We’ve been waiting a long time for the unsigned free-agent RB dominoes to start falling, and the first one has finally toppled. Ex-Cowboy Ezekiel Elliott has agreed to a one-year contract with the Patriots that could be worth up to $6 million.

Here’s what we think this signing will mean for the players involved.

Ezekiel Elliott Signs with New England

Effect on Ezekiel Elliott for 2023

Elliott averaged 1,514 yards from scrimmage and 11.4 touchdowns a year over his seven seasons with the Cowboys. He finished as a top-five fantasy scorer (half-point PPR) at running back in three of his first four seasons in Dallas, and he was a top-12 scorer at the position every year until 2022 when he finished RB19.

But Zeke just turned 28 and has a lot of mileage on the odometer — 2,274 carries and 316 receptions if you include playoff games. Elliott’s efficiency fell off last year. He averaged a career-low 3.8 yards per carry and had only 17 catches for 92 yards. But Elliott did manage to punch in 12 touchdowns.

No longer regarded as a player capable of carrying a backfield, Elliott will complement incumbent Patriots starter Rhamondre Stevenson, a third-year back who rolled up 1,461 scrimmage yards for the Patriots in 2022. It would probably take a Stevenson injury for Zeke to approach 1,000 yards from scrimmage, and last year’s paltry receiving totals suggest that we won’t be seeing Elliott on obvious passing downs.

It’s possible, however, that Elliott could be the Patriots’ primary goal-line back this season. As Ian Hartitz of Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life noted shortly after the signing was announced, Elliott scored a touchdown on 56.3% of his carries inside the 5-yard line last season, the fourth-best rate in the league. Stevenson scored a touchdown on only 28.6% of his carries inside the 5.

Effect on Rhamondre Stevenson for 2023

Stevenson had 59% of New England’s 356 RB carries last season. It’s possible he has a similar share of the rushing load this season, and Elliott takes most of the carries that were going to Damien Harris and the other running backs on the Patriots roster last season. (The Elliott signing pretty much torpedoes any 2023 fantasy value that Pierre Strong, Kevin Harris or Ty Montgomery may have had.)

But the Elliott signing could limit Stevenson’s TD potential, lowering his ceiling and putting at least a slight dent in his overall fantasy value.

With the news of the Elliott signing, I dropped Stevenson from RB11 to RB12 in my half-point PPR rankings. Full disclosure: I had already dropped Stevenson a couple of spots earlier in the summer when the Patriots were kicking the tires on another free-agent running back, Dalvin Cook.

Effect on Fantasy Football Draft Rankings for 2023

I’ve moved Elliott up to RB47 in my half-point RB rankings. There’s a good chance he’ll finish higher than that, but his potential ceiling certainly isn’t what it used to be, so I’m still ranking him below a number of backups whom I believe offer higher upside.

The Patriots’ signing of Elliott closes the door on a possible return to Dallas and would seem to bode well for Tony Pollard, who, for the moment, has the Dallas backfield largely to himself. But it’s possible the Cowboys could bring in another veteran to complement Pollard.

And now we wait for those other unsigned free-agent RB dominoes to fall — namely, Cook, Leonard Fournette and Kareem Hunt.

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