Which players have had Lady Luck on their side recently? Which players has she been ignoring? Which players are riding a hot streak that is simply unsustainable? And which players are just uncharacteristically cold?
Each week in this article, players that are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance will be highlighted to assist fantasy managers in how to properly view each one. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.
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MLB Positive & Negative Regression Candidates
Stats up to date through Aug. 7, 2023
Players Due for Positive Regression
After missing almost all of June and July, Aaron Judge has now played 10 games since returning from IL. So far, the results have not been what fantasy managers were anticipating. The 2022 AL MVP has come up with just seven hits and three RBI over 41 plate appearances (31 at-bats). Only one of those seven hits left the yard, and that came back on July 29.
Judge did provide some encouragement this past Monday, snapping out of an 0-for-12 skid by going 2-for-4 with a double. There should be much more of that to come. His underlying metrics through this dry spell have actually been monstrous, as Judge has recorded a 97.9 mph EV, 63.6 HardHit%, 27.3 Barrel% and 27.3 LD%. He’s actually walked (10) more than he has struck out (nine), and his .226 AVG and .355 SLG since rejoining the Yankees’ lineup should be far higher.
It’s been a season full of frustrating inconsistency for Aaron Nola. The 30-year-old righty has an ERA north of 4.50 and the highest home-run rate of his career (1.63 HR/9) through 23 starts. Nola should have been in a prime spot to get things turned around over the past month, as his last five starts have all come against opponents that rank among the bottom eight in the league in runs per game.
That has not panned out for Nola. Instead, he posted a 5.64 ERA (3.54 xFIP) while continuing to struggle with the long ball (eight HR allowed) in those five outings. So, where’s the silver lining? Well, it’s in the peripherals.
In 30 1/3 innings during that stretch, Nola turned in an excellent 33-to-4 K/BB ratio. His aggressive attacking of the zone definitely leads to some of the homers, but an average EV barely above 90 mph and a 41.3 FB% should not result in 2.37 HR/9 and a 21.1 HRFB%. Nola’s marks in those categories over his previous 82 starts were 1.14 and 12.4%, respectively. That’s quite a sample.
Expect Nola to deliver something closer to his season-long 3.81 xFIP the rest of the way while continuing to rack up the punchouts (25.1 K%). He should also be in line for some victories as the Phillies chase a second consecutive playoff spot.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Johan Rojas made the leap from Double-A up to the Bigs following the All-Star break and has, so far, displayed the skillset that made him a top-five prospect in the Phillies organization. Over 17 MLB games, the rookie speedster has hit .326 with three doubles, eight RBI and five runs while going a perfect 4-for-4 in steal attempts. He’s been as advertised in center field, as well.
The future should be bright for Rojas, but right now, he is vastly overperforming his metrics with the bat. A 26.5 HardHit%, 87.6 mph EV and 13.8 LD% leave him with a .236 xBA. Additionally, regardless of how fast he is, a .438 BABIP simply isn’t sustainable. Rojas does possess the type of elite speed that will lead to an increase in batting average on groundballs put in play, but he is simply not a .300-plus caliber hitter at this point.
Touki Toussaint (SP, RP – CWS)
With veterans Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito shipped out of Chicago at the trade deadline, opportunities have opened up for other pitchers to prove something in the White Sox rotation. Touki Toussaint was claimed off waivers from Cleveland back in June and has been pretty solid over nine appearances (five starts) since, pitching to a 3.82 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 22.9 K% across 37 2/3 innings.
Toussaint has logged at least five innings in five of his last six outings, four of which have been starts. Though he allowed four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings against the Rangers’ loaded lineup this past Thursday, Toussaint surrendered just five hits and tied the second-highest strikeout total of his career with nine.
Still, for those eyeing potential sleepers for pitching depth down the stretch run, an alarmingly high 14.0 BB% and luckily low .217 BABIP are cause for concern.
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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros and a 9-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.