Which players have had Lady Luck on their side recently? Which players has she been ignoring? Which players are riding a hot streak that is simply unsustainable? And which players are just uncharacteristically cold?

Each week in this article, players that are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance will be highlighted in order to assist fantasy managers in how to view each one. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.

The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.

MLB Positive & Negative Regression Candidates

Stats up to date through August 28, 2023

Players Due for Positive Regression

Edouard Julien (2B – MIN)

Julien has enjoyed a terrific rookie campaign for the Twins overall. In 81 games, he’s been as advertised with an impressive .378 OBP, .856 OPS, 12.7 BB%, and 11 homers across 292 plate appearances. The numbers have tailed off a bit over the last few weeks, though.

With a 4-for-5 performance on Aug. 16 against the Tigers being his only multi-hit effort in the last three weeks, Julien has produced just a .667 OPS with three extra-base hits over his last 17 games. While the 33.3 K% definitely needs to improve, his 50.0 HardHit% and 91.2 mph EV remain encouraging. His 36.7 LD% and 90.7 Z-Contact% are even more so.

Julien’s .274 xBA and 14.0 BB% during this span suggest he will be getting aboard and coming around to score plenty of runs for the Twins down the stretch. He has also already shown the ability to drive the ball out of the yard earlier in the year. There should be at least a few more deep drives to come as well.

435 ft ? from Edouard Julien.

The @Twins infielder swats his farthest MLB roundtripper as he leads qualified AL rookies in OPS (.860): pic.twitter.com/gWqbQy7FIk

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) August 26, 2023

Brady Singer (SP – KC)

Singer has really labored over his last two starts after appearing to have regained last year’s breakout form. During a five-start span from July 22 to Aug. 14, the 27-year-old righty posted a 2.45 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and 35-to-6 K/BB rate across 33 innings. He had backed those numbers up with a 51.2 GB%, 90.5 mph EV, and 74.8 Contact%. His 3.32 xFIP suggested a bit of decline would likely come, but so far, there’s been a significant overcorrection.

Singer’s last two outings have seen him surrender 10 runs (8 ER) on a whopping 18 hits (3 HR) and three walks across just 7 2/3 frames. Despite maintaining a 51.5 GB%, 87.3 mph EV, and 70.6 Contact%, the 45 batters Singer has faced in his last two starts have managed to hit .429 with a .500 BABIP. That is highly unlikely to continue much longer. Singer has also kept up a strong 14.0 SwStr% and 30.6 chase% over these unfortunate efforts.

Players Due for Negative Regression

Josh Rojas (2B,3B – SEA)

After disappointing in Arizona during the first half, Rojas was dealt to Seattle back at the July deadline. Since then, his bat has been rejuvenated, and he looks more like the guy who was a solid contributor for the Diamondbacks over the last two years.

Initially, it looked like more of the same from Rojas, as he went 0-for-13 in his first four games for the Mariners. However, Rojas has found his swing over the last 14 games, putting up a .367/.415/.592 slash line with three homers, 10 RBI, 16 runs, and four steals across 53 plate appearances. He is giving the red-hot Mariners consistent production from the keystone for really the first time all season.

Obviously, those numbers are not sustainable for Rojas, or really almost anyone for that matter. The 29-year-old has benefitted from a ridiculous .441 BABIP despite a 35.1 HardHit%, 87.5 mph EV, and 22.2 LD%. Combined with a sub-80.0 Contact% (83.8 Z-Contact%), those marks have resulted in a .263 xBA during this hot streak. That’s right in line with Rojas’ .264 and .269 batting averages in the last two seasons.

Javier Assad (SP – CHC)

Assad has really provided depth to the Cubs’ rotation of late. Through his last four turns, the 26-year-old native of Mexico has cruised to the tune of a 2.13 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and .174 AVG across 25 1/3 innings. It is important to point out, however, that each of his last three opponents currently ranks among the bottom seven MLB teams in runs per game this season.

Assad’s 17.3 LD% and 45.3 GB% during this four-start run are fairly promising, but with a 40.0 HardHit%, 83.7 Contact% (91.3 Z-Contact%), and mere 7.1 SwStr%, his .181 BABIP is slated to soar soon. In fact, Assad has a .267 xBA against in this stretch, along with a 4.58 xFIP. Given that he doesn’t offer much strikeout upside, Assad should be viewed as little more than a risky, matchup-based streamer despite his recent stellar ratios.

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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros and a 9-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.