Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Unlike other fantasy sports, the season is long and drags as the weeks roll on. However, because it is such a grind, fantasy managers can lose focus on what is important and what is not, allowing astute fantasy managers to take advantage.
When we are past the halfway point of the season, we are really beginning to see the trends and who might be underrated or overrated. However, hot streaks and cold streaks can scare your competition, and sometimes underlying numbers aren’t showing up on the surface numbers quite yet. If someone in your league is ready to overreact, then take advantage of their impatience.
Here are some players I would try to buy low and sell high on at this point in the season.
Daily, Weekly and ROS Fantasy Baseball Projections > >
Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice
Buy Low
Bryan Woo (SP – SEA)
Bryan Woo is coming off the IL and has had an up-and-down rookie campaign. However, despite a 4.75 ERA, his underlying numbers are much better with a 3.37 xERA and over a strikeout an inning. He is probably one of the lowest-regarded rookie pitchers, but the skills say he should be one of the higher-regarded ones. As long as he is healthy, I think he is a nice pickup.
Kyle Schwarber (DH, OF – PHI)
Kyle Schwarber has been a complete disaster in the batting average department, hitting just .183 this season. However, his skills have improved, and he should be hitting much closer to .220. At least the power has been elite, but at some point, the BABIP will normalize, and the average will come back up.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (OF, SS – SD)
Fernando Tatis Jr. has been brutal in the second half, hitting .207 with four home runs. However, he has been extremely unlucky on balls in play, and the power metrics are as good as ever. If anyone is willing to sell, now is the time to buy.
Braxton Garrett (SP – MIA)
Braxton Garrett has been up and down this season, but a larger part was damage done in a couple of games. On May 3, Garrett gave up 11 earned runs in 4.1 innings when the Marlins let him just wear a bad outing to not use up the bullpen. Then, on July 21, he had a shaky outing versus the Rockies, allowing six runs in three innings of work. If you subtract just these three games, it drops his ERA from 3.94 to 2.91. Even if you just drop the Atlanta start because you likely avoided it since the Braves are a scary matchup, his ERA would be 3.27. Since that Colorado start, his ERA has been 2.57. He has been elite this year, and no one realizes it.
Sell High
Kyle Harrison (SP – SF)
Kyle Harrison is making his debut this week, and prospect hounds are excited. However, despite being a Giants fan, I am not. He has not gone deeper than four innings in any Minor League start. The walks have been out of control, and the home runs have been an issue. This is a recipe for disaster, even while pitching in a friendly park. If you have been stashing him, waiting to get him on your roster, see if you can flip him now that he is up.
Chas McCormick (OF – HOU)
Chas McCormick has been fantastic this season, hitting .286/.374/.544 with 19 home runs and 13 stolen bases. However, it is all built on pretty unsustainable luck. He has an 80% zone contact rate, which is well below league average, and he is a mediocre-to-poor exit velocity pitcher. He does play great defense, which helps ensure his role, but I think some pretty ugly days are coming down the stretch.
Blake Snell (SP – SD)
Blake Snell has been elite this season, throwing 136 innings with a 2.65 ERA and 176 strikeouts. However, he has been extremely lucky, considering he has the biggest walk rate in the entire MLB. He has been extremely lucky in his strand rate and BABIP. His xERA is 3.95 and he just passed the most innings he has thrown since 2018. He is due for a breakdown.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
