Which players have had Lady Luck on their side recently? Which players has she been ignoring? Which players are riding a hot streak that is simply unsustainable? And which players are just uncharacteristically cold?
Each week in this article, players that are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance will be highlighted to assist fantasy managers in how to properly view each one. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.
- Weekly Trade Advice
- Weekly Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Baseball Content
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
MLB Positive & Negative Regression Candidates
Stats up to date through August 14, 2023
Players Due for Positive Regression
As many of the top prospects have done over the course of MLB history, Henry Davis has been experiencing his first growing pains. Since his first career two-homer game back on July 21, the first-overall selection of the 2021 MLB Draft has struggled mightily, managing just a .145/.233/.237 slash line with over 86 plate appearances. He’s hit just one homer over his last 20 games, but on the plus side, he has added four doubles, seven RBI and eight runs while drawing nine walks.
That patience at the plate has been a calling card for Davis going back to the beginning of his professional career, as he’s put up an OBPs of .380 and .433 in the Minors over the last two years. He has recorded a 10.7 BB% and kept his K-rate under 22.0% over his first 196 MLB plate appearances.
Davis’ K-rate has ticked up a bit (26.7%) during his current 20-game drought, but his plate discipline (10.5 BB%, 31.1 Chase%) and batted-ball profile have remained mostly positive. The former University of Louisville star has produced a 42.6 HardHit% and 22.2 LD%. Those marks and an 85.7 Z-Contact% should serve Davis far better than a .189 BABIP going forward.
Tarik Skubal has made five starts since the All-Star break. The results have been up and down on a regular routine. Between three sub-par outings and two strong ones, he has posted a 5.55 ERA and 1.36 WHIP across 24 1/3 innings to this point in the second half. Still, his underlying marks have remained quite encouraging.
Skubal has turned in a 24.5 K%, 37.3 Chase% and 11.6 SwStr% while issuing only four free passes during this stretch. Furthermore, he has allowed just one home run, keeping the ball on the ground at a 52.8-percent clip and maintaining an average EV below 90 mph. All of this has produced a 3.05 xFIP.
Stick with Skubal, especially when working on his home mound. He has yet to surrender a single earned run over 18 1/3 frames in Detroit this year.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Jeimer Candelario (1B, 3B – CHC)
Jeimer Candelario has been a hitting machine since joining the Cubs back on Aug. 1, slashing .425/.489/.625 with a homer and five doubles across 45 plate appearances. He has only driven in three runs in 11 games, but the 29-year-old deadline acquisition scored nine times and even swiped a bag.
No one will maintain a .425 AVG for very long, of course. The question is how much to expect Candelario to fall off. His batted-ball profile during this hot streak suggests the decline will be very substantial. Candelario has recorded just a 31.3 HardHit%, 86.1 mph EV and 18.8 LD%. That combination has placed his xBA at .298. The safe bet is that his AVG comes in even a little lower than that the rest of the way. Candelario has been a .260 hitter going back to 2020.
After highlighting a current Tigers’ starting pitcher above, a former Detroit hurler comes into focus here. Michael Lorenzen was utterly brilliant during a complete-game no-hitter against the Nationals last Wednesday. Before that, he allowed just two runs over eight strong frames in Miami.
This has been his month of August since being dealt to Philadelphia: 2 ER, 6 H, 5 BB, 10 K in 17 IP.
Michael Lorenzen throws the 14th no-hitter in Phillies history. His family’s reaction is everything. ? pic.twitter.com/9NARDYMwK0
– MLB (@MLB) August 10, 2023
Obviously, it’s easy to project some negative regression for a pitcher coming off a no-no, but Lorenzen could not have asked for a better pair of matchups to begin his stint in Philly. The Nationals and Marlins currently rank 19th and 26th, respectively, in runs per game. Lorenzen has enjoyed a ridiculous .111 BABIP despite a 43.5 HardHit% and 91.6 mph EV.
Lorenzen’s .227 xBA over his last 17 frames is still solid but far higher than the .107 AVG against him. His 5.38 xFIP is much more concerning.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros and a 9-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.
