Which players have had Lady Luck on their side recently? Which players has she been ignoring? Which players are riding a hot streak that is simply unsustainable? And which players are just uncharacteristically cold?
Each week in this article, players that are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance will be highlighted to assist fantasy managers in how to properly view each one. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.
- Weekly Trade Advice
- Weekly Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Baseball Content
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
MLB Positive & Negative Regression Candidates
Stats up to date through Aug. 21
Players Due for Positive Regression
It appeared as if Jose Ramirez’s two-game suspension following an on-field brawl with the division-rival White Sox might have helped snap the five-time All-Star out of an early-August slump. The knockout blow he delivered to Chicago SS Tim Anderson lit a fire under him, at least briefly. Why wouldn’t it?
Jose Ramirez knocked down Tim Anderson with a vicious right hand pic.twitter.com/ifNmueoknk
– Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) August 6, 2023
Immediately after his return to the Cleveland lineup, Ramirez turned in three consecutive two-hit games, which included a couple of doubles, one RBI and two runs scored. He has since fallen back into an 0-for-12 slide. However, that’s included zero strikeouts, as he has continued to square up the baseball.
Over his last 23 batted-ball events, J-Ram has recorded a 60.9 HardHIt%, 93.6 mph EV, 91.7 Z-Contact% and 21.7 LD%. This is the type of underlying profile that should produce big numbers, and particularly better than Ramirez’s .196 AVG and .220 BABIP this month.
Max Fried came off a lengthy stint on the IL back on Aug. 4 and immediately fired six shutout frames at Wrigley Field. In that impressive outing – his first in three months – Fried allowed just three hits and no walks while striking out eight. He’s turned in serviceable results over his three subsequent starts, but his stats have been nothing close to that and well under expectations for the Atlanta ace.
Across those three starts, Fried has pitched to a 5.17 ERA, 1.66 WHIP and 12-to-3 K/BB ratio in 15 2/3 innings. He’s not struggling with free passes, which is good to see, but the hits have been aplenty (.343 AVG, .396 BABIP). That should not be the case with an encouraging 87.0 mph EV and 56.4 GB%, as evidenced by a .276 xBA.
Fried’s 16.9 K% and 8.7 SwStr% during this stretch are well under career norms. However, his velocity aligns with his previous pre-injury form, so the whiffs should pick up. Fried is a starting pitcher to bet on the rest of the way this season.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Right along with his team as a whole, Jeff McNeil has had an overall disappointing season with the bat to this point. Of late, however, the 2022 batting-title winner has looked more like last year’s version of himself.
McNeil’s three-hit effort Monday night was his third such performance over his last nine games. Further, he has hit safely in six straight games and 14 of his last 15 going back to Aug. 7. In that span, the versatile veteran has posted a .361/.394/.508 slash line with two homers, three doubles, 10 RBI and 12 runs.
So, is McNeil an in-season sleeper to target for the stretch run of the season? It’s tough to imagine him keeping this up given his hit profile. During this hot streak, the versatile veteran has managed just an 18.2 LD% and 84.9 mph EV to go with a sub-20 HardHit% in 66 plate appearances. That has left him with a .257 xBA, which is much more in line with where he’s been most of the season.
Logan Allen, along with teammates Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams, has the Cleveland rotation looking potentially very strong for years to come. Allen is sporting a 3.31 ERA with 100 strikeouts through 103 1/3 innings for the Guardians this year. Surprisingly for a rookie, he has actually posted better results here in the later part of the season.
Just when it seemed as if his stamina was wearing thin a bit at the end of July, Allen has rebounded through four starts in August so far, working at least five frames while surrendering two runs or less each time out. Overall, his ERA stands at an excellent 1.96 to go along with a 1.22 WHIP and 22.0 K% across 23 innings this month.
So, where’s the problem? Well, even with great results, Allen is showing signs of tiring down as he approaches a new high in workload for a single year. His average FB velo has dropped from 91.7 to 90.9 mph, while his cutter has fallen from 86.2 to 84.5. In addition, the young southpaw has a lofty 13.2 BB% this month compared to a less concerning 8.1 BB% over his previous 15 starts.
Allen has a 4.74 xFIP sitting behind that actual sub-2.00 ERA here in August. If he fails to continue to outpitch that mark significantly, there will be little fantasy value to derive from him over the next six weeks.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros and a 9-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.
