Which players have had Lady Luck on their side recently? Which players has she been ignoring? Which players are riding a hot streak that is simply unsustainable? And which players are just uncharacteristically cold?
Each week in this article, players that are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance will be highlighted in order to assist fantasy managers in how to properly view each one. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.
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MLB Positive & Negative Regression Candidates
Stats up to date through July 31, 2023
Players Due for Positive Regression
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (OF – ARI)
Gurriel has been struggling mightily since making his first All-Star team this year. Over his first 14 games after the break, the 29-year-old outfielder went just 8-for-53 (.151 AVG) with only one extra-base hit, two RBI, and three runs scored. All the while, there were signs that he was largely dealing with plain poor luck, which included a 46.8 HardHit%, 92.6 mph EV, and .170 BABIP.
Gurriel came up with a pair of hits in his five at-bats Monday night in San Francisco. One of those knocks was a big RBI double in the sixth inning. His xBA of .261 during those 14 games immediately following the All-Star break is more indicative of where Gurriel should have been and what to expect the rest of the way. The HR and RBI should return soon too.
Joe Ryan (SP – MIN)
Ryan delivered a masterful three-hit, complete-game shutout against the Red Sox back on June 22. In his six starts since the Minnesota righty has managed to last six frames just twice while surrendering at least three runs in all but one outing. Those struggles resulted in a 7.62 ERA and 1.69 WHIP across 28 1/3 innings. Interestingly enough, while Ryan’s ratios have ballooned, his strikeout rate has surged.
Over these last six starts, Ryan has turned in an incredible 35.8 K% and 15.2 SwStr%. He has also held the opposition to a 69.8 Contact% and 78.8 Z-Contact%. What’s done him in is a .419 BABIP and, even more so, a whopping 13 home runs allowed. It’s laughable to imagine that disastrous 4.13 HR/9 sustaining.
Ryan’s career marks over his 47 MLB starts prior to this ugly downturn were a 1.08 HR/9 and .249 BABIP. He may need a little extra rest here and there as the Twins make a run at an A.L. Central title, but bet on Ryan to get back to being a valuable fantasy asset.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Yan Gomes (C – CHC)
Though they’ve dropped their last two games, the Cubs have been playing some solid baseball (11-6) since the All-Star break. Gomes has been a major part of that, swinging one of the hottest bats in the league over the past couple of weeks. He currently has a nine-game hitting streak working and has delivered five multi-hit performances while hitting safely in 10-of-11 contests. In that span, the veteran backstop has produced an outstanding .405/.432/.714 slash line with a homer, six doubles, and even two triples.
Gomes has been able to put up those strong numbers despite meager metrics. During that stretch, he has managed just a 31.4 HardHit% and 85.2 EV while benefiting from a ridiculous .471 BABIP. His contact numbers (85.5 Z-Contact%, 80.6 Contact%) have been okay, but he’s still chasing out of the zone quite a bit (32.0 O-Swing%). Gomes has had a nice run here, but do not expect it to sustain much longer.
Ryan Yarbrough (KC – SP)
In what has been a great story of guts and determination, Yarbrough has really excelled since returning to the Royals’ pitching staff following a scary injury. Back in early May, the veteran lefty took a 106-plus mph line drive to the face that ended up taking him out of action for two months. Since climbing back atop a big-league mound, he has posted an excellent 2.19 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over four starts.
Yarbrough has been a workhorse since coming back from the IL, logging a minimum of 5 2/3 innings over his four outings with a total of 24 2/3. He has only struck out 15 batters but has only walked two while holding the opposition to a .258 AVG. That final number is where Statcast says he’s been quite fortunate, however, as his xBA against is .303. A 25.6 LD% and 90.4 Z-Contact% back that up.
Yarbrough is getting great results lately, and he is certainly easy to cheer on. Still, his 4.27 xFIP during this nice run of work closely resembles his actual numbers from the bulk of his five-plus years in the majors.
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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros and a 9-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.