in the second half. His BABIP in the second half is just .198 despite making very good in-zone contact and striking out just 18.6% of the time. There are still some struggles versus left-handed pitching, but I think Henserson should be better down the stretch and is someone I would seek in a trade.
Zach Eflin (SP, RP – TB)
Zach Eflin has struggled in the second half, throwing 30 innings for a 5.10 ERA and losing half of his games. However, he has been very unlucky, with a .322 BABIP and a 3.07 FIP. Eflin is still getting strikeouts and limiting home runs and walks, so there is no reason to think he won’t be a fantastic pitcher if someone is looking to unload him the rest of the way.
Brandon Pfaadt (SP – ARI)
Brandon Pfaadt has struggled in the Major Leagues, throwing 54.2 innings with a 6.91 ERA this year. However, he has looked much better as of late, and I think there is reason to believe he will be the pitcher we thought he could be coming into the season. Over his last four starts, he has limited home runs and walks while striking out a batter per inning. His 3.18 FIP over that time is very encouraging. I think this is the perfect buy-low for the stretch run.
Sell High
Zack Gelof (2B – OAK)
Zack Gelof has been hot since getting called up, hitting .281/.343/.635 with eight home runs and six stolen bases. However, he is getting pretty lucky on balls in play and striking out 28.6% of the time. The speed is legit, but his home run-to-flyball rate is extremely high. I would be surprised if he hits another five home runs the rest of the way. I also think the batting average probably drops to around .240-.250.
James Outman (OF – LAD)
James Outman has been extremely hot, then extremely cold, and now he is back to being extremely hot. So, what’s next? He is going to go cold. He has been running an extremely high BABIP since the All-Star Break despite not making consistent contact in the zone. You have to ride the waves with Outman. If someone wants to buy him from you, I would sell.
Justin Verlander (SP – HOU)
Justin Verlander has been elite since the All-Star Break, throwing 37.1 innings with a 2.41 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. However, he has been very lucky with a .227 BABIP and has not looked quite as sharp since moving to Houston. The park change was bad for him as Citi Field was one of the best parks to pitch in, and Houston’s home park can lead to more home runs. I think you can get a ton for Verlander right now, and I would.
Graham Ashcraft (SP – CIN)
Graham Ashcraft has been really good since the All-Star Break, throwing 38.1 innings with a 2.11 ERA. However, he has been extremely lucky with a .228 BABIP, which is crazy considering his high-contact approach and home park. He is also stranding 94% of the runners he allows on base, which is way above what he can reasonably expect to continue to allow. Sell quickly.
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