Here are a few of the players I’m avoiding in 2023 fantasy football drafts. Upgrade to our premium subscription to view my full list of 2023 players to avoid.

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Fantasy Football Draft Players to Avoid

Tee Higgins (CIN) | ECR: WR13, 28th overall ADP

Despite being regarded as the ECR fantasy WR13, there are valid reasons to consider Tee Higgins overrated for the upcoming 2023 season.

Two-Year Sample Size: With a two-year sample size of playing alongside Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, we have a clearer picture of Higgins’ performance. In games where both Burrow and Chase were healthy, Higgins has averaged fewer than 12 fantasy points per game in half PPR. This level of production raises concerns about his ability to consistently deliver low-end fantasy numbers while playing alongside Chase.

Impact of Ja’Marr Chase: When Ja’Marr Chase was absent from the lineup (limited to just four games), Higgins’ per-game average jumped to 15.5 fantasy points. Based on his performance with Chase in the lineup, Higgins’ 11.8 points per game would have finished as the WR19 last season and WR23 in 2021. Considering these numbers, it’s reasonable to question whether Higgins truly warrants his current ECR WR12 ranking.

Points per Game Ranking: In terms of points per game, Higgins finished as the WR20 last season. While he has shown flashes of WR1 fantasy potential, his overall performance places him outside the top-tier wide receiver category. This raises doubts about his ability to consistently produce at the level expected of a WR13.

Taking these factors into account, Tee Higgins may be overrated as the ECR fantasy WR13 for the 2023 season. His two-year sample size suggests that his production is relatively modest, especially when Ja’Marr Chase is on the field. With an average of fewer than 12 fantasy points per game in those situations, Higgins’ current ranking appears inflated.

Considering his points per game ranking from last season and the potential impact of Chase, fantasy managers should approach Higgins with caution and consider him more as a mid-WR2 option rather than a fringe top-12 wide receiver.

Per the FantasyPros WR boom-or-bust report, Higgins finished with the fourth-highest WR2 finish rate (top-24) in 2022.

Higgins also finished sixth in fantasy points scored over expectation in 2022. He was the WR41 in expected fantasy points per game last season. Between Adam Thielen and Allen Robinson. Higgins also commanded just 12 red-zone targets (same as Tyler Boyd) and a mediocre 20 percent red-zone target share.

In Higgin’s draft range, I prefer Mark Andrews, Amari Cooper, DK Metcalf and Chris Olave.

Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) | ECR: WR31, 76th overall

Despite his potential as the projected No. 1 wide receiver for the Colts and his current ECR as the WR31, there are reasons to consider Michael Pittman overrated for the upcoming 2023 fantasy season.

Limited Passing Volume: The Colts’ offense is expected to be run-heavy, which poses a challenge for Pittman’s fantasy production. With a low volume of passing attempts, there may be fewer opportunities for Pittman to accumulate targets and make a significant impact in fantasy. This limitation in passing volume is a considerable concern for his fantasy value.

Uncertainty at Quarterback: The Colts’ quarterback situation is another red flag for Pittman’s fantasy outlook. The likely starter, Anthony Richardson, is a rookie and may not provide the level of accuracy and consistency necessary to fuel Pittman’s success. While spike weeks are possible with Richardson’s big arm and Pittman’s talent — 93% route participation and 27% target share last season — the overall consistency may be lacking, leading to an unpredictable fantasy performance.

Potential Competition: The emergence of second-year wide receiver Alec Pierce adds another layer of uncertainty to Pittman’s role. Pierce, known for his deep-threat abilities, could potentially put up similar production or even share spike weeks with Pittman as a better “fit” with his rookie QB. With a lower ADP than Pittman, Pierce represents a value option for fantasy managers and raises questions about Pittman’s ability to be the sole standout in the Colts’ receiving corps.

Considering these factors, it is reasonable to be skeptical of Michael Pittman’s fantasy outlook for the 2023 season. While he holds the potential to deliver spike weeks if used more downfield — recall that Pittman posted a 10.3 average depth of target (aDOT) as a sophomore when he finished top-20 in yards per route run, PFF receiving grade and total fantasy points scored (half-PPR) — the limitations in sheer passing volume, uncertainty at quarterback, and potential competition from Alec Pierce and/or Josh Downs make it difficult to envision Pittman returning anything more than WR3 fantasy value. He finished as a WR2 or higher in just 33% of his games last season, which was third-worst among top-24 overall scorers.

In Pittman’s draft range, I prefer Diontae Johnson, Marquise Brown, Kyle Pitts, Tyler Lockett, Mike Williams, Brandon Aiyuk and Darren Waller.

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