Here are a few of the players I’m avoiding in 2023 fantasy football drafts. Upgrade to our premium subscription to view my full list of 2023 players to avoid.
Fantasy Football Draft Players to Avoid
Kenneth Walker (SEA) | ECR: RB17, 45th overall ADP
Despite his impressive performance in 2022 and his current expert consensus ranking (ECR) as the RB17, there are reasons to consider Kenneth Walker slightly overrated for the upcoming 2023 fantasy season.
Late-Season Surge: In 2022, Walker emerged as a valuable fantasy asset, finishing as the RB9 in points per game and the RB8 from Weeks 6-17 after Rashaad Penny‘s injury. His increased workload and production during this period were a boon for fantasy managers who drafted him late. However, it’s important to consider the circumstances surrounding his success. He had zero competition and benefited significantly from volume to boost his numbers.
Underwhelming Receiving Ability: While Walker demonstrated his ability as a rusher, he underwhelmed as a receiver. His limited involvement in the passing game is a concern, as fantasy points in point per reception (PPR) formats heavily rely on receptions. Walker’s deficiency in this area could limit his overall fantasy value.
Low Rushing Success Rate: Despite his notable rushing performances, Walker had a low rushing success rate, ranking second-to-last among rushers with at least 100 carries. This raises questions about his efficiency and consistency as a runner. Fantasy managers rely on reliability and productivity from their running backs, and Walker’s struggles in this area are a cause for concern. Per FantasyPros boom-or-bust report, Walker owned the second-highest bust rate (29%) among RBs inside the top 20 last season.
Competition from Zach Charbonnet: The addition of Zach Charbonnet in the second round of the 2023 draft adds another layer of uncertainty to Walker’s fantasy outlook. Charbonnet brings an impressive skill set, excelling as a receiver and displaying high efficiency as a rusher. The former UCLA running back posted the 5th-highest PFF receiving grade and tied for first in receptions per game (3.7) among his draft class. He also finished with the highest positive run rate (57%) and lowest bust rate (4%) among drafted running backs. With Charbonnet likely to earn playing time and potentially cut into Walker’s touches, there is a legitimate concern about the second-year back’s workhorse upside.
Red-zone role: KW3 finished with the fourth-highest red-zone rush share last season (80 percent) but scored only two rushing TD as Seattle struggled to convert in the red zone (sixth-worst). The majority of his nine rushing TDs came from outside the 10-yard line. Walker posted +3.5 rushing TDs over expectation as a rookie.
It’s possible that Charbonnet sees an expanded role as a goal-line rusher for Seattle to improve in this area of the field. As a freshman at Michigan, Charbonnet scored 11 rushing TDs from the red zone while competing for touches with future NFL running back Hassan Haskins.
Considering these factors, fantasy managers should be cautious when evaluating Kenneth Walker as the RB17. While he showcased his explosiveness and ability to handle a heavy workload in 2022 – although he did miss two games and dealt with a sports hernia early on – concerns about his receiving skills, low rushing success rate and the presence of Zach Charbonnet suggest that Walker may not be the workhorse much hope for in the 2023 season.
I think Walker is a much better play in best ball than in traditional redraft formats, where you won’t feel the bust games nearly as badly. Because his explosive skill set definitely lends itself to large spike weeks that can be massive in a one-week sample size. He finished 12th in the top-24 fantasy RB finisher rate in 2022 (64%).
And Walker’s ADP declining more than a full round since June, I’ve actually found myself more open to selecting him. Again, when prices move on players, you need to alter expectations. Because if Walker stays healthy, he’s probably going to finish as back-end RB1, high-end RB2. I’d still bet he finished somewhere in the 255-touch range (achieved with just 15 touches per game, very close to his FantasyPros’ projection of 257) and that volume locks him in as a top-20 fantasy RB. He averaged 17 touches per game in 15 games played last season after starting the year in a committee with Rashaad Penny. Every running back who earned 255 touches last season finished as a top-20 fantasy RB.
However, I still issue that you should proceed with caution because I don’t believe that the ceiling case is there for Walker if he isn’t gobbling the majority of high-value touches (goal-line, receptions, etc.) in his backfield/offense. Think he’s leaning more toward the “floor” play versus an actual bust play with his declining best ball ADP. But it just might be a bumpy ride given the circumstances I’ve laid out. And his redraft ADP remains high on Yahoo and Sleeper (RB14, 33rd overall). It was 29th overall when I wrote about Walker back at the start of June.
Specifically in Walker’s draft range, I’d much rather prefer J.K. Dobbins, Miles Sanders, Justin Fields or Christian Watson.
Dameon Pierce (HOU) | ECR: RB21, 61st overall ADP
While Dameon Pierce had a promising rookie season in 2022 and currently holds an ECR (Expert Consensus Ranking) as the RB21, there are factors to consider that may suggest he is overrated for the 2023 fantasy season.
Uncertain Role in a New Offensive System: The Texans have a new coaching staff in place, which adds an element of uncertainty to Pierce’s role in the offense. With the arrival of Devin Singletary, who presents a credible threat to Pierce’s workload, it’s unclear how the backfield distribution will unfold. Pierce’s status as a bell cow and his involvement as a receiver are both up in the air, making it difficult to project consistent fantasy production. A lack of receiving is particularly problematic should the Texans find themselves trailing in many of their games. Ultimately, I’m not afraid of missing out on a two-down grinder back for the Houston Texans. Their offense ranks 28th in aggregate team ADP.
Dependence on Volume and Concerns about Durability: Pierce’s success in 2022 was largely predicated on the volume of carries he received. However, as the season progressed, he showed signs of breaking down and eventually suffered a season-ending ankle injury. Relying solely on volume as the main source of fantasy production can be risky, especially if Pierce’s workload is not guaranteed or if he faces durability issues.
Competition from Devin Singletary: The addition of Devin Singletary to the Texans’ backfield further clouds Pierce’s fantasy outlook. While Singletary may not completely supplant Pierce as the team’s lead rusher, his presence and potential involvement in the passing game could limit his opportunities and hinder his fantasy value. Singletary is better than any other RB Pierce was competing with last season in Houston between JAGs like Rex Burkhead, Mike Boone and Dare Ogunbowale.
And Singletary has shown that he can carry large amounts of volume at the NFL level after finishing last season 15th in opportunity share (59%) despite the presence of second-round rookie James Cook. Pierce earned a 60% opportunity share last season. Singletary also finished with a career-high PFF rushing grade in 2022 (85.1, 10th), two slots higher than Pierce (84.8, 12th). Singletary’s pass-blocking abilities also add another dimension to his potential role, potentially affecting Pierce’s playing time on passing downs.
Draft Capital: Pierce was selected in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. And unfortunately, history has not been kind to RBs with Pierce’s rookie-year profile. The list of Day 3 rookie RBs that rushed for 900-plus yards but were limited to fewer than 200 receiving yards/30 receptions includes Pierce, Tyler Allgeier, Elijah Mitchell, Zac Stacy, Alfred Morris, Mike Anderson, Olandis Gary and Ronald Moore. The vast majority of them failed to live up to their rookie-year expectations.
Considering these factors, fantasy managers should approach Dameon Pierce with caution. While he showed promise in his rookie season, the uncertainty surrounding his role/upside in a below-average Texans’ offense, the potential competition from Devin Singletary, and concerns about his reliance on volume and durability raise doubts about his ability to deliver consistent fantasy production.
Pierce has fallen in best ball ADP (as RBs tend to do), but his ADP is stagnant in redraft ADP (44th overall, RB19).
In Pierce’s draft range, I’d much rather prefer Miles Sanders, J.K. Dobbins, Cam Akers, James Conner, Chris Godwin, Jerry Jeudy, Christian Watson or Calvin Ridley.
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